Egg prices in China continue to rise, driven by supply and demand factors

China is the world's largest egg producer, and domestic egg prices have risen significantly recently——

Ask about egg prices at Double Festival market

Kong Dechen Liu Yuting

The price of eggs has increased by 20 to 30 cents per kilogram, 20 to 30 yuan per box, and thousands of yuan per truckload. Recently, egg prices have continued to rise. The latest monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that the national average egg price in the third week of September was 11.83 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%. The wholesale end is also operating at a high level. The average egg wholesale price in Beijing's Xinfadi Market on September 18 increased by nearly 50% compared with the same period last year. Where does the rise in egg prices come from? What impact will it have on consumers?

Consumers’ food baskets are not greatly affected:

“Expensive, but not less delicious”

"6.3 yuan per catty, foreign eggs." In a vegetable market in Beijing, Grandma Su told reporters while carrying a few eggs that she had just weighed. "I don't buy more, just three or five at a time."

There are only two people in Grandma Su’s family. She remembers clearly that a month ago eggs cost more than 5 yuan per pound, and 3 months ago they cost more than 4 yuan. "Eggs are more expensive than pork! The wholesale price of pork is only 6.5 yuan per pound. I bought eggs for free that day for 6 yuan." She paused and said, "But you have to eat eggs every day. You have to eat one when you get up early, and then cook and scramble some eggs. When is the day you don't eat them? You have to buy them even if the price goes up. It's expensive during the holidays, and I think it's normal."

Master Xing, who drives an online ride-hailing service in Beijing, just bought 10 yuan a pound of local eggs. "This type of local eggs costs six to seven yuan per catty in spring, which has indeed increased a lot." He said that although the price has increased, one local egg only costs about 1 yuan, which will not affect daily purchases. "I always go to the Grand Canal Convenience Center to buy. The prices of vegetables there are a bit higher, but they have a wide range of items, so it's convenient. Sometimes I ask about the price, sometimes I don't," said Master Xing.

Ms. Wang, who lives in Zhengzhou, Henan, is more accustomed to buying eggs online. A week ago, she used a group buying coupon to buy a 10-pound box of eggs from the Haoxiang brand near her home. The original price was 69.9 yuan, but after the discount, it was 57.6 yuan. She dug out her purchase records: the same box cost 52 yuan a month ago and 45 yuan three months ago. "The cost of eggs accounts for about 5% to 7% of the total household expenditure on grocery shopping. Although the unit price has increased, it accounts for a small proportion of daily expenses, and it is a rigid necessity and will not affect purchases." Ms. Wang said, "I heard from the vegetable market stall owner that hens lay fewer eggs due to high temperatures in summer and the output dropped. In addition, as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, the demand for mooncakes and pastry processing and stocking increases, and the cost of feed is also high, so the price of eggs rises."

Consumer feelings can be seen more clearly in the data. Monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in the third week of September showed that the national average egg price was 11.83 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.5% from the previous week, rising month-on-month for two consecutive weeks, and reaching the highest price in the past three years. From the wholesale side, the average weekly egg wholesale market price in the fourth week of September was 11.17 yuan per kilogram, 36.4% higher than the same period last year.

On the supermarket side, Sister Huang, who is in charge of the egg area at the Hema Aegean Shopping Park store, also felt the changes. The price of ordinary bulk eggs has been rising, while the pricing of branded eggs is relatively fixed. "Yellow Swan has not increased, and the price of lutein fresh eggs has not increased significantly." Sister Huang said that sales have increased recently, and sales have increased to a certain extent. Because the price of branded eggs is fixed, many customers are still willing to buy high-quality eggs. "The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day stockings are about 50% more than usual. Recently, there have been a lot of people giving gifts to relatives, and the gift boxes are selling well."

The supply-side ledger is clear:

“With fewer chickens, egg prices will definitely be high this year.”

The "seeds" for rising egg prices were planted as early as last year.

At one o'clock in the evening, the Beijing Fresh Agricultural Products Circulation Center located in the Heizhuanghu area of ​​Chaoyang, Beijing, is brightly lit. Farmer Sister Wang is already standing in front of the stall, with rows of egg boxes stacked beside her. Her family has 100,000 chickens and three chicken coops, and she also makes and ships eggs here. It has been her habit for many years to arrive at work at 1 o'clock in the evening.

"We lost money last year because there were fewer chickens, so prices will definitely be higher this year." Sister Wang told reporters while stacking egg boxes. She quoted the wholesale price of the day: 225 yuan per box for foreign eggs and 245 yuan for local eggs, which is 20 yuan more expensive and 360 per box. After a pause, she added: "At the lowest point last year, a box was about 100 yuan, sometimes even dozens of yuan, and a 40-jin bag was less than 100 yuan."

The pressure on the ledger is not just egg prices. Sister Wang said that feed was expensive last year, but it is relatively cheaper this year. "Last year, corn was one dollar, 34 per pound, and this year, it is one dollar, 12 cents. The difference is two cents per pound. As the quantity increases, the price difference becomes larger." In addition to feed, other expenses are also high. She calculated the investment account for reporters: "Our family has 100,000 chickens, and the equipment of three chicken houses has invested 18 million yuan, not including the cost of building a house. It is not just a shed to raise chickens, equipment and electricity are very expensive, and electricity in summer is very expensive. The cost is more than 20,000 yuan. A chicken costs about 30 yuan, and it takes 4 months to raise chickens. The chickens may get sick, and the actual breeding process takes 3 to 5 months. The feed was expensive during the breeding cycle, and the chickens were at a loss throughout the year.”

