Magdeburg. The AfD with top candidate Ulrich Siegmund is aiming for government after its strong performance in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt. For the first time since the end of the Second World War, a party classified as firmly right-wing extremist could come to power in a federal state - if it finds supporters. According to projections by ARD and ZDF, it is not enough for a sole government. Prime Minister Sven Schulze's CDU suffered immense losses.
The left is losing votes. The Greens are gaining significantly, the SPD is roughly maintaining its share of the vote. This suggests that the formation of a government will be complicated. The BSW's entry into the state parliament is in jeopardy.
According to projections, the AfD can more than double its share of the vote to 44.2 to 44.4 percent (2021: 20.8 percent). It would be the best result that a party has achieved in state elections in the past ten years.
The CDU roughly halved its share of the vote and is heading for its worst result in a state election in Saxony-Anhalt with 18 to 18.3 (37.1 percent). The Left receives 9 to 9.2 percent (11 percent). The Greens are at 8.4 to 8.6 percent (5.9 percent), which would be the best result in a state election in Saxony-Anhalt. The SPD achieved 8.6 to 9 percent (8.4 percent). The FDP flies out of parliament with 2.3 to 2.4 percent (6.4 percent). The Sahra Wagenknecht alliance stands at 4.8 to 5.1 percent.
According to the projections, the AfD will receive 39 to 41 seats in the state parliament (2021: 23), the CDU 16 to 17 (40). The Left has 8 to 9 mandates (12), the SPD has 8 (9) and the Greens has 8 (6). According to ARD projections, the BSW will receive 4 seats.
A new edition of the coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP that previously governed Saxony-Anhalt is therefore ruled out. It was the only such alliance at the state level. The AfD had aimed for a sole government - but according to projections, the votes are just not enough for that. Nevertheless, it would be the party's best result in a state election. It has already been the strongest force in a state election: in Thuringia in 2024. None of the other parties in Saxony-Anhalt want to form a coalition with the AfD.
In order to continue to govern, top candidate Schulze from the CDU would have to rely, among other things, on votes from the left - similar to Saxony and Thuringia. There are also members of his party who are in favor of changing majorities - including the AfD. But the left is unlikely to accept that.
According to the federal party conference resolution, the CDU rejects a coalition or comparable forms of cooperation with both the Left and the AfD. The line is also known as the “fire wall”.
AfD top candidate Siegmund said of his party's performance: "Of course it is a government mandate." “Of course” he will also govern with just one more vote. His government team is already in place, and has been for months.
At the same time, the 35-year-old said that he currently sees no partners for a coalition. But he doesn't know what will happen in the next few days. “I don’t know if there are individual MPs who say: “It’s over now, I’m not going to play this anymore.” A lot could still happen.
CDU top candidate Schulze – who has only been in office as prime minister since January – admitted his party's failure. “It’s a defeat for us,” said the 47-year-old. “I don’t plan to work with the AfD,” he said on MDR. Schulze had previously avoided a clear answer on ARD about the continued existence of the “firewall”. "We have resolutions at the federal level, but we have a projection that hits us hard. That's why we have to deal with it first."
The CDU state parliament member Eva Feußner called for Schulze's resignation as state party leader. "If this country is important to him, Sven Schulze must draw conclusions and resign as party chairman. There is no other way," she told "Stern".
The head of the Union parliamentary group in the Bundestag, Thorsten Frei (CDU), viewed the election as a drastic event. “This is a turning point for our country,” he said. “We have never had this situation before where a party that is classified as right-wing extremist by the State Office for the Protection of the Constitution has achieved a majority.”
SPD leader Lars Klingbeil described his party’s figures as a “stable result”. He emphasized that the SPD “does not sit down at the same table” with the AfD. The SPD has always fought for democratic majorities in the country. “We will not extend our hand to the AfD here.”
The Federal Green Party Chairman Felix Banaszak said of his party's gains that many had already written off the Greens, but now they will most likely achieve the best result in the history of Saxony-Anhalt in a state election. “That fills me with joy and pride.”
Left federal leader Ines Schwerdtner said her goal was to keep the AfD away from government power. “It is up to the CDU to say: who will take responsibility now,” said Schwerdtner, referring to a possible future government with the support of the Left. The AfD should not be allowed to take control of the levers.
The AfD had named ten points that it wanted to address immediately if it came into government. This includes the termination of state broadcasting contracts, more deportations, a comprehensive work requirement for asylum seekers, special classes for children of asylum seekers and less money for party-affiliated foundations and democracy promotion programs.
Black, red and gold should fly in schools and rainbow flags should be banned. The AfD is also planning voluntary vigilante groups for more security on site as well as “freedom to choose between school and home education”. In principle, however, federal law limits the scope in some areas, such as migration policy.
In two weeks - on September 20th - there will be two more state elections in East Germany: in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and in the state of Berlin. The three votes could shake up the black-red coalition in the federal government. Do Chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz as well as the SPD leaders Bärbel Bas and Lars Klingbeil still have enough support within their own ranks? Is the coalition cement enough to pass difficult reforms on pensions, income tax and sick leave in the autumn as planned?
The first session of the new state parliament must take place no later than the 30th day after the election, which is October 6th. Then the terms of office of the ministers and the head of government also end. However, according to the constitution, they are all obliged to continue running the business until their successors take over. There is no deadline by which a new head of government must be elected - but if the first round of voting is scheduled and fails, deadlines apply for possible further rounds of voting.
