AfD member of the Bundestag Torben Braga has published thoughts on how AfD top candidate Ulrich Siegmund could become Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt despite lacking his own majority.
In a detailed article on Platform
Braga refers to Article 65 of the state constitution, which regulates the procedure for electing the Prime Minister. The AfD has 39 seats in the new Saxony-Anhalt state parliament. Siegmund needs 42 votes for an absolute majority.
Article 65 of the state constitution reads: "The person who receives the votes of the majority of the members of the state parliament in the first round of voting is elected prime minister. If no one receives this majority in this round of voting, a new round of voting will be held within seven days. If the election in this round of voting is not carried out with a majority of the members, the state parliament will decide within a further fourteen days on the early termination of the electoral period. If the early termination of the electoral period is not decided by the majority of the members of the state parliament, Another round of voting will take place immediately. The person who receives the majority of the votes cast is elected.”
AfD politician Braga outlines five steps. First: Siegmund achieved an absolute majority in the first round of voting. He could also receive votes from other factions in a secret vote. (Then move on to step five.)
If he fails, the second thing follows: In a second round of voting, which must take place within seven days of the first, Siegmund needs 42 votes again. If no one from other factions leaves, Siegmund will fail again here. (If it works, follow step five again.)
Third: According to Braga's account, two unsuccessful rounds of voting with the required absolute majority of 42 votes would present the remaining parliamentary groups with a choice: either the state parliament would decide to dissolve it within fourteen days and clear the way for new elections. Or the resolution does not come about.
Then - fourthly - a third round of voting follows, in which a simple majority is sufficient. In this case, abstentions count as votes not cast.
A possible scenario is looming here: All 39 AfD MPs vote for their top man Ulrich Siegmund as the new head of government, while the 5 BSW MPs abstain. All other parties vote against Siegmund, i.e. the CDU, SPD, Greens and Left, which also have a total of 39 votes. This would mean that the votes cast would be equal and no one would be elected.
Braga sees three options for the other parties in this third round of voting: They could elect a joint prime minister, allow new elections or vote against election winner Siegmund, round after round. The AfD just has to stick to its candidate. “And she always wins,” he comments. According to his account, even an AfD Prime Minister without a solid majority could shape the state administration (constitutional protection), personnel decisions, police work and the lines in migration policy.
For Braga, everything comes down to step five: Prime Minister Siegmund could link important legislative proposals or the budget to the vote of confidence. If this fails in the state parliament, there is a risk of new elections unless the other factions agree on a common opponent as a “rainbow coalition,” as Braga calls it.
From Braga's perspective, the AfD can only win. Either there will be a government led by Siegmund, new elections or a constellation in which the AfD can act as the strongest opposition force. Braga concludes with the words: “In short: there are worse things…”
It remains to be seen what will happen after a failed third round of voting. The constitution does not explicitly regulate what happens next. However, constitutional lawyers confirm that after a stalemate in the third round of voting, further rounds of voting would be possible.
The former state constitutional judge Michael Kilian, professor of public law at the Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, explained when asked by the dpa news agency: “If there is a stalemate, elections will continue until a simple majority is found, if necessary through electoral coalitions.” His arguments: On the one hand, the constitution aims to avoid a period without a government or with a purely caretaker government. On the other hand, once the people have elected a state parliament, this legitimacy should, if possible, also lead to a government. His professor colleague Winfried Kluth sees it the same way: "This is not expressly regulated, but there can be further rounds of voting. As far as I can see, this is not controversial."
