After the Strait of Hormuz, Iran now dominates Bab-al-Mandeb, the entry point of the Red Sea.
Author, Paul Adams
Designation, Diplomatic Correspondent
Published 3 minutes ago
Reading Time: 7 minutes
The rapid advance of the Iran-backed Houthis in southern parts of Tihama has surprised most observers. Tihama is a dry coastal area of Yemen.
Until recently, the National Resistance, an opposition coalition of the Houthis, controlled large parts of Yemen's Red Sea coast. But within a few days a large part of it has come under the control of Houthis.
According to some estimates, Iran-backed rebels have captured about 130 kilometers of Yemen's strategically important coastline.
This is the biggest military success of the Houthis in many years. This proves that despite the 12-year-long civil war, devastating air strikes by Saudi Arabia, as well as attacks by the forces of America, Israel and Britain, the Houthis are still a force that cannot be ignored.
The Houthis have surprised and demoralized their opponents and it seems difficult to drive them back from this area so quickly.
Because of this, there is no possibility of the Houthis being ousted soon.
Houthi is not just a puppet of Iran
"Now that they are there, they will consolidate their hold. And removing them will be very costly," Hisham al-Omaisi, a senior analyst at the Brussels-based European Institute of Peace, told the BBC.
Of course, the Houthis are not alone. He has the support of Iran. This support has become even more important for Iran as other parts of its so-called "Axis of Resistance" have suffered setbacks and defeats in recent days.
Skip to Most Read Skip to content
most read
finished
These include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and Assad government in Syria.
"So they turned their support to the Houthis. Certainly the Houthis need this support," al-Omaisi said.
However, most analysts agree that it would not be right to call the Houthis merely puppets of Iran. The events of the last few days have revealed a new and uncomfortable reality.
Seven months after America and Israel launched a massive joint attack on Iran, the Iranian government now has dominance over two of the world's most important sea routes.
These include the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and Bab al-Mandeb, the gateway to the Red Sea. The Suez Canal is reached only through Bab al-Mandeb.
"Iran now directly and through its affiliates controls two of the most strategic sea routes in the Middle East and the world. More than 35 percent of the world's fuel and oil trade passes through these routes," says Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.
He says, "This is a weapon that creates as much pressure as a nuclear bomb."
Less possibility of American intervention
skip ahead podcast
Dinbhar: Same voice, new style
Big news from the country and the world that made headlines.
episode
finished
If the Houthis capture several important islands in the Red Sea, including Perim, their ability to interfere with international shipping will increase significantly. Perim is located in the middle of the narrowest part of the Bab el-Mandeb.
The activities of the Houthis after Israel's war in Gaza have proved that ships passing through the Red Sea are extremely vulnerable to attacks by Houthi missiles, drones and small attack boats.
"Even without these territorial gains, they were able to control people coming and going through the Bab al-Mandeb and people going towards Suez," Yemen expert Iona Craig told BBC Radio 4's Today program on Friday.
"But now they control the area right in front of the Bab al-Mandeb, and that gives them even more pressure."
Shipping companies would hardly trust the Houthi military's statement issued on Friday afternoon, which said that movement through sea routes is safe for "all companies, except for Saudi ships, which are already subject to the blockade."
In their earlier attacks, the Houthis had said they were only targeting ships belonging to Israel.
But in reality they also attacked ships that had no connection with Israel. These included an oil tanker with the Norwegian flag.
However, Craig says the Houthis may avoid indiscriminate attacks because they fear a repeat of Operation Rough Rider.
In the summer of 2025, America carried out massive air and naval strikes for six weeks.
He said, "They have already faced the wrath of America."
But would America still want to get involved in this matter?
President Donald Trump's war with Iran is already unpopular. Oil prices are slowly increasing again.
In such a situation, it does not seem that opening a new front will significantly improve his popularity or his Republican Party's chances in the US midterm elections to be held in November.
Life of the people of Yemen will become more difficult
According to the Axios website, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's appeal to America for intervention has not received any response yet.
Axios writes that the US is "concerned about the escalating conflict in Yemen and is trying to increase its support for Saudi Arabia, but also wants to avoid direct military intervention."
But the cause for concern in Saudi Arabia is not just the potential threat to Bab al-Mandeb.
Satellite images indicate Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline.
This pipeline is an important alternative route for oil exports after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year.
These pictures indicate that Iran's Yemeni allies are trying to increase the economic pressure on Iran created by the war between America and Israel.
Even if Iran did not directly order this attack, it would clearly benefit from it.
Baraa Shaiban, a researcher and analyst at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, says the recent upsurge in fighting began in July.
This is the fiercest fighting so far after the UN-brokered ceasefire in 2022.
According to him, it started when a delegation of Houthis returned after attending the state funeral of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Yemen once again seems to be moving towards full-scale war. Saudi Arabia is concerned about protecting its economic lifeline to the Red Sea and Donald Trump seems reluctant to get involved in this matter.
In such a situation, America's conflict with Iran has now reached a new and potentially dangerous turn.
Download the new BBC World Service app
Choose BBC News Hindi and get news alerts, live TV, podcasts... all in one place
