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Back薔琵颱風路徑曝!吳德榮:台灣恐迎強風豪雨威脅
薔琵颱風路徑曝!吳德榮:台灣恐迎強風豪雨威脅
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自由时报1 hour agoEnvironment2 min readChinaView translation

薔琵颱風路徑曝!吳德榮:台灣恐迎強風豪雨威脅

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中央大學大氣科學系兼任副教授吳德榮指出,第29號強颱薔琵可能在週五至週六中心登陸或通過台灣,強風豪雨威脅不可小覷,氣象模式顯示路徑具不確定性,需密切觀察最新動態。

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Why It Matters

吳德榮為中央大學大氣科學系兼任副教授,於氣象應用推廣基金會專欄發布天氣分析,內容引用中央氣象署及歐洲氣象中心模式數據。

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吳德榮指出,第29號強颱薔琵可能在週五至週六中心登陸、通過台灣。(擷自中央氣象署網站)

中央大學大氣科學系兼任副教授吳德榮指出,今天(20日)東半部偶有雨,日夜溫差大;明天(21日)迎風面轉雨,氣溫逐日下降;第29號強颱薔琵可能在週五、週六(23日、24日)中心登陸、通過台灣,部分模擬則通過台灣近海,強風豪雨不可小覷。

吳德榮今天在氣象應用推廣基金會的「洩天機教室」專欄表示,最新(19日20時)歐洲(ECMWF)模式模擬顯示,今天西半部晴朗穩定,東半部晴時多雲、偶有局部短暫降雨;各地白天氣溫偏高,日夜溫差大,為「秋老虎」型態。

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吳德榮指出,最新模式模擬顯示,明天下午起東北季風增強,迎風面轉有雨;週四(22日)迎風面雨勢逐漸增大,背風面影響輕微,氣溫逐日下降。

週五、週六受薔琵影響,各地風雨劇烈的程度,關乎其路徑是否登陸,有很大差別,需再觀察;下週日、週一(25日、26日)薔琵逐漸遠離,風雨停歇、天氣好轉,山區午後偶有局部短暫降雨。

吳德榮分析,最新(20日2時)氣象署颱風路徑潛勢預測圖顯示,薔琵在關島西方海面,繼續向西北西朝台灣東部海面逼近,再逐漸北轉,路徑具不確定性,包括在台灣東北部海面或在部分陸地登陸。薔琵將持續增強、擴大,預計今、明達到顛峰。

最新歐洲模式模擬顯示,系集平均路徑繼續向西北西,週五、週六中心登陸並通過台灣,系集個別成員分散兩側,模擬路徑具不確定性,顯示有可能登陸或通過台灣近海。

吳德榮補充,雖然薔琵接近台灣的過程中會逐漸減弱,但強度仍強,其強風豪雨的威脅,「絕不可小覷」。此外因模式會持續調整,應密切觀察。

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What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 薔琵颱風將在週五至週六期間接近台灣,可能中心登陸或通過台灣近海

    Likely · Within days

  • 颱風遠離後,山區午後可能仍有局部短暫降雨

    Possible · Within days

Open Questions

  • 薔琵颱風最終是否會登陸台灣或僅通過近海?
  • 颱風對台灣不同地區的具體風雨影響程度如何?

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