(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) Roderich Kiesewetter is a senior member of the German Bundestag, affiliated with the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and a foreign affairs expert of the party. He once served in the military and is a retired colonel of the German Bundeswehr. He is regarded as a hawkish representative of national defense and diplomacy, advocating a tougher policy toward China and Russia.
Kisewert made her third public visit to Taiwan in mid-September, during which she met with Taiwan Vice President Hsiao Meiqin, former President Tsai Ing-wen, other senior national security officials and Taiwanese legislators. In an exclusive interview with DW in Taipei on the 17th, he said that if Western countries are overwhelmed by the war in Ukraine, the situation in the Taiwan Strait will face challenges when Europe, the United States and Taiwan hold important elections from 2027 to 2029. The interview was conducted in English. The following content has been excerpted, edited and published:
Cognitive warfare plus hybrid warfare: Taiwan Strait will face many challenges in the next three years
DW: You have made at least two public visits to Taiwan in the past three years. What message do you hope to convey with this visit, especially at this time of growing concern about China's pressure on Taiwan?
Kiesewert: I see this as a symbol of friendship, and I also believe that Taiwan is an important state.
China is supporting Russia’s horrific war in Ukraine, in which it also has support from North Korea and Iran. These CRINK countries (editor's note: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea) are fighting against the rules-based international order. We must choose a side and make a clear commitment to support those countries that support the rules-based international order.
DW: You have previously warned that China could attack Taiwan within the next decade, especially as the West is reeling from the war in Ukraine. At this moment, how do you assess the risks in the Taiwan Strait?
Kiesewett: I think Ukraine, the Persian Gulf (or Arabian Gulf), and the Taiwan Strait should be looked at in their entirety as different battlefields. For these CRINK countries, these are actually battlefields for coordination. Therefore, our defense and support must also be coordinated, and these three theaters must be treated as one.
Since the battlefields are interconnected, joint attacks or joint raids are possible. Assuming that Russia and Iran can contain the US aircraft carrier or the deployment of US military forces, creating a vacuum around Taiwan, or the public focus turns to Ukraine and gradually away from Taiwan, things may happen; assuming that Ukraine or Western Europe are under greater pressure than they are now, China may take advantage of the situation to achieve certain goals. So if the West's attention turns to other battlefields, we should watch the situation very carefully.
Afghanistan is a precedent. The failure of Afghanistan at that time (Editor's note: should refer to the chaotic situation after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021), or the complete collapse of the legitimate Afghan government, led to Putin's misjudgment. He believed that the West was weak and took advantage of this, taking advantage of the period when the United States, France, Italy and Germany held elections and established new governments or took office to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
This was foreseeable years, and especially months, before the war broke out. I was one of the few politicians who pointed out that the war in Ukraine would break out on February 22nd. We have made this assessment based on relevant events and very clear evidence.
Combining my military background and observations on related issues, I also see some signals that must be taken very seriously - the period from 2027 to 2029 is extremely challenging, and we must assume that certain things may happen.
DW: Because there will be elections in Taiwan and the United States in 2028?
Kiesewert: This is a factor, but also the upcoming elections in Germany in 2029, the elections in Poland and France in 2027.
DW: In recent years, Taiwan has seen China’s actions shift from large-scale military exercises to gray zone intrusions. In your opinion, what would it look like if China started an invasion of Taiwan? Will it be a full-scale military attack, a blockade, or an escalation of gray zone tactics?
Kiesewert: China may combine the two, but its main focus is on gray zone tactics.
For example, they may require specific countries to reduce shipments to Taiwan or even not ship to Taiwan, or launch legal battles and increase pressure on industries and labor unions in different countries to reduce exports or willingness to cooperate. There are so many dirty tricks that can be used, and we must be aware of them.
The characteristic of war is that it is unpredictable, and so are the invaders. Therefore, we must think in different scenarios and be prepared. We need to realize that modern war is not just a military war, it is a battlefield shaped by cognitive warfare, hybrid warfare, and state terrorism.
