Analysis by CNN's Tim Lister
(CNN) - US President Donald Trump is struggling to get the United States out of a war he started about six months ago, and his statements vary between claiming that Tehran is “begging” to reach an agreement and threatening to renew military attacks.
The hard-line Iranian leadership is currently working on preparing and developing its own strategy to continue the confrontation with Washington.
According to an Iranian official, this strategy focuses on offensive operations alongside defensive operations to neutralize enemy threats.
This tougher stance coincides with the expiration of the Memorandum of Understanding, a US-Iranian agreement aimed at ending the war, while the dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz remains.
Iranian military leaders believe they are in a strong position to extract concessions from the United States, and that they can develop Iranian weapons systems to close the gap with their stronger adversaries, according to analysts.
It would also likely mean a greater mobilization of Iran's allies in Yemen, Iraq, and other regions. In recent weeks, Houthi militants in Yemen have threatened Saudi shipping ships and attacked Saudi oil refineries, while Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have targeted the kingdom's oil infrastructure.
The spark for the new position in Tehran was sparked by decrees issued last week in the name of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with the aim of reorganizing the Iranian security leadership.
An advisor to the Iranian leader, Muhammad Mokhber, said, “The strategy of turning the war into an offensive situation if Iran’s conditions are not met will undoubtedly change the balance of power in the world.”
The new head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, belongs to a faction within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that believes "the only way to extract concessions from the United States is to continue fighting, to put pressure on it, and to inflict continued damage on Donald Trump," George Washington University associate professor of Middle East politics Sina Azodi told CNN earlier this month.
Mojtaba Khamenei's decree, in which he confirmed the appointment of Ahmed Vahidi as commander of the Revolutionary Guard, indicated the need to enhance readiness to launch "strong offensive operations against the enemy."
Hamid Reza Azizi of the Dutch Clingendael Research Institute believes, “It was clear that Vahidi’s mission was to review Iran’s military strategy towards a more assertive and offensive direction.”
Days after the decree was issued, a senior IRGC official, General Yadollah Javani, told Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency that "Iran's actions are defensive, although it may take an offensive stance in the future."
The advisor to the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Mohammad Reza Naghdi, also said that the Revolutionary Guard is working to develop its ability to carry out operations “on enemy territory.”
He added in a statement to the official Iranian Radio and Television Corporation: “We need the ability to transfer operations to enemy territory, whenever the need arises and the order is issued to do so. The Revolutionary Guard has been assigned the task of launching attacks on the enemy in a smart, selective and targeted manner.”
This means targeting US military installations in the region again, and the new generation of highly maneuverable ballistic missiles equipped with cluster warheads, as well as the innovative use of drones, reveal that Iran has rapidly adjusted its tactics in recent months.
As for the associate researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, H. A. Hellyer, he said: “The regime has withstood the American-Israeli bombing and retaliatory responses from the Gulf states, and is still standing.”
“The regime is now seeking to turn this resilience into a permanent political advantage in the region, rather than letting this initiative fade over time,” Hellyer added to CNN.
While Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute says: “Tehran believes it has military superiority and is openly discussing moving to attack rather than simply responding to American attacks.”
He added: "In doing so, Iran will not only wrest control from the United States over the scope and geography of the war, but will also control its timing."
Azizi of the Clingendael Institute believes that Iran is preparing for short- and long-term scenarios, adding that the current situation, in which there is neither war nor peace, with worsening economic problems “may push the Iranian leadership to escalate to pressure Trump either to lift the naval blockade or to agree to an agreement on terms more favorable to Iran.”
Azizi continued: “The Iranian leadership may conclude that the cost of entering into another war is less than the cost of the gradual erosion of its capabilities under the dual pressure of sanctions and blockade.”
One aspect of this offensive doctrine is the ongoing and unpredictable attacks on oil tankers leaving the Gulf, in order to keep oil prices high. Several tankers belonging to the UAE state oil company ADNOC have been targeted in recent weeks.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard officials have spoken openly about sabotaging several submarine cables running through the Gulf, which is another form of asymmetric warfare.
In the long term, there may be a shift in Iranian priorities away from the axis of resistance, which has relied to some extent on non-state groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and their allied militias in Iraq.
“This element has become somewhat secondary to Iran's missile and drone capabilities, and as Iranian leaders have grown more confident during the war, signs of a shift toward a proactive approach have begun to emerge,” Azizi said.
This does not mean that Tehran will abandon its agents, quite the opposite.
Iranian official media covers the movements and statements of most senior officials, but ignored the visit of the commander of foreign operations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to Iraq last week.
The commander of the Quds Force, Ismail Qaani, arrived in Baghdad at the same time as the new government, under American pressure, began steps to disarm the Iranian-backed militias and integrate them into the regular army.
Iraq is the focus of the regional conflict between Iran and the United States, and Iran has exercised great influence there since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2002.
Iran is unlikely to give up the influence provided by its allies deployed in the region, even if Israel weakens some of them or loses its foothold as a result of regime change, as is the case in Syria.
Saudi Arabia could find itself surrounded on three sides if Iran and its regional proxies launch a counterattack. According to a Gulf source, Iran is still investing heavily in providing the Houthis with expertise and intelligence, while the Houthis, in turn, provide advice to Iraqi militias.
But the main goal of Iran's reshaped military leadership is to build a more flexible war machine with central command and develop its missile and drone capabilities.
Naghdi, senior advisor to the Revolutionary Guard Commander, said: “This major transformation in our defense sector is necessary due to the current circumstances, so that we are not limited to merely preserving ourselves.”
The regime feels that it is in a better position.
“They have not formally established control over the Strait of Hormuz, and although they are in no hurry, they want to consolidate their advantage,” Hellyer told CNN.
