Before the state elections on September 6th, the political mood in Saxony-Anhalt has changed significantly. According to the pre-election survey, the AfD is clearly ahead of the CDU, which only has 22 percent, with 42 percent.
The Left reaches eleven percent and would therefore be the third strongest force, the SPD has eight percent. The Greens could barely make it into parliament with currently six percent, BSW and FDP would currently miss out on entering the state parliament with four or fewer percentage points.
Only limited conclusions can be drawn about the election outcome from surveys. The Sunday question determines an interim status in the opinion-forming process that is not fully completed until the day of the election. A good one in ten eligible voters in Saxony-Anhalt (eleven percent) say that their party preference could change by election day.
According to the surveys, the three most important topics are integration, education and the economy.
Low trust in government and parties
According to the Saxony-Anhalt trend, there is great dissatisfaction with the state government. In the July survey, only three out of ten of those eligible to vote rated the work of the black-red-yellow coalition positively. Around two thirds of those surveyed were dissatisfied. Supporters of the AfD were particularly critical.
Trust in the parties' ability to solve problems has also shifted. 16 percent of those surveyed trusted the CDU to solve the most important tasks in the country. The AfD was well ahead of the CDU on this question with 36 percent. One in five people surveyed did not trust any party to solve Saxony-Anhalt's problems.
The pre-election survey from the end of August also shows that the CDU's top candidate and Prime Minister Sven Schulze received a positive report from 30 percent of those eligible to vote, and 46 percent were dissatisfied with him. 37 percent are currently satisfied with the work of AfD top candidate Ulrich Siegmund.
Opinion is divided on the question of who should be the next Prime Minister. If the Prime Minister could be elected directly, 41 percent would choose the incumbent Sven Schulze (+5 compared to May), 39 percent (+7 compared to May) would choose the AfD challenger Ulrich Siegmund.
There are clear differences between the age groups. A majority preference for the CDU Prime Minister exists only among those over 65 years old. Ulrich Siegmund is ahead in the other age groups.
Political scientist sees negative general mood
The Chemnitz political scientist Benjamin Höhne attributes the high approval ratings for the AfD primarily to the negative mood in Saxony-Anhalt. He said that to mdr AKTUELL in May. The AfD has built up a loyal core electorate and is often elected out of fundamental conviction. At the same time, the party is increasingly perceived as part of normal political operations.
According to Höhne's assessment, the personnel situation also plays a role: Prime Minister Sven Schulze (CDU) has not yet been able to have the effect that his predecessor Reiner Haseloff had as long-time head of government.
Economy under pressure
The mood in the economy is also tense. In an economic survey by the IHK Magdeburg at the end of July, only one in five companies in the region rated their situation as good, while one in four rated it as bad.
Chief Executive André Rummel said in July that no economic growth could be generated. "In this respect, the situation is still bad. The mood is not much better," said Rummel.
It's not just about individual cost factors. The IHK cites high energy and raw material prices, labor costs and bureaucracy as burdens. High taxes and difficult financing conditions are also cited as problems. Economic uncertainty is also a question of future prospects in the regions.
What people expect from politics
How concrete this mood becomes in everyday life was also shown in the mdr election arena. The questions from the audience revolved around, among other things, the financing of municipalities, inclusion and education, the shortage of skilled workers, gas supply and migration.
When it came to the issue of a shortage of skilled workers, the audience saw migration as a possible solution. The question of how to deal with emigration, on the other hand, was about what conditions could persuade people to stay. Culture, daycare centers and schools were mentioned as important factors.
