Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar announced Türkiye's 2040 energy vision before COP31 to be held in Antalya. Speaking at the National Energy 2040 launch held at the Presidential Dolmabahçe Working Office, Bayraktar said, "In 2040, in the Türkiye Century, our goal is to make Türkiye independent in energy." he said.
Electrification is at the center of the plan. Bayraktar stated that Türkiye will electrify its economy and said, "Türkiye will reach 36 percent electrification in 2040." he said. In the approximately one-hour presentation attended by public, private sector, academy and media representatives, the current state of energy in the world, Türkiye's current situation and 2040 targets were discussed one by one.
The total investment need of the targets was announced as 500 billion dollars. According to the Ministry, the direct employment impact of these investments is approximately 108 thousand people; With the indirect impact, it is expected to open employment opportunities for approximately 250 thousand families. You can find a detailed breakdown of the figures in the presentation in our news article where the National Energy 2040 plan is explained in tables.
Five basic pillars of National Energy 2040
Bayraktar said that they are focusing on five main areas as they go towards the goal of an energy-independent Türkiye in 2040: energy efficiency, nuclear energy, renewable energy, oil and natural gas and mines. The Minister explained the essence of the program as "In one word, the essence of this program is that it will now electrify the Turkish economy." He summarized it with his words.
According to Bayraktar, the first step is to transform demand. "If we are going to be energy independent in Türkiye, we need to change our consumption habits and consumption methods." The Minister emphasized that the increase in electricity demand will come from electric vehicles, data centers, green hydrogen production, heat pumps and water treatment.
Installed power will increase to 281 thousand megawatts
Türkiye's electricity installed power is at 123 thousand megawatts (123 GW) by 2025. According to the plan, this figure will increase by approximately 160 thousand megawatts to 281 thousand megawatts in 2040. The share of renewable resources in installed capacity is aimed to increase from 63 percent to 77 percent. Bayraktar said that the investment required for this growth is approximately 190 billion dollars.
In order to achieve the target, YEKA competitions of at least 2 thousand megawatts, offshore wind power plants (RES) of 6 thousand megawatts, addition of hybrid capacity to existing power plants and capacity allocation of up to 1 megawatt are planned every year. Pointing out the strategic importance of distributed generation, Bayraktar said, "Energy infrastructures become the main target in wars. We aim to install small power plants under one megawatt more intensively." he said.
$36 billion investment in the grid
The plan does not only cover power plants. An investment of 36 billion dollars is anticipated on the transmission side. It is aimed to increase the high voltage lines from approximately 77 thousand kilometers to 112 thousand kilometers and the transformer capacity from 200 thousand megawatts to 316 thousand megawatts. Reminding that a significant part of the distribution licenses will expire in 2036, Bayraktar said that a mentality transformation based on the "customer is the benefactor" approach is needed in distribution companies.
140 GWh of storage and 20 million electric vehicles
As the share of renewable energy increases, the flexibility of the grid becomes critical. Bayraktar announced that Türkiye needs 140 gigawatt hours of energy storage and a 6 gigawatt pumped storage hydroelectric power plant. It is aimed to increase the electricity connection (interconnection) capacity with neighboring countries from 5.4 gigawatts to 15 gigawatts.
Electric transportation is one of the most important flexibility items of the plan. According to the prediction shared by Bayraktar, 147 out of every thousand people in Türkiye will own an electric vehicle in 2040. It is expected that Türkiye will reach a fleet of 20 million electric and hybrid vehicles, thus almost half of the total vehicle stock of approximately 41 million will be electric.
11 percent of electricity comes from nuclear
On the nuclear side, the goal is to reach a nuclear capacity of 10 thousand megawatts in 2040 by adding at least 5 thousand megawatt small modular reactors (SMR) next to the 4 thousand 800 megawatt Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant. Bayraktar said, "By 2040, Türkiye will have met 11 percent of its total electricity needs from nuclear power. This will prevent the import of 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas." he said.
The goal of meeting all demand in oil and natural gas
Today, Türkiye needs 993 thousand barrels of crude oil per day. According to Bayraktar, with the transition to electric vehicles, this demand will decrease to 718 thousand barrels per day in 2040. It is aimed to meet all of this demand in 2040 with domestic and international production, which is currently at 15 percent. A similar strategy is being followed in natural gas: Türkiye, which meets 15 percent of its needs today, aims to meet the entire demand of 57 billion cubic meters in 2040.
Bayraktar described the public companies in the field of energy, TEİAŞ, EÜAŞ, Eti Maden, Turkish Petroleum and BOTAŞ as "national champion candidates" and said that these companies should undergo structural transformation.
National Energy 2040 in Numbers
92 percent national production
77 percent renewable share in installed power
36 percent electrification rate
40 percent emission reduction
7,500 kilowatt hours of electricity consumption per person per year
Production target of 1.7 million barrels of oil and natural gas equivalent per day
500 billion dollars investment, employment for approximately 250 thousand families
