
伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊罕见连发24条社交媒体帖文,称伊朗武装力量已将敌方力量从南部海域击退至阿拉伯海并将很快把他们赶出阿拉伯海。与此同时,美国总统特朗普两次在社交媒体发布霍尔木兹海峡地图并将其标注为“特朗普海峡”。伊朗革命卫队同日扣押一艘美军水下无人机。市场对紧张局势作出反应,布伦特原油和WTI原油价格均大幅上涨。文章指出双方均表达谈判意愿,但具体内容尚不明朗。
AI-generated summary
霍尔木兹海峡是全球重要的石油运输通道,伊朗和美国在此地区长期存在对立。伊朗曾多次威胁封锁海峡,美国则维持海上军事存在以确保航行自由。
一张霍尔木兹海峡的地图,被美国总统特朗普改了新名字。
美东时间9月28日,特朗普在社交媒体晒出霍尔木兹海峡的地图,将其标注为“特朗普海峡”。
就在两天前的26日,他发了一张相同的地图,叫法也一模一样。
但与28日发生的另一件事相比,这些都算不得稀奇。
连发24条帖文,穆杰塔巴罕见发声
极少公开发声的伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊,28日在社交媒体密集“现身”,一口气连发24条社交媒体帖文。
其中最“硬气”的一条是:伊朗武装力量“已将敌方力量从南部海域击退至阿拉伯海,并将很快把他们赶出阿拉伯海”。
穆杰塔巴亲自下场发帖称“将敌人赶出阿拉伯海”
自今年3月接任最高领袖以来,穆杰塔巴多数时间“隐身”,亲自发声实属罕见。此次一次性连发24条,自然“非比寻常”。
而这,似乎更代表着伊朗当前的一种姿态。
美伊在霍尔木兹海峡展开多轮快速“攻防”
回看美伊在霍尔木兹海峡近期的“攻防”,节奏很快。
据伊朗学生通讯社等媒体报道,9月中旬,伊朗的方案通过调解方递抵华盛顿,25日由外长阿拉格齐在联大记者会正式公布——海峡可在7天内重新开放,条件是美方解除海上封锁、解冻伊朗资产等;
26日,特朗普表态:“我拒绝了他们的提议……我拒绝了他们的交易。”
但他随后补了一句,算是为当前局面留下“活口”:“他们想达成协议,我觉得这很好,我也喜欢达成协议。”
27日,阿拉格齐接受美国NBC采访再放重话:“伊朗已做好恢复战争准备, 哪怕这意味着爆发‘末日之战’。”
好在话虽重,但伊朗并没有关死外交通道。用阿拉格齐的话说:“我们也随时准备进行外交接触。选择权在特朗普总统手中。”
谁更在乎这条海峡?
伊朗这边,最高领袖连发24条帖文,喊话“将敌人赶出阿拉伯海”。
不止口头表态,革命卫队同日还披露,在霍尔木兹海峡扣押了一艘美军水下无人机,用实际军事行动释放强硬信号;
美国那边,特朗普把一张改名的地图发了两回,外加27日他在接受阿克西奥斯新闻网电话采访时透露,预计本周将继续与伊朗谈判。
谁更在乎这条海峡?眼下都没明说。
但市场却已先行作出反应:截至9月28日收盘时,全球原油价格全线暴涨。其中,布伦特原油大涨3.63%飙升至每桶107.95美元,美原油(WTI)更是暴涨4.06%冲至每桶96.16美元。
此刻,距美国中期选举还有35天(11月3日)。而油价的每次涨幅,都是执政党选情的负资产,这也让美国政府要在强硬姿态和油价波动之间权衡。
至于伊朗要的谈判和美方说的谈判,是不是同一件事,谁也不知道。
故事没有终局,且看下一回合。
作者:王曦
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
布伦特原油价格在未来两周内可能继续波动,若霍尔木兹海峡局势进一步紧张,有望突破110美元/桶关口
Likely · Within weeks
伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在未来一周内可能继续通过社交媒体发布强硬言论,以施压美方在谈判中做出让步
Possible · Within days

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