Donald Trump and Xi Jinping: harmony on the surface, conflict postponed

Donald Trump switched to harmony early on. Nothing should disturb the summit with Xi Jinping in Washington. The Chinese, who had a pair of panda with him, also played along. The American president repeatedly threatens, humiliates and punishes allies – both transatlantic and Indo-Pacific. But Trump treats China and its president, whom he calls a “great leader” and “friend,” with demonstrative respect. What else remains of the meeting in the White House? Big deals? None. Instead: atmospheric fine-tuning of relations with the powerful rival.

There are several reasons why Trump avoids confrontation: On the one hand, the president also views international politics through the narcissistic prism and allows himself to be flattered and ensnared. His personal relationship with the leaders of the major powers is intended to guide world politics, something that Xi and Putin must watch with a smile. Because they pursue their strategic interests in a sober, calculating manner. They play “mind games” with Trump in order to manipulate the leader of the former Western leading power.

On the other hand, at the beginning of his second term in office, Xi let Trump know where his ambitions lie. The American protectionist – pointed out by the China hawks in the cabinet – had tested Xi. He launched a trade war against the People's Republic. The Chinese president was prepared and cut off exports of rare earths to America. Trump gave in and largely withdrew the tariffs. Xi showed him the limits of his power. The ceasefire was extended in Washington.

Incidentally, Trump is doing the same as his predecessors Biden and Obama. Like the Republican's political advisors, the two Democrats saw China as the greatest global challenge for the United States in the 21st century, for which Washington must prepare itself. Despite all the polarization in Washington, the finding is one of the few similarities between the two political camps. Obama already wanted the “pivot to Asia” and called the United States a Pacific power. Biden wanted to build on that; he too was surrounded by China hawks.

And those in the Trump administration who are trying to pursue a long-term foreign policy strategy despite the president's erratic actions are primarily concerned with Beijing. Washington's interim attempts to end the Ukraine war at Kiev's expense also served the goal of breaking Russia out of its alliance with China.

But just like Obama and Biden, the Trump administration is failing to rise to the challenge. Economically, China has long been a superpower that is flexing its muscles in an already closely networked global economy. And geopolitically, Trump has lost his way: the Iran war is proving to be something different than the military operation in Venezuela. Beijing's ally Tehran is also showing Washington its limits. The Middle East costs Trump many resources that are missing elsewhere.

The Taiwan issue, for example, should the China hawks have had their way, actually be used as an opportunity to strengthen America's regional alliances in the Indo-Pacific in order to deter Beijing, which views the island as a renegade part of the country. Trump, on the other hand, is currently punishing his ally South Korea because it is refusing to help him in the Strait of Hormuz - in a war that he started without consulting his allies.

In fact, the Trump administration is avoiding the Taiwan issue and delaying a decision on a $14 billion arms deal with Taipei. Apparently the president is taking Xi's warning seriously that mishandling the island would be extremely dangerous. Trump has even described the arms package, which is primarily intended to strengthen air defense, as a bargaining chip with Beijing, which must have given rise to the worst fears in Taipei: He was effectively giving Xi a say.

Security experts doubt that the Republican president would come to the island's aid if the worst came to the worst. Trump defines American interests differently. Allies - actually a unique selling point of the superpower America in a world where there are otherwise only dependencies - play no role for him.

Of course, Trump does not underestimate Xi's ambitions. He also makes this clear in the debate about state monitoring of artificial intelligence. He rejects strict AI regulations – and makes no secret of his motivation: “Whoever wins with AI wins everything.” The president does not want to give up the lead that American tech companies have in the field - knowing full well that China has long since begun to catch up. There is also mistrust behind this: the People's Republic would not allow ethical concerns to slow it down. AI is the new battleground in the arms race. The conflict with China has just been postponed.