AfD expands lead in ZDF political barometer

According to a survey, the AfD has increased its lead over the CDU/CSU at the federal level. If there were a federal election next Sunday, the AfD would get 28 percent, one percentage point more than last, ZDF said in its “Political Barometer” from the elections research group.

CDU/CSU lose one point to 21 percent. The Greens remained unchanged at 14 percent, the SPD improved by one point to 13 percent, the Left remained at 12 percent. The FDP loses one point to three percent.

A large majority also expects Merz’s chancellorship to end early. 65 percent did not believe that Merz would remain Chancellor until the next regular federal election in spring 2029. 79 percent said Merz was doing a rather poor job as Chancellor.

Merz remains at the bottom of the politician rankings

In the current “Political Barometer”, Boris Pistorius remains by far the most popular federal politician. The defense minister improved slightly to an average score of 1.4 on the plus five to minus five scale. He is followed by Cem Özdemir with 0.9 and Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul with 0.4. Chancellor Friedrich Merz remains in the lower part of the ranking with minus 1.9. AfD leader Alice Weidel is still at the bottom with minus 2.4. Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder was able to increase, improving from minus 0.6 to minus 0.3.

The top 10 at a glance:

Boris Pistorius: 1.4 (+0.1)

Cem Özdemir: 0.9 (unchanged)

Johann Wadephul: 0.4 (+0.3)

Markus Söder: -0.3 (+0.3)

Alexander Dobrindt: -0.4 (unchanged)

Lars Klingbeil: -0.5 (+0.1)

Bärbel Bas: -0.9 (-0.1)

Heidi Reichinnek: -1.1 (-0.3)

Friedrich Merz: -1.9 (unchanged)

Alice Weidel: -2.4 (+0.1)

Election surveys are generally subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of possible election outcomes.

According to ZDF, the Elections Research Group surveyed 1,346 randomly selected eligible voters by telephone and online from September 22nd to 24th. The error range is around +/- three percentage points for a share value of 40 percent and around +/- two percentage points for a share value of ten percent. The survey is considered representative.