When it comes to profits and losses, Sister Wang’s tone is calm, but her calculations are clear: “These eggs are currently selling for 4 yuan per pound, and raising chickens is still not profitable. Last year, the price of eggs did not exceed 4 yuan. After this year’s New Year, the market is finally better, and I can make some money, but it is just to make up for last year’s losses.”

The pace of sales is also changing. Sister Wang said that now goods are usually received once a day or two, and the goods that arrive on the same day may not be sold short on the same day. When asked whether egg prices would rise after the holidays, she shook her head: "We can only follow our feelings. It's not us who have the final say, it's the market that has the final say."

Sister Wang’s account book is a microcosm of the laying hen breeding industry in the past year. In 2025, the laying hen breeding industry will experience a trough. Data show that in 2025, the loss per chicken for layer hens will exceed 11 yuan, which is the worst loss in the past 15 years. Egg production has also adjusted back from a record high of 35.885 million tons in 2024 to 34.98 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%.

The direct consequence of the losses is that farmers "don't dare to raise anymore." From October last year to April this year, the supply of eggs in the market has been reduced for seven consecutive months, and the cumulative decline in egg production has been close to 6%. Due to the low number of pen replacements last year, there was an obvious "window period" for new laying hens this year.

In the circulation link, the flow of profits is not complicated. Liu Tong, manager of the market statistics department of Xinfadi, did some calculations: The average price of eggs in Xinfadi in August was 10.14 yuan/kg, which is equivalent to about 5.07 yuan per kilogram, an increase of about 1.7 yuan from 3.38 yuan in the same period last year. From the breeding side, the loss per catty of eggs in the same period last year was about 0.5 yuan, and the profit per catty this year was about 1.2 yuan - the profit swing range was also about 1.7 yuan. "The money from this round of price increases has mainly gone back to the breeding end, leaving not much in the middle."

Many factors push up prices:

"Price fluctuations are a normal manifestation of market rules"

Zhu Ning, an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that this round of rising egg prices is the result of the joint action of the consumer and supply sides. Currently, it is the traditional peak season for egg consumption, and the supply side is in a "rest period" coupled with production capacity reductions.

Looking at the consumer side, "Summer is the peak season for catering consumption, and food processing plants will stock up in advance for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day." Zhu Ning said, "Since August, the national egg market has officially entered the peak season for stocking. Food factories have increased their purchases, and some traders have stockpiled after the price has risen. Multiple demands have jointly pushed egg prices higher."

Looking at the supply side, "There is no shortage of eggs in the wholesale market. In the past few weeks when egg prices have risen to the extreme, the number of eggs on the Xinfadi market has increased significantly month-on-month. Some chicken farms are taking advantage of the high egg prices to increase shipments. This shows that there is not a real shortage on the supply side, but that the breeding side has accelerated the pace of shipments as prices rise." Liu Tong said.

As egg prices rise in the domestic market, some Western media have also become "concerned", using words such as "a 10-year high" and "painful" to make some people who don't understand the situation mistakenly believe that "Chinese people cannot afford eggs."

What are the facts?

Let’s look at the basics first. China is the world's largest egg producer, and egg production has ranked first in the world since 1985. In 2025, the per capita possession of eggs will be 21.5 kilograms, 87% higher than the world average. The export volume of poultry eggs in 2025 will be 198,000 tons, an increase of 10.7% over the previous year, and the export destinations will increase from 36 in 2020 to 73. China relies on its huge production volume, efficient market circulation network and abundant supply flexibility to steadily support the food basket of more than one billion people.

Let’s look at the actual feelings of the price. In first-tier cities, taking Beijing and Shanghai as examples, in late September, the average egg price in Beijing was 5.11 yuan/jin, the average egg price in Shanghai was 5.09 yuan/jin, and the average price in the main sales area was about 5.10 yuan/jin, which is less than 1 yuan per egg. Grandma Su bought foreign eggs for 6.3 yuan per pound, about 70 cents each. The more expensive free-range eggs bought by Master Xing cost 10 yuan per pound, or about 1 yuan each. Such a price level is far from "unacceptable".

What is even more noteworthy is the self-regulation ability of China's egg market. Liu Tong pointed out that the current egg price is already at a high level, with the number of new laying hens gradually increasing and the supply becoming looser, there is limited room for egg prices to continue to rise sharply. This shows that price signals are effectively guiding the supply side to speed up shipments and restore production capacity.

"The more it falls, the more it will rise. We need to look at it rationally." Zhu Ning summarized this when reviewing the trend of egg prices in the first half of this year. He pointed out that the national average monthly egg wholesale price in August was lower than the same period from 2021 to 2023, and was at a medium level during the same period in the past five years, which is a normal manifestation of tight egg supply and demand. Price fluctuations are normal manifestations of market rules, and both increases and decreases reflect real changes in supply and demand.

Regarding the market outlook, the industry's judgment is basically the same. Zhu Ning believes that as the Mid-Autumn Festival passes and the National Day approaches, the peak season demand is gradually coming to an end, and there is a possibility of a seasonal correction in egg spot prices after the holidays.

"In the process of the price movement of agricultural products, there is an iron law, that is, 'Every high must go low, and every low must go high.' Judging from recent market sales, this high price may not be able to sustain until the National Day holiday." Liu Tong believes that the current egg price is already at a high level, with the number of new laying hens gradually increasing, and the supply becoming looser, there is limited room for egg prices to continue to rise sharply. For livestock farmers, they should grasp the shipment window before the National Day, reasonably arrange the rhythm of the market, and avoid excessive reluctance to sell, which will lead to passive price reductions in the later period.