Aggressive campaigns against refugees and migrants are at the core of the AfD's political identity. However, it was not a deciding factor in the regional parliament elections in Saxony-Anhalt. This is what is shown by the analyzes of opinion polls conducted by the Infratest Dimap Institute on the Sunday in which the elections took place.
Accordingly, the issue of immigration played only a secondary role in determining voters' choice. Issues such as social security, peace in Europe, and economic policy seem to have been more decisive. Even among AfD voters, immigration does not figure prominently. Saxony-Anhalt is among the states with the lowest percentage of foreigners in Germany: the proportion of foreigners is about 9 percent, which is well below the federal average of about 15 percent.
Saxony-Anhalt is also one of the weakest German states economically, as it is characterized by relatively low wages and a shortage of jobs that require high qualifications. The region has been suffering for decades from the migration of qualified personnel.
It is worth noting that the Alternative Party, which in Saxony-Anhalt is classified as a confirmed far-right party, has outperformed its competitor, the Christian Democratic Party, led by current Prime Minister Sven Scholz, in all political areas. In the area of combating crime or asylum policy, twice as many people trust the Alternative's ability to succeed compared to the Christian Democratic Party. Even in economic policy, which is considered one of the traditional core issues of the Christian Democratic Union Party, the Alternative Party is at the forefront.
Election poll: The Alternative Party is closer to the people
The AfD currently seems to be succeeding in establishing a particularly close relationship with many people. 67 percent of voters surveyed by Infrastest Dimap said that the party understood better than other parties that people in Saxony-Anhalt no longer felt safe. More than half of respondents also believe that the AfD is closer to citizens' concerns than other parties.
It seems that many people not only feel that the AfD understands them, but also trust it more than others in its ability to solve the country's problems. When asked which party currently has the best solutions to future challenges, young people in particular mentioned the Alternative Party. But it also tops the answer to this question among older voters.
On the other hand, the results were disastrous for the parties participating in the government in the Council of Ministers headed by Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Among young voters, only 5 percent trust the ability of the Christian Democratic Party and only 3 percent trust the Social Democratic Party to find the best solutions to future issues. It's a harsh judgement.
A warning message to Chancellor Meretz
It seems that many in Saxony-Anhalt also wanted to send a warning message to the federal government in these regional elections, as 59 percent of respondents said it was worth it. The Christian Democrats, as the big losers in the elections, were the most vulnerable to this anger: 58 percent of respondents said that they felt the most anger towards the Chancellor's party.
It is therefore not surprising that Friedrich Merz was asked for support only in a very limited manner by his party's state branch. Many people in the state are dissatisfied with his performance, as his reputation has reached its lowest point in history. In a classification of the degree of satisfaction with prominent politicians, Meretz comes at the bottom of the ranking, with a large difference from the heads of the Alternative Party and the Social Democrats participating in the government.
The AfD made notable gains overall across all segments of the population, particularly among workers and the self-employed. Nearly two-thirds of workers voted for him, as did more than half of self-employed people.
Although the party was able to achieve equal gains between men and women, its electoral base is still clearly male. He received 52 percent of the votes of male voters, while he received only 32 percent of the votes of female voters. However, it is the strongest party among women as well.
It is likely that the decisive factor in his electoral success was his ability to mobilize large numbers of non-voters. The party did not gain additional votes from any other category. Thus, the party benefited more than any other party from the high electoral participation rate, which reached approximately 78 percent.
