ISW analysts described the possible course of a limited Russian incursion into Estonia, a NATO country. Their considerations focus on Narva - a border town on the Narva River, inhabited largely by the Russian-speaking population.
According to the study, the Kremlin could precede its actions with a disinformation campaign. Its elements would include accusations against Estonia of persecuting the Russian minority and a narrative about the alleged threat to Russia from Tallinn and NATO.
In a hypothetical scenario, small armed groups occupy selected facilities in Narva, including: museum, town hall and fragments of the waterfront - and then announce the creation of the so-called Narva People's Republic. Moscow would then present the crisis as an internal matter for Estonia, rather than an actual attack on the territory of the North Atlantic Alliance.
ISW indicates that Russia would not have to carry out a full-scale invasion or gather significant armored forces near the border. Combat drones deployed on the Russian side of the border, as well as small groups of special forces soldiers and infantry, would play a key role in the operation.
UAVs could make it difficult for Estonian and allied troops to reach Narva by attacking roads, military bases and moving units. The authors of the report point out that the goal would not be to permanently occupy Estonia, but to cause a political crisis in NATO.
According to analysts, such a move would primarily undermine the credibility of Article 5, which assumes that an armed attack on one NATO member is treated as an attack on all allies.
ISW estimates that in the event of a limited incident, some NATO countries might hesitate to formally trigger Article 5, fearing a violent escalation with Russia. Moscow could use these concerns in its outreach efforts to try to deepen divisions between the U.S. and European NATO members.
The report also points to the risk of delays in political and military decisions. Forces present in Estonia would have to react quickly before Russian drone systems cut off roads leading to the fighting area.
The authors also emphasize that Russia would have limited possibilities for further escalation. Conducting a large operation against NATO countries would be difficult for Moscow, especially if it is simultaneously involved in the war against Ukraine.
According to ISW, the Kremlin is implementing two overarching strategies in Europe. The first is to limit or completely block the military and diplomatic support that European countries provide to Ukraine. The second is the weakening of NATO as a coherent alliance capable of opposing Russia.
Analysts remind that Russia's strategy towards Ukraine is based on the assumption that Moscow will be able to wait out Western support for Kiev. From this point of view, actions aimed at European infrastructure, defense industry and public sentiment are intended to directly support the Russian invasion.
Poland is of particular importance in the context of aid for Kiev, as key supply routes for Western transport to Ukraine run through it. ISW estimates that actions against railway infrastructure and attacks near the Polish-Ukrainian border are part of Russia's attempt to disrupt these connections.
The analysis recalled, among others: cases of sabotage on railway routes leading to the border crossings with Ukraine. The institute also points to Russian drone strikes against Ukrainian targets near the border with Poland.
"The Kremlin is expanding its campaign to interrupt Western aid outside Ukraine," according to the ISW assessment.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the most important way to prevent the "Estonian scenario" is deterrence - both political and military. ISW calls for clear declarations of readiness to defend NATO countries, also in the event of limited Russian actions.
Analysts recommend that countries on the eastern flank develop defense systems against drones, electronic warfare and their own unmanned units. They emphasize that such capabilities should be deployed at the border before a possible crisis.
Russia is also trying to influence public debate in Europe. According to the authors of the analysis, the Kremlin is using incidents and threats to reinforce the message that aid for Ukraine leads to the risk of escalation, and limiting it would be a way to reduce tension.
ISW notes that such a narrative may serve to weaken public support for Kiev and strengthen groups skeptical of NATO or sanctions imposed on Russia.
Analysts warn that European countries should not treat subsequent incidents as isolated events of a purely criminal nature. In their opinion, a coordinated approach to the protection of critical infrastructure, defense plants, logistics routes and digital systems is necessary.
