The Alternative for Germany party achieved a landslide victory, obtaining 43.8% of the votes, according to preliminary results approved by Public Channel One. However, this result is not enough to guarantee an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament, as the party won 39 seats out of 83.
In contrast, the total number of seats for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is 17.2%, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is 9.3%, and the Green Party is 8.9% - parties that may form a potential government coalition - only 31 seats. The Left Party (8.6%) won eight seats in the new parliament, while the Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition won 5.3% and won five seats.
The question before us in the coming days and weeks is how to form a new government. There are several options, including:
The "Alternative" leads a minority government
It is true that the Alternative for Germany party received the largest number of votes (39 seats), but it did not win an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament (42 seats). While all other parties rule out forming a traditional coalition with this party. The Alternative Party, in turn, adopted the same position before the elections. However, its main candidate, Ulrich Zigmund, backed down on election night, declaring his readiness to cooperate with any party that showed a willingness to implement the policies of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). If he remains alone, he has no choice but to form a minority government. In this case, he will need votes from other parliamentary blocs to pass the bills, as well as to elect Zygmond as prime minister.
According to the decisions of the Christian Democratic Party (CDU), cooperation with the Alternative for Germany is out of the question, which was also ruled out by the Social Democratic Party, the Greens and the Left, especially with regard to the election of the state’s prime minister, who is entrusted with the task of forming the government. He will be elected in three rounds if the first and second fail. Then, the defection of just one representative from his parliamentary bloc is sufficient to enable Ulrich Zigmund to win the position of Prime Minister, especially since the voting process is secret.
Coalition with the "Wagenknecht Alliance" party
It is not unlikely that Sarah Wagenknecht's coalition will destabilize the entire scene and agree to enter into a coalition with the "Alternative." Before the elections, the party ruled out cooperation with the far-right party, but its leader, Sarah Wagenknecht, stated at the same time the necessity of “removing” the Christian Democratic Party, which lost the elections, from power, stressing that the separation wall policy (vis-à-vis the Alternative Party) “failed and the mere attempt to form a coalition based on the separation wall again would be an insult to male and female voters.”
Based on these statements, this small party, which barely passed the five percent hurdle as a minimum to reach Parliament, may determine the political future of the state and even of Germany as a whole. Because if he adheres to ruling out any alliance with Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party, a coalition with the latter's traditional parties is not enough to achieve a majority, which helps the "Alternative" to reach power, whether through an alliance with the "Wagenknecht Alliance" party or through a minority government.
A coalition of five parties
In fact, the only existing option that guarantees the other parties the election of a prime minister from outside the Alternative Party is an alliance of five parties, which have already lost political harmony among themselves. The Christian Democratic and Socialist Union and the Green Party, which have accumulated long experience in joint work in successive governments, constitute only 31 seats between them. Which means that she needs the left and the alliance of Sarah Wagenknecht. The left put forward a basic condition of appointing the state's prime minister, while Sarah Wagenknecht's coalition insists on excluding conservatives, and therefore there is no majority in this case for such an alliance.
Scenario of failure to appoint a state prime minister?
If the process of electing a state's prime minister is prolonged and government work enters a state of stagnation, the possibility of holding new elections may arise. The state constitution of Saxony-Anhalt stipulates three cases for holding new elections:
- Upon failure to elect a prime minister in a second round; The state parliament can dissolve itself by a majority vote of its members.
- When the state parliament decides to dissolve itself by a two-thirds majority; This would not be possible without the votes of the Alternative for Germany party. According to the state constitution, this proposal cannot be submitted until at least six months have passed.
- When the newly elected Prime Minister raises the issue of confidence and loses the vote on it.
In general, until a new prime minister is elected, Sven Schulze, the state prime minister who belongs to the Christian Democratic Party, and his ministers continue their duties in a caretaker capacity.
Edited by: Hassan Zenand