We must also inform and educate the public, who are sometimes more able to face the truth than some politicians imagine.
DW: If war does break out in the Taiwan Strait, what will Germany do? People in Taiwan expect the United States to send troops to help. Can they expect other partners and allies such as Germany or European countries to respond in the same way?
Kiesewert: Taiwan knows very well - just like Ukraine - that in extreme situations, you can only rely on yourself. Only by being self-reliant can you persuade others to support you.
If Ukraine is breached in three or seven days, as Putin hopes, or as some European politicians believe, then no one will help Ukraine.
Therefore, Taiwan must rely on itself first before other countries can help.
Germany is also an example. In the 1970s, we invested nearly 4% of GDP in defense. This convinced other NATO allies to station themselves on German soil. If we couldn't invest in defense then, no one else would help us.
Taiwan is a trustworthy country and is showing us that they are willing to defend themselves. Next, it depends on the decision of individual countries.
Germany deepens cooperation with Taiwan. Is the one-China policy feasible?
DW: Germany maintains the "One China" policy, but at the same time maintains deep economic and social ties with Taiwan, including the ESMC semiconductor project in Dresden. Beyond a symbolic visit, what concrete measures will Germany take to support Taiwan’s security and international engagement?
Kiesewert: Due to pressure from China and the decisions of certain countries, only 12 countries in the world recognize Taiwan as a country. Germany accepts the "One China" policy, but does not accept Taiwan being oppressed as a democratic government.
What we need to do is make China willing to accept Taiwan as an independent democracy in the long term. There is one China, the People's Republic of China; but on the other hand, there is also Taiwan, which considers itself an independent country and has never been part of China.
You know, we have to accept a rules-based international order. Even the Chinese Constitution itself provides some space in this regard. In addition, the Charter of the United Nations also guarantees the right to existence of existing countries. Within this framework, Germany can improve and strengthen cooperation with Taiwan.
We are very grateful for Taiwan's investment and the 10 billion euros in Saxony to establish semiconductor companies and other commitments. We also collaborate in artificial intelligence, semiconductor production and other economic sectors.
I think there is still a lot of room for cooperation between the two parties in the future. However, this is not decided by the country, but by the economic and business community. Because we are not a state-owned economy dominated by the government. We can therefore create the conditions and provide support for further cooperation between small, medium and large businesses.
The same is true in Taiwan. Taiwan is not a state-owned economy, but mainly privately owned. It is up to entrepreneurs to decide who they want to cooperate with and what kind of cooperation they want to carry out. I do see the business opportunities, but we should leave these decisions to the market and the independent decision-making processes of each company.
DW: Do you think the current "One China" policy framework is still feasible? Does it need to change?
Kiseweit: China supports Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine. We have to show - and this is very important - that Ukraine must win, which means that Russia must withdraw from Ukraine, pay reparations, and respect Ukraine's right to exist. Ukraine will serve as an example for other sovereign states and their right to self-determination.
If this turns out not to be the case, and Ukraine is defeated and becomes part of Russia’s sphere of influence, or even part of the Russian Federation, Taiwan will become the next target. China supports Russia in many aspects, including militarily. They are learning from this war, which has 3 levels. I don't mean land, sea and air, but military aggression, cognitive warfare and hybrid warfare.
Hybrid warfare, state or proxy terrorism, and cognitive warfare - the psychological battlefield where information is misused and disinformation is used to shape society and the population.
China is trying to expand pressure on Taiwan in trade, maritime traffic and every other area. The most important thing is to let China understand that Western civilization does not accept behavior that interferes with a country's right to exist.
We must realize that if countries like Taiwan are oppressed, we must help them defend themselves; at the same time, we must make it clear to China that we will help build Taiwan's self-deterrence capabilities and work together with South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Australia and other countries with similar ideals. If possible, work with the United States as well.
DW: In 2024, two German warships passed through the Taiwan Strait a few months after your visit to Taiwan. In a 2025 interview, you suggested "normalizing such naval exercises." Do you expect such voyages or other German naval exercises to take place around Taiwan again soon?
