AfD wins state elections in Saxony-Anhalt with historic results

In the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD with top candidate Ulrich Siegmund is far ahead. According to projections by ARD and ZDF, Prime Minister Sven Schulze's CDU comes in second place with immense losses. The left is losing votes. The Greens are gaining significantly, the SPD is roughly maintaining its share of the vote. This suggests that the formation of a government will be complicated. The BSW's entry into the state parliament is in jeopardy.

According to the projections, the AfD, which the state Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified as firmly right-wing extremist, can more than double its share of the vote to 44.1 to 44.5 percent (2021: 20.8 percent). The CDU roughly halved its share of the vote and is heading for its worst result in a state election in Saxony-Anhalt with 18.5 percent (37.1 percent). The Left received 9.2 to 9.4 percent (11 percent). The Greens are at 8.7 to 8.9 percent (5.9 percent). The SPD achieved 8.2 to 8.8 percent (8.4 percent). The FDP flies out of parliament with 2.1 to 2.4 percent (6.4 percent). The Sahra Wagenknecht alliance stands at 4.8 to 5 percent.

According to the projections, the AfD will receive 39 to 41 seats in the state parliament (2021: 23), the CDU 16 to 17 (40). The Left has 8 to 9 mandates (12), the SPD has 7 to 8 (9) and the Greens has 8 (6). According to ARD projections, the BSW will receive 5 mandates.

Almost 1.7 million eligible voters were allowed to vote. During the election campaign, the AfD repeatedly portrayed postal voting as easily manipulated and questioned its legitimacy. State returning officer Christa Dieckmann rejected such speculation.

Black-red-yellow government coalition at the end

A new edition of the coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP that previously governed Saxony-Anhalt is therefore ruled out. It was the only such alliance at the state level. However, it is likely that the government will continue in office for a while, as talks to form a new coalition are likely to be difficult.

The AfD is aiming for a sole government - but according to projections, the votes are just not enough for that. Nevertheless, it would be the party's best result in a state election. It has already been the strongest force in a state election: in Thuringia in 2024.

None of the other parties in Saxony-Anhalt want to form a coalition with the AfD. Before the election, top candidate Siegmund had ruled out a minority government under his leadership.

A minority government could also be led by the CDU. However, top candidate Schulze would have to rely on votes from the left, among other things - similar to Saxony and Thuringia. There are also members of his party who are in favor of changing majorities - including the AfD. But the left is unlikely to accept that.

According to the federal party conference resolution, the CDU rejects a coalition or comparable forms of cooperation with both the Left and the AfD. The line is also known as the “fire wall”.

Cheers from the AfD – CDU disappointed

There was rejoicing at the AfD on election night. “We have achieved exactly what we wanted to achieve,” said top candidate Siegmund after the forecasts were announced in Magdeburg. “We have made history in this country.” AfD co-federal leader Alice Weidel spoke of a “very clear government mandate”.

CDU top candidate Schulze admitted his party's failure. “It’s a defeat for us,” he said. “First of all, I would like to congratulate the election winner,” said the Prime Minister to the AfD. CDU General Secretary Franziska Hoppermann described her party's massive election losses as a "very difficult result". “We are obviously not succeeding enough at the moment in reaching people emotionally so that they follow us on our political reform course.”

Incumbent Schulze and challenger Siegmund

Schulze has only been head of government since January of this year. His predecessor Reiner Haseloff (CDU) resigned after around 15 years to pave the way for his successor. The 47-year-old industrial engineer and father of three Schulze was not able to benefit from the incumbent bonus to the same extent as a long-time head of government.

In the election campaign he didn't have an easy time against his toughest competitor, AfD top candidate Siegmund. The 35-year-old was celebrated like a pop star at many of his appearances. He sometimes portrayed extreme positions from the AfD election program as harmless.

Attention to the election at home and abroad

Only a good three percent of eligible voters in Germany live in Saxony-Anhalt. Nevertheless, national and international interest in a state election has rarely been as great as this time. The reason is the question of whether, for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic, a party classified as right-wing extremist will come to power at the state level.

In two weeks - on September 20th - there will be two more state elections in East Germany: in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and in the state of Berlin. The three votes could shake up the black-red coalition in the federal government. Do Chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz as well as the SPD leaders Bärbel Bas and Lars Klingbeil still have enough support within their own ranks? Is the coalition cement enough to pass difficult reforms on pensions, income tax and sick leave in the autumn as planned?

Migration, education, security – important topics in the election campaign

In the election campaign, the question of whether the AfD could make it into the state government was the main issue over all issues. There was a heated debate about migration. The AfD spoke of “asylum chaos” that it wanted to stop. In education policy, the AfD's plan to weaken compulsory school attendance and allow parents to teach their children at home was particularly controversial. Stimulating the economy, internal security with the AfD's call for vigilante groups and electricity prices also played a larger role.

What's next?

The first session of the new state parliament must take place no later than the 30th day after the election, which is October 6th. Then the terms of office of the ministers and the head of government also end. However, according to the constitution, they are all obliged to continue running the business until their successors take over. There is no deadline by which a new head of government must be elected - but if the first round of voting is scheduled and fails, deadlines apply for possible further rounds of voting.

The state parliament normally has 83 seats, but due to compensatory and overhang mandates, 97 members sat in parliament in the past legislative period.