MİLLİYET.COM.TR / While the balances in the Middle East are being reshaped, the tension between Türkiye and Israel is also on the agenda of the international public. Retired US Colonel Douglas Macgregor put forward remarkable scenarios regarding the developments on the Ankara-Tel Aviv line in his evaluations on broadcaster Mario Nawfal's program.
Macgregor argued that Türkiye's military capacity, strong defense industry, geographical location and effectiveness in the region are long-term strategic factors for Israel. The retired US colonel claimed that at a time when the focus is on Iran, Türkiye is increasingly coming to the fore in the regional balance of power with its military and economic capacity.
'TURKEY HAS A VERY LARGE ARMY'
One of Macgregor's most striking statements in the program was regarding the current balances in the Middle East.
Retired US colonel said, "The status quo in the Middle East is collapsing. Türkiye has military power and a very large army that can be used in war. Israel knows this."
Arguing that the future of the region will not be shaped only through diplomatic negotiations or international organizations, Macgregor said, "I do not know the future, but I know that the future will not be determined by meetings behind the scenes of the UN."
'LONG TERM STRATEGIC CAPACITY'
The rise in Türkiye's regional military capacity was also at the center of Macgregor's analysis in the programme.
The retired US colonel said, "The West has focused on Iran for a long time, but Türkiye has the capacity to affect the balances in the Middle East with its economy, geographical location, industrial infrastructure and large land forces."
Macgregor said, "Türkiye's capacity is not limited to military personnel and existing platforms. The expansion of domestic design and production capabilities in the defense industry stands out as one of the fundamental elements that strengthen Ankara's long-term strategic capacity."
The US colonel stated that Türkiye has shown that it is not just a country that buys ready-made systems from abroad, but has also grown its own defense ecosystem.
'IT IS A RED LINE'
Macgregor also evaluated Israel's attacks in Syria in this context. Drawing attention to the possible Israeli attack on Türkiye's influence in Syria, Macgregor argued that the incident could have a different meaning for Ankara and described it as a "red line".
'THUCYDIDES TRAP'
In Macgregor's assessment, he also touched upon the approach known as the "Thucydides Trap" in international relations literature.
Macgregor said, "According to the concept popularized by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison, when a rising power reaches the potential to displace the dominant power of the existing order, the fear and miscalculations created by the change of power can increase the risk of conflict. When the Turkey-Israel relationship is viewed from this perspective, the tension between the expansion of Ankara's regional influence and Israel's current military and strategic position comes to the fore."
'Türkiye'S INFLUENCE IN THE REGION IS INCREASING'
Macgregor argued that Türkiye has developed not only its diplomatic sphere of influence but also its military and technological capacity.
In his speech, he said, "Türkiye's defense industry ecosystem spans a wide area including land, air, sea, electronic warfare, radar, air defense, missile systems and unmanned platforms."
Emphasizing that Türkiye's capacity in the maritime field also attracted attention, Macgregor said, "The Blue Homeland-2026 Exercise was carried out with the coordination of surface elements, submarines, air elements and command centers; the operational effectiveness created by the high level of preparation and national capabilities was demonstrated in the exercise."
'IT MAY NOT BE LIMITED TO TWO COUNTRIES'
Finally, one of Macgregor's most striking warnings was that a possible Türkiye-Israel conflict may not remain within the borders of the two countries.
The retired US colonel argued that Ankara could carry out its possible moves in coordination with other powers and that the regional crisis could turn into a wider conflict, especially if actors such as Russia intervene.
'CRITICAL NOVEL POINT'
