Frenemies and friends: How does Australia find balance in superpower competition?
Author, Katy Watson
Role, BBC Australia correspondent
Reporting from, Townsville, North Queensland
Published 3 minutes ago
Reading time: 4 minutes
The sound of sniper shots breaks the silence of the Australian jungle. The missile hits its target and smoke rises in the distance. The drone began to buzz, but was soon drowned out by the sound of helicopters flying overhead.
All kinds of military equipment are put into use at all costs. But this is not a war zone - the last time Townsville saw war was during World War II. What lay before us was a display of military power.
"We live in a volatile world," said Australian Army Brigadier General Ben McLennan.
"It is very important to train an army to prepare it for a war that is more likely than ever before."
For Australians, who have always felt isolated from the problems faced by the rest of the world, war is no longer an abstract concept.
The country is thousands of miles away from the ongoing armed conflict, but like other places, it is facing the knock-on effects of the situation in Iran and Ukraine, such as rising fuel prices and rising inflation.
As China's military capabilities continue to improve and its influence in the Pacific region expands, Australia has become more concerned about the threats China represents.
Australia's response is to further deepen its relationship with the United States. The United States is both Australia's security ally and China's rival - another superpower.
But this also puts Australia in a tricky position - because of the rise of China, which has also become Australia's largest trading partner.
It’s a paradox that most of us are well aware of – perhaps why we’re asked to report on what Australia is doing to protect itself, but no one wants to reveal who they’re preparing to fight.
"We are rehearsing for a war - the most brutal war - a total war similar to World War II, similar to World War I," Brigadier General McLennan said, unwilling to reveal too much when asked who the enemy was.
Further ties with the United States
The war situation at hand was part of a large-scale joint military exercise called Southern Jackaroo. This is a training program involving the militaries of Australia, the United States and Japan, aiming to strengthen defense cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.
"We like to call ourselves America's 9/11 response force," said U.S. Marine Kevin Hicks.
And judging by their numbers, their readiness for deployment is higher than ever. In 2012, only about 200 U.S. Marines were sent to Australia for an annual, six-month deployment. Today it has grown to about 2,500 people.
With a quick read of Australia's Defense Strategy 2026, it's easy to see why these numbers are increasing.
"Intense competition among major powers—primarily the United States and China—will continue to be a feature of our strategic environment," the document states.
"China continues its largest military expansion in the world without the transparency or strategic assurances that the region has come to expect."
Military cooperation has deepened not just in troop deployments but also in military bases - particularly in northern Australia. RAAF Tindal in the Northern Territory, for example, has been upgraded to support U.S. long-range B-52 bombers.
But the security partnership between the United States, Britain and Australia - AUKUS - which provides Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, may be the biggest example of a deepening relationship.
The approach adopted by Australia is different from other middle powers. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has talked about the need for middle powers to realign their priorities in the face of an increasingly unreliable United States; but Australia appears to be preparing to tie itself even more closely to the United States.
At the same time, however, Australians themselves are becoming increasingly suspicious of their relationship with the United States.
"Only 31 per cent of Australians believe the United States will act responsibly in the world, and only 28 per cent believe China will do so," said Charles Lyons-Jones, a researcher at the Lowy Institute, citing the institute's annual poll.
"These results are particularly striking when you consider the extent to which the Australian government trusts the United States."
"Friends and enemies"
Australia's alliance with the United States is changing, and so is Australia's relationship with China.
The military may be preparing for potential military conflict, but the fact remains that China is Australia's most important economic partner.
Australia and China have established diplomatic relations since 1972, but China did not become Australia's largest trading partner until the early 2010s, when China had huge demand for a variety of goods provided by Australia.
Australia opens its economy to encourage business and trade; Chinese President Xi Jinping was even invited to address the Australian Parliament. Finally, the two sides signed a free trade agreement in 2015.
But this golden period did not last long. In 2020, Australia proposed investigating the origin of the COVID-19 epidemic. China opposed this direction of investigation and responded with tariffs.
In 2021, Australia became the first country to make a policy reversal on the "One Belt, One Road" initiative. China's "One Belt, One Road" is a massive global infrastructure plan; the Australian government canceled the relevant agreement between Victoria and the Chinese government three years after signing the agreement.
Several Australians have also been detained in China, including journalist Cheng Lei. She was released in 2023 after more than three years in detention.
Relations between the two countries have improved in recent years under the Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, but challenges remain.
For example, in June this year, China imposed a 55% tariff on Australian beef in order to protect its local market—even though the two sides had signed a free trade agreement.
Even with these twists and turns, a Lowy Institute poll this year found that a majority of Australians (61 per cent) still view China as more of an economic partner than a security threat. This proportion increased by 11 percentage points from last year.
However, when it comes to Chinese investment in Australia, Australians are more cautious.
"There are some European countries that invest more in Australia than China because our jurisdictions are more similar and there is a higher level of mutual trust between the two governments," Lyons-Jones said.
This year's Lowy Institute poll also showed that for the first time, more than half of Australians (51%) believe that Australia's relationship with China is more important than Australia's relationship with the United States.
The rise and fall of superpowers
Earlier this month, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, a fluent Mandarin speaker, gave a speech about the "dramatic changes" that are reshaping Australia's national security landscape, including "the continued rise of China as the United States continues to debate what kind of global power it wants to be."
"The United States is really making some very significant changes, and more and more Australians - and I think more and more people around the world - are starting to ask: 'Is this the big brother that we can all trust and have all our trust in?'" she said.
In this competition, Australia will inevitably be affected. The United States is Australia's security ally. Although it has become more unreliable than in the past, it is still Australia's main reliance.
But economically, the same is true for China. This is not an either/or relationship, but a balance.
"It is impossible for Australia to choose one side and (abandon) the other - this is not in Australia's interests," Zhang Yue said.
"It is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain this balance, but Australia must do it."
