Chinese President Xi Jinping is about to visit the United States and meet with President Donald Trump. The outside world is paying attention to whether Trump will once again propose to Xi Jinping to "release Jimmy Lai" in person after his visit to China in May this year.
Jimmy Lai, the founder of Hong Kong's "Next Media", was arrested at the end of 2020 and remanded in custody for more than five years. In December 2025, he was found guilty of "conspiracy to collude with foreign forces" under the Hong Kong National Security Law and was sentenced to 20 years in prison in February this year. The 78-year-old has been held in solitary confinement in recent years. His family said he was in poor health, and Hong Kong officials accused someone of "fabricating" his health.
When Trump visited China in May, he mentioned Jimmy Lai by name to Xi Jinping, but later described the other party's reaction as "not positive" and called it a "troublesome matter." Chinese underground church pastor Jin Mingri, who was also named, was released from prison in July this year and went to the United States. The outside world regarded it as a direct result of Trump's promotion.
Scholars analyzed to BBC Chinese that Trump would "100%" bring up Jimmy Lai's case again during this meeting. If China releases Li Zhiying at this time, it will be the right time to show off its soft power. However, comprehensive expert judgment shows that the chance of Xi Jinping nodding to let people go is extremely slim.
Precedent of Head of State Diplomacy: Kim Myung Il Case
Trump had already stated when he was running for president in 2024 that he would ensure Jimmy Lai's release if he returned to the White House.
In October 2025, Trump and Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea. After Jimmy Lai was found guilty in December of the same year, Trump revealed that he had made a release request to Xi Jinping, saying that Li was old and in poor health, but did not disclose the specific content of the conversation between the two parties.
In May this year, Trump said on the Air Force One plane after his visit to China that he had mentioned Jimmy Lai and Kim Ming-ri by name to Xi Jinping. Regarding Jimmy Lai's case, Trump quoted the other party as saying: "He told me that would be a tough one." (He told me that would be a tough one.) He described the other party's reaction as "not positive", called Jimmy Lai "his worst nightmare", and admitted that he was not optimistic about the prospect of release.
Jin Mingri is the founder of Zion Church, a Protestant Christian church that is one of the largest underground churches in China. He was arrested last year, released in July this year, and later arranged to be sent to the United States. The outside world viewed this as a result directly contributed to by Trump, but neither China nor the United States responded directly to the incident.
The Kim Myung Il case shows that the direct intervention of the head of state can indeed change the fate of individual prisoners.
"Although fentanyl is sensitive, Jimmy Lai's case has brought the atmosphere to a freezing point."
Elizabeth Larus, adjunct senior researcher at the American think tank Pacific Forum, analyzed to BBC Chinese that the core topics of this meeting focus on artificial intelligence, bilateral trade, and critical mineral supply chains, as well as U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, and China's efforts to get Trump to publicly express his opposition to Taiwan's independence.
However, she believes that Trump will "100%" bring up Jimmy Lai's case again during the meeting, because the case is one of the issues of concern at the highest level of the U.S. government and is currently being handled directly by the White House. It is also an issue that has caused a deadlock in the meeting between the two. Lan Ruosi said: "Although issues such as fentanyl, trade and American citizens in China are sensitive, the Jimmy Lai issue seems to have brought the atmosphere on both sides to a freezing point."
Dr. Li Enhao, a senior fellow at the Georgetown Center for Asian Law, pointed out that there is a cross-party consensus in the US political arena to strive for the release of Jimmy Lai, and civil society organizations have continued to put pressure on the US government. In addition, Trump has received positive support for the Kim Ming-il incident. These incentives will allow Trump and his government to continue to raise the issue of Jimmy Lai.
What are the chances that Beijing will release him?
Lan Ruosi predicts that Trump will try to exert further pressure this time and may use humanitarian reasons, including Jimmy Lai's poor health and her daughter being treated for cancer.
