AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt raises questions about the formation of a government and the federal government - at the same time, a data leak in Berlin is causing a stir

However, given the complicated majority situation, it remains unclear whether the AfD's top candidate Ulrich Siegmund can actually become prime minister. Many things are conceivable: For example, a collaboration - of whatever kind - with Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW (more on this here). Or Siegmund receives support from some CDU defectors. Siegmund himself even brings new elections into play. It is clear that Saxony-Anhalt is facing politically uncertain times (you can find all developments here in the news blog).

In the event that Siegmund is ultimately elected Prime Minister, there are already indications of what will happen next. The AfD will discover – a big surprise – that many of its election promises cannot be implemented. Experts have been saying for months: they are either too expensive or constitutionally inadmissible or questionable.

As in the election campaign, Siegmund and Co. will then shift the blame onto others. The following are available as scapegoats: the “old parties,” which supposedly governed so badly before; the federal government, which maliciously restricts the scope of state politicians, or other dark forces (“the media”, “migrants”). A foretaste of this narrative was provided on election evening by AfD leader Tino Chrupalla, who announced that the new prime minister would first have to make a cash grab. It sounds as if the state budget is a state secret. Anyone can read it on the internet. But that's how populism works.

Listen to a special episode of our podcast “MAD KINGS” here: AfD victory fuels fall of Chancellor

The Union currently only has the choice between two bad options: If it hastily replaces Merz as chancellor, there is no guarantee that the party will soon be doing better. The domestic and foreign policy pressure is currently too great, and the problems that the Union has to solve with the SPD in Berlin are too complicated. On the other hand: If the Union sticks to Merz and further elections are lost, it may be too late to correct course before the next federal election.

The fall is likely to be decisive for Merz: The coalition partners from the SPD want to implement corrections to the reform package that has been decided in response to the election in Saxony-Anhalt. »That is a reason to also think about politics here in Berlin, about the federal government's reform course. And be sure, we will do that too,” said SPD leader Lars Klingbeil.

But that is exactly what would be unreasonable for many Union people. If the Chancellor does not keep his coalition under control, replacement could become unavoidable for his party. The successor would then be called either Hendrik Wüst or Markus Söder. This week the members of the Bundestag are returning from their summer break in Berlin, and the Chancellor wants to speak in the Bundestag on Wednesday. It will quickly become apparent how much cohesion there really is in the Union and in this coalition - and where Merz is headed.

More background here: In the CDU they are now talking about a “Chancellor problem”

Please also read the current SPIEGEL editorial

Merz is obviously the wrong man in this office in these times: The AfD has won hands down in Saxony-Anhalt, it is a leap into a new dimension. What this means for Germany.

What is behind the data leak in Berlin?

Major news events such as the outcome of the election in Saxony-Anhalt mean that many other important events receive less attention than they deserve. Namely this one: Since this weekend, some highly explosive information from the data leak at the Berlin state administration has been circulating online (more here). A hacker group that tried to blackmail the state of Berlin fed the data into the dark web. A deadline for a ransom demand had previously expired. The Senate did not want to be blackmailed and refused to pay.

The Berlin leak is serious: It is the largest publicly known leak of data with subsequent publication in Germany. Not only the state of Berlin is affected with its security interests, but also many of its employees and citizens, write my colleagues Florian Kistler, Marcel Rosenbach and Gerret von Nordheim, who are following the case.

A lot of sensitive content from the Berlin administration can be identified in the directories containing a total of 1.4 million data sets: emergency plans for water supply in times of crisis, payrolls, account information, scans of identification documents, confidential personnel matters such as allegations of misconduct and disciplinary matters. But documents on the cybersecurity strategy and the new building at the Federal Chancellery are also open. The secret services of other countries, such as Russia, will be happy: the hackers have handed them a gift on a silver platter.

More background here: Sensitive Chancellery plans, payrolls, account information are now on the darknet