Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington on September 24 and will meet with US President Trump. In an exclusive interview with this newspaper, Huang Chongyan, an advisory member of the National Security Council, said bluntly that Xi Jinping's recent series of foreign visits, gray zone operations in the first island chain, and expansion of the surplus with the United States through low-price dumping are all creating "final pressure" before the meeting; externally, he strives for bargaining chips, and internally, he creates a "rising in the east and falling in the west" to ease internal pressure, so that the re-election plan after the 21st Party Congress can proceed smoothly.
Huang Chongyan analyzed that Xi Jinping has carried out a series of foreign visits since the end of August, such as going to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Kyrgyzstan to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders. He then visited Egypt, the first country to join the "Belt and Road" and the first country to recognize the People's Republic of China after the establishment of the Communist Party of China. Recently, he went to India to attend the BRICS Summit. Generally speaking, China's recent external actions are creating and forming "final pressure" before the Trump-Xi meeting.
Huang Chongyan pointed out that China has recently imposed more and deeper gray zone intrusions around the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait, especially in the economic waters of eastern Taiwan and waters adjacent to Japan and the Philippines, raising geopolitical pressure as preparation for negotiations. Economically, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently mentioned that G20 countries should jointly develop countermeasures against China's overcapacity and high-tech non-compliance with international rules. In addition, China's pressure for low-price dumping continues to increase. With its growing trade surplus with the United States in the past few months, China is preparing to talk to the U.S. President about "increased purchases" before the election to create potential negotiating advantages.
Huang Chongyan believes that China's relevant actions are to create conditions for itself, trying to create an image that "can handle the formation of the G2 (Group of Two Countries) by the United States" and the so-called "rising in the east and falling in the west" to ease internal pressures such as the domestic economic downturn; on the other hand, it creates external advantages to gain breathing space for its behavior in the gray area between regions, ensuring that the layout of re-electing China's leader after the 21st Party Congress can proceed smoothly.
From the perspective of the United States, Huang Chongyan analyzed that the core of this U.S.-China summit is "risk control." The above-mentioned geopolitical, economic and other issues are already common issues among democratic countries. In addition to preventing low-price dumping from hitting industries of various countries, all parties also jointly bear the geo-political pressure brought by Beijing's frequent accusations of "Japanese militarism," "Taiwan seeks independence with the United States," and "The Philippines is a pawn of the United States." The United States must maintain its own trade interests while ensuring overall regional security.
Talking about the U.S.-China AI security dialogue that may take place before the Trump-Xi meeting, Huang Chongyan pointed out that AI technology covers front-end deployment, energy infrastructure, chips, semiconductors and other hardware and subsequent applications, which is extremely resource-consuming. While maintaining technological competition, the global democratic camp needs to manage and control related risks to prevent key scientific and technological capabilities and energy from being controlled by authoritarian countries. Otherwise, it will multiply the risks of "CRINK" (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) and create more threats.
If Beijing puts the Taiwan issue on the negotiation table at the Trump-Xi meeting again, how should Taiwan handle itself? Huang Chongyan emphasized that for any country, "the most important way to be a chess player and not a chess piece is to be important enough." From Tsai Ing-wen to Lai Ching-te's government, the core goal has always been to make Taiwan "indispensable" in the geopolitical and global supply chains. Taiwan must be clear about its role in the competition between authoritarian powers and democratic groups. "Taiwan is important enough, and everyone must interact with you and discuss with you; if you think you are a chess piece, you will become a chess piece."
Huang Chongyan emphasized that Taiwan's "indispensability" is also reflected in the overall national policy of the United States. The National Security Strategy (NSS) or National Defense Strategy (NDS) announced by the Trump administration last year focused on Taiwan's position in the first island chain and its security impact on the global supply chain. Instead of worrying, Taiwan should continue to be ambitious; in practice, we have also been maintaining close communication with the United States and other friendly parties to ensure that we are in sync with each other and can respond to various unpredictable developments in China at any time.