Kiesewert: Why not? There’s nothing to say about it, we should just do it. These are international waters and there is no dispute. The German government regards the Taiwan Strait as international waters, so there is nothing to talk about. Including the Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, they are all international waters, so why should we declare them? When necessary, just show up.
The expansion of right-wing forces in Germany may amplify Putin's comments
DW: The Alternative for Germany (AfD) recently achieved a major victory in Saxony-Anhalt, winning about 44% of the vote, more than double the CDU. How much of an impact does this have on federal politics? Will it become a crisis for the Merz government?
Kiesewert: Our prime minister should take the lead and implement the reforms he has announced. Any withdrawal or avoidance of clear decisions and clear plans will undermine his leadership. Therefore, whether it is strong or not is also a matter of credibility and willpower, and what we need now is stronger political will. After such a difficult year for Merz, he still has a chance to be a kind of Churchill, or at least a kind of Adenauer: show strength, tell the truth to the people, while making the partners in the governing coalition feel respected, affirm each other, and then actually get things done instead of just making demands or complaining.
DW: The rise of the AfD has transformed local politics and public debate. Do you think this might also undermine German consensus on foreign and security policy, especially on Russia, China, the EU and Taiwan? Is the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) under pressure to move closer to the AfD's position?
Kiesewert: If a majority of the population votes for these parties, there will be a change of government, which will have a huge impact on our policies and our politics. Therefore, we must have a fuller debate and let people see other options.
The Bundesliga Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW) is controlled by Moscow and is simply repeating Putin's rhetoric; the situation with the AfD has two levels.
The first is the national conservatives. This is a very traditional German thinking. Although it is not mainstream thinking, what it aspires to is the set of thinking between 1870 and 1940: German engineering technology, German technology, plus Russian resources, so that we can get rid of the influence of Britain and France. The United States did not yet play a significant role.
Today, this means withdrawing from NATO and the EU because the cost is too high. It's not true for us, but they make the public believe it is. They advocate breaking away from the EU, NATO and the euro and establishing a partnership with Russia.
But this amounts to forgetting history. Cooperation between Germany and Russia, and later the Soviet Union, did not benefit the countries caught between them, but caused them to cease to exist. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland were all wiped off the map.
And these countries - including Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland - are worried that the revival of the roughly 70-year-old cooperative relationship between Russia/the Soviet Union and Germany will once again evoke the nightmare of the past.
But there is a second dimension to the AfD that is very scary, and that is fascism.
What they said was not "human dignity is inviolable" but "German dignity is inviolable". Moreover, it is us who define who is German and who is not.
Not only is this offensive, it goes against our history and our laws. Therefore, we are now also discussing whether there should be more supervision of this party, because the fascists are hiding under the cloak of national conservatives. So far, we have not dared to let the public really face this point - that is, this is actually a fascist movement with the color of "blood nationalism" (völkisch).
DW: What if one day the AfD becomes a growing force to be reckoned with and enters government?
Kiesewetter: Then it must be a government that does not include the CDU or the CSU, because we are incompatible with them; that means there must be a majority against us.
But there are also the Green Party, the Social Democrats and us. We hope to continue to be a force in the fight against this fascist movement.
But containment alone won’t help, we must debunk them and their narratives, but also those behind them – like Russia.
DW: What about China?
Kiesewert: We know China has influence, but I don't want to talk about it publicly because it involves information that I can't release.
DW: Before I wrap up this interview, I want to talk about the brooches on your suits. Are you worried that displaying the flag of the Republic of China will bring you trouble?
Kiesewert: I like this brooch because it shows the friendship between Taiwan and Germany, and I bought it myself. I also wear it when visiting Taiwanese institutions in Berlin or attending events with Taiwanese friends. Why not?
Kiesewert won the election to the German Bundestag in 2009. He previously served in the Bundeswehr and retired from politics with the rank of colonel. Since 2014, he has served as the chief affairs officer (Obmann) of the CDU/CSU group in the Foreign Affairs Committee.