"If Xi Jinping wants to demonstrate China's soft power, now may be an appropriate time to show his magnanimity by releasing Jimmy Lai through medical parole arrangements and allowing him to leave Hong Kong for treatment in the United States," she added. The relevant arrangements could stipulate that Jimmy Lai must serve the remainder of his sentence if he returns to Hong Kong.
Li Enhao believes that even if Li Zhiying's case is described as a "thorny matter," "so far, there is no signal that Beijing will completely refuse to release Li Zhiying, or refuse to discuss Li Zhiying's issue."
Lan Ruosi also estimated that Trump may also raise the case of several American citizens detained in China, which is also a priority of the US government. She analyzed that the United States often makes representations on the issue of political prisoners in China, and is not limited to high-profile cases. The question is how much actual impact such issues have on bilateral relations.
Why is Beijing unwilling to compromise?
Kim Myung-il and Jimmy Lai were both named by Trump. The former has been released to the United States, while the latter has been sentenced to 20 years in prison. Judging from Beijing's public statements, the weight of the two cases is not the same.
After Jimmy Lai was sentenced, the Commissioner's Office of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hong Kong described the United States, the United Kingdom and others as "calling for Jimmy Lai's release" and said that Jimmy Lai's "actions seriously violated the bottom line of the principle of 'one country, two systems', seriously endangered national security, seriously damaged Hong Kong's prosperity and stability and the well-being of citizens, and deserved to be severely punished by law." The Hong Kong SAR government also described Jimmy Lai as having committed "a heinous crime with numerous evidence."
In contrast, China's official response to the Jin Minggri case was quite low-key, saying only that China manages religious affairs in accordance with the law and "we firmly oppose interference in China's internal affairs on so-called religious issues."
Lan Ruosi reminded, "The Chinese Communist Party likes to use the rhetoric of 'one country, two systems' to cover up its stance on Hong Kong governance, but as long as Xi Jinping says a word, things will start to develop in a good direction."
But she thinks this possibility is slim.
Hong Kong government 'has no role'
However, Li Enhao analyzed that even if the Hong Kong government took a tough stance on Jimmy Lai's case in the past, "the direction of the wind can be changed." Whether to release Jimmy Lai is a political decision, and the issue has risen to the level of the China-U.S. Presidential Talks. "The Hong Kong government has no role" and can only implement relevant decisions.
He explained that Hong Kong has the corresponding legal basis. Paragraph 12 of Article 48 of the Basic Law stipulates that the chief executive’s powers include pardoning criminal offenders or reducing their sentences. The article does not expressly provide for how to exercise it, which reflects that the chief executive has great discretion.
The Security Bureau of the SAR responded to the Legislative Council in 2017 that the Chief Executive can commute sentences based on the recommendations of the Long-term Imprisonment Review Committee or the recommendations made by doctors to the Commissioner of Correctional Services. Prisoners can also submit petitions.
However, the "Maintenance of National Security Ordinance" (commonly known as the "Article 23 Legislation") passed in March 2024 empowers the Director of the Correctional Services Department to determine whether the release of a prisoner will be detrimental to China's national security, and will not reduce the sentence of those who are "negative to national security".
"I don't know how long he can wait."
Jimmy Lai's family earlier stated that he lost 10 kilograms in weight after being placed in solitary confinement, and his teeth rotted and his nails fell off. Li Chongen revealed to BBC Chinese that his father "needed someone to help him get up a while ago" and his health was "a lot worse": "To be honest, I don't know how long he can wait."
Sister Li Cai was confirmed to have cancer earlier. In an interview with the British "Times" in September, she said that since her father was imprisoned, he had been calm about everything. He only cried when he learned that his daughter had cancer. "That was the only time he really broke down and cried." Li Chongen currently focuses on taking care of his sister in the UK: "My father is not with my sister, so my sister has lost her father."
Hong Kong Secretary for Security Tang Ping-keung publicly rebutted in February this year, saying that solitary confinement was proposed by Jimmy Lai on his own initiative. Critics "fabricated Jimmy Lai's poor health" and deliberately created a tragic image to "sell miserably" and asked the SAR government to release him on the grounds of health and age.
