On September 3, units of the Yemeni Shiite movement Ansar Allah (Houthis) began an armed clash with troops of the internationally recognized government of Yemen in Tais province in the southwest of the country. In a matter of days, the Houthis took control of several thousand square kilometers of territory, including strategically important facilities on the Red Sea coast.
The Houthi offensive is particularly important for the global fuel market amid tensions between the United States and Iran: the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In the context of the emerging fuel crisis, supplies through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea became one of the fastest ways to transport hydrocarbons, and Saudi Arabia, one of the largest exporters, began unloading oil at terminals on the Red Sea coast. After the resumption of the conflict in Yemen, oil prices began to rise significantly, and Brent oil prices periodically approached $100 per barrel.
One of the most common versions of the outbreak of hostilities is called the influence of Iran: “Ansar Allah” is one of the armed formations close to Tehran, and their operation could be a response to the attacks of the American military on the Islamic Republic. It is alleged that actions in Yemen could be influenced by the resumption of the conflict between the United States and Iran: on July 31, the United States attacked Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launch sites on Larak Island for the first time since July. In response, Tehran launched strikes on American ships in the Strait of Hormuz and US Army installations in the Persian Gulf. After the exchange of blows, the exchange price of Brent exceeded $90 per barrel.
As Ivan Bocharov, program manager of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), author of the Telegram channel “Middle Eastern Kaleidoscope”, noted in a commentary to Lente.ru, in reality, the confrontation in Yemen is more complex in nature: the struggle between the United States and Iran affects mainly the regional context, but not the reasons themselves. The expert pointed to the increased importance of oil transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea after the start of the United States military operation against Tehran.
Yemen's civil war resumed after a cessation of fighting in 2022, but since the truce began, the Houthis have regularly struck commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea belonging to the United States and its allies. The confrontation between the UN-recognized government of Yemen and the Houthis who control the west of the country began back in 2015.
On July 3, 2026, Ansar Allah opened fire on Saudi Arabian military aircraft in Yemeni airspace. It was noted that a group of Saudi military aircraft tried to prevent the landing of an Iranian civilian aircraft at the international airport of the country's capital, Sana'a, however, as stated by Houthi spokesman Yahya Saria, “their attempt failed.”
On July 20, the Houthis announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, calling the decision a response to the blockade of Yemeni airspace. Immediately after the statement, the movement began striking Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.
As analyst Mohammed Albasha notes, the success of the Houthis was affected by differences in the camp of their opponents: in particular, the leader of one of the largest formations, the National Resistance Forces, Tariq Saleh, was accused of treason due to a hasty retreat. Also, according to the expert, the Saudi military left the islands of Zukkar and Mayyoun in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Despite the rapid advance of the Houthis, according to French OSINT analyst Clément Molin, the fighting is characterized by a relatively weak use of FPV drones by the standards of modern warfare. The analyst also pointed to the decline in influence of groups loyal to Saudi Arabia not only due to the actions of the Houthis, but also due to the advancement of formations close to the United Arab Emirates.
Ivan Bocharov notes that Ansar Allah’s capabilities have noticeably increased during the truce, primarily in terms of the use of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones. According to the expert, the Houthis have the opportunity to simultaneously fight opponents within the country and create serious risks for Saudi Arabia, primarily in the field of energy and transport. At the same time, the orientalist emphasized that the main goal of the Houthis is precisely the solution of internal political problems.
On September 10, the Houthis captured the key port city of Mokha on the Red Sea coast. The next day, September 11, the formations took control of the strategic island of Perim in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, dividing the fairway into two parts and located in close proximity to the main shipping channel from the Arabian Sea to the Red Sea.
One possible scenario remains a full-scale ground operation by Saudi Arabia and its allies against the Houthis in Yemen: in 2015, the kingdom launched Operation Storm of Determination, concentrating about 150 thousand soldiers with the participation of allies and American PMCs, but failed. In 2016, Riyadh launched Operation Restore Hope, which continues to this day, to bomb targets in Yemen.
Even before the Houthi offensive began, The Guardian reported on Saudi Arabia's plans for an amphibious assault and a potential ground invasion of Yemen to push the Houthis away from the Red Sea coast and reduce the threat to oil exports. On July 30, the Kingdom's Ministry of Defense announced the creation of an international coalition to protect maritime shipping with the participation of 14 states, including Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan and Sudan.
However, Ivan Bocharov believes that Saudi Arabia will take into account the experience of previous operations and is unlikely to launch a ground invasion of Yemen. The orientalist considered a more likely scenario to be a combination of airstrikes, support for allied Yemeni forces and other instruments of pressure.
The escalation of the conflict also attracted the attention of the United States amid ongoing tensions with Iran: the head of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), Admiral Brad Cooper, urgently flew to Saudi Arabia for emergency coordination meetings. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has repeatedly asked the White House for support with airstrikes against the Houthis, however, according to Axios, Washington does not intend to actively intervene in the conflict. According to The Financial Times, the UK has also not yet responded positively to Riyadh's request.
According to Ivan Bocharov, the United States can provide more active support to Saudi Arabia through intelligence and other military assistance. At the same time, the expert considered it unlikely that the American military would directly participate in ground combat.
On September 11, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced the suspension of "precautionary" operations on the East-West oil pipeline, pumping oil from fields in the east of the country to terminals in the Red Sea. However, satellite images showed damage to compressor stations as a result of the attacks, and the Kingdom’s Foreign Ministry announced a UAV strike from Iraq, which may indicate the involvement of pro-Iranian groups.
As Ivan Bocharov emphasizes, despite the fact that at the moment it is difficult to talk about full control of the Houthis over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, even the threat of such a scenario could significantly affect the global energy market against the backdrop of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The expert also suggested new attacks on ships, primarily belonging to Saudi Arabia and its allies, in the Red Sea.
