With or without a historic victory over the weekend, the AfD, its members and opponents are worrying the German police. On Sunday (6), the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, in the east of the country, could bring the far-right party to power, an unprecedented event in the post-war period. Authorities await protests and do not rule out violent acts in any outcome.
The situation is compounded by a week full of suspicions of sabotage across the country, amid a diplomatic dispute between Germany and Russia. This Thursday (3), one of them caused the temporary emptying of the main terminal at Berlin airport.
The party has been leading voting intention polls for months, with more than 40% of preferences, which projects it to obtain a majority or almost a majority of seats in Parliament, in the capital Magdeburg. For the authorities, the problem lies precisely in this almost successful scenario, which is likely even now, according to surveys.
As the other parties refuse to work with the AfD in the German Legislative Houses — in a practice known as Brandmauer (firewall) — the party would only be able to nominate a minister-president, the local designation for governor, if it reaches more than half of the seats.
If the majority is not reached, the party, apparently, will argue that there was fraud, a strategy imported from populists in other countries, such as that of American President Donald Trump. Tino Chrupalla, co-leader of the AfD, claimed in recent days that votes sent by post from elderly people staying in nursing homes had been manipulated.
The electoral commission of Saxony-Anhalt saw no basis in the complaint, but the party's movement, according to the police, envisages the worst scenario imagined: protests by supporters and the potential to mobilize members of violent neo-Nazi groups.
Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's main name in the election and considered for the governor's seat, declared last weekend that he would respect the results of the polls. He asked the activists, however, to appear at the counting sites to monitor the counts. "Trust is good, but control is better," declared the candidate.
According to state laws, attending voting and counting sessions is a voter's right, as long as they do not cause confusion. The summons also worries the police.
In recent weeks, non-partisan campaigns have sought to increase knowledge about controversial points in the AfD government program, such as expelling immigrants from health services and ideological interventions in the culture and education sectors.
Another aspect of the campaigns was the attempt to popularize the request for strategic voting among the Social Democrats of the SPD and the Greens so that the two parties can overcome the 5% barrier clause, the minimum percentage of votes to obtain representation. With more parties in Parliament, the more complicated it becomes for the AfD to achieve a majority.
Whether a result of the campaign or not, voting intentions for both parties have grown in recent weeks, increasing the volume of criticism coming from members of the AfD.
The opposite scenario also worries security agents. The danger, in this case, would come from the extreme left, which also has a violent history in the country. To top it off, a victory for the AfD would mobilize a myriad of social movements, many of them accustomed to holding counter-protests at far-right demonstrations and during party meetings.
At least 22 events were registered with the police and will require the monitoring of security agents — spontaneous protests, in general, are banned in the country. Ten months in the making, preparations for the election bring together all available forces in the state, as well as reinforcements from other units of the federation.
As if the concerns directly related to the event were not enough, Germany is experiencing a week of suspected sabotage and an open diplomatic conflict with Russia.
After two interferences in energy installations on Tuesday (1st), the Munich police are investigating an attempted arson attack on a Rohde & Schwarz construction site. The company manufactures radars and equipment to detect drones. Two suspects were arrested, a man and a woman of Bulgarian nationality.
Also this Thursday, in Berlin, a woman presented herself to the Federal Police at Willy Brandt Airport claiming to be carrying dangerous substances in her suitcase. She was arrested, and the main terminal was closed for three hours until the contents of her luggage were safely checked.
At the beginning of the week, Friedrich Merz's government announced retaliatory measures against Russia, blamed for the presence of drones loaded with explosives at Leipzig airport, found by chance in early August. The Kremlin denies the accusation.
German observers and politicians classify the episodes as hybrid attacks, probably sponsored by Russian intelligence services, accustomed to trying to manipulate the results of elections in Europe.
