Brazil arrives on the eve of the 2026 elections with a different scenario in the job market than what was seen in 2022: unemployment at historic lows and employment records, formal jobs and salary income, but with challenges for the president to be elected.
Informality still close to 40% of the workforce, expansion of work through applications (uberization), pejotization, effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on entry vacancies, corrosion of Social Security with accelerated longevity and mismatch between training and what the market needs are the main points cited by experts heard by Folha.
Data from Pnad Contínua, from IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), show that Brazil had, in the quarter ending in July, 5.3% unemployment, the lowest rate for this period in the historical series, starting in 2012. In the same period of 2022, the level was 9.1%.
In 2026, the employment level broke a record for the quarter up to July (58.9%), while the number of formal employees in the private sector reached 39.4 million — the highest in the entire series.
For economist Janaína Feijó, from FGV Ibre (Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas), the quantitative improvement coexists with qualitative challenges aggravated by the economic slowdown and high interest rates. "The market is slowing down. If [the country] doesn't take care of the macrofiscal part, all gains could be exhausted and, even if care is taken, we won't see these lows again."
For her, the platformization of work, with differences between delivery drivers and app drivers who transport passengers, is one of the biggest challenges for whoever is elected. "The main issue that we economists have noticed is that the 2017 labor reform was insufficient to cover this modality. A portion of these workers are completely uncovered," he says.
Motorbike courier Felipe Zuppo, 38, swapped formal employment for work on apps with the arrival of platforms and participated, in 2023, in a group in the Lula (PT) government that did not reach consensus on regulating the profession.
"I expected the government to be tougher, but it's a gigantic lobby. The law wasn't as we would have liked. We are workers and we were left without labor rights. We don't want to be a CLT, but they wanted to transform us into platform workers, through civil law. Passing a law just for the sake of passing it isn't enough", he says.
Janaína sees the MEI (Individual Microentrepreneur), created to formalize small businesses and include workers in the INSS (National Social Security Institute), a tax bomb: according to her, it welcomes those not hired by the CLT (Consolidation of Labor Laws) with a contribution of 5% of the minimum wage.
She also points out the mismatch between training, business demand and inequality. "It's bad for us to think that we would have to take a course just because the market is demanding it, but in the market there is the issue of demand and supply", he says. "Networking matters a lot, and people in the community don't have that network."
Social communicator Nicole Guedes de Andrade Suvires, 22, works at a pet shop chain in ABC São Paulo. Although she was looking for a job in her field of training, she says she is happy because she was unemployed for a while. For two years, he was a PJ. "I liked being a PJ because of the flexibility of the schedule. Now, I work 6x1, but I have benefits."
In the view of economist Rodolpho Sartori, from the Buysidebrazil consultancy, the job market has changed and appears to have become more resistant to shocks in Brazil. This, according to him, is illustrated by the strength of the indicators even in a scenario of economic slowdown under high interest rates this year.
For Sartori, there are hypotheses that can explain the resilience of the numbers, including the flexibility brought by the 2017 labor reform and the emergence of occupations such as those associated with service applications.
The framework contributes to reducing unemployment and generating income, but does not eliminate the country's structural challenges, considers Sartori. One of them is how to absorb workers with higher qualification levels.
"It's that story about the engineer who became an Uber driver. It's a meme, but it's true," he says.
The informality rate, which measures the percentage of the workforce that works without a license or without a CNPJ, was 37.5% in the quarter up to July. The percentage has already reached more than 40% in the historical series.
One of the categories with the highest informality is service application workers. In 2025, Brazil would have around 2 million people carrying out their main or secondary work using these tools, according to the annual Pnad Contínua module released this month by IBGE.
Among professionals who used platforms for their main work, flexibility was the most cited reason for use (26.8%). Lack of another job (24.6%) and higher income than in other available jobs (20.8%) came next.
What do the presidential candidates' government plans propose?
Lula (PT): expand labor protection, maintain the policy of increasing the minimum wage, combat pejotization and regulate work on platforms, with rights, remuneration, algorithmic transparency and social security coverage. Defends the end of the 6x1 scale, 40-hour working day without salary reduction, requalification and changes in Social Security financing.
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): gradually reduce the cost of labor, prioritize Bolsa Família beneficiaries in employment and qualifications and create cheaper contracts for young people aged 18 to 24 and unemployed people aged 50 and over.
Romeu Zema (New): alternative regime to the CLT, with negotiation of working hours, remuneration and holidays, daily working hours above eight hours and a limit of 44 hours per week, and fewer charges.
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): technical education, requalification, curricula for AI, automation, data and cybersecurity.
Augusto Cury (Avante): entrepreneurship against AI unemployment and transforming Bolsa Família into a gateway to the market.
Renan Santos (Mission): no specific proposals for the job market, but defends freedom for business growth.
