AI-generated summary
As of the end of 2022, Israel's military intelligence considered the possibility of war low, but in the summer of 2023, AMAN Major General Aharon Haliva's assessment changed and the risk was said to increase. This new assessment was shared with former defense ministers and senior officials and an urgent meeting with Netanyahu was requested.
Speaking to Israel's Maariv newspaper, former National Security Council President Giora Eiland stated that she had a one-on-one meeting with Netanyahu at the Ministry of Defense headquarters in Tel Aviv on August 16, 2023.
Eiland stated that during the meeting, he warned Netanyahu about the possibility of a war starting at the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024.
Noting that he took the warning decision after the then Director of Military Intelligence (AMAN), Major General Aharon Haliva, changed his security assessment, Eiland stated that Haliva detected a serious increase in the risk of war in the summer of 2023.
Eiland said that Israeli military intelligence saw the possibility of war as "low" until the end of 2022, but Haliva changed this analysis in the June-July 2023 period and drew attention to the risk of a multi-front war.
Eiland stated that this new assessment was shared at the meeting attended by 8 former senior officials, including former defense ministers such as former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, Moshe Yalon and Amos Yadlin, and stated that she requested an urgent meeting with Netanyahu on the urgency of the situation and conveyed her war concerns.
The Eiland in question is known as the architect of the "Generals Plan", which was published on the Israel-based "Ynet" news site in September 2024 and envisages the siege of the northern Gaza Strip and the exile of Palestinians from there.
It was claimed that the President of the UAE also warned
In the report published on September 8 by journalist Shlomi Eldar in Israel's Haaretz newspaper, it was claimed that United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan warned Netanyahu about Hamas' intention to launch a major attack in a phone call on September 23, 2023.
The news claimed that the warning came at a time when Israel did not respond to demands to release Palestinian prisoners and reduce the economic pressure on Gaza, and that Netanyahu ignored this warning and did not convey it to senior officials in the security agency.
In the statement made by the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the allegations in question, it was noted that Abu Dhabi's efforts since October 7, 2023 were focused on "reducing tension, strengthening regional stability and limiting violence".
In the statement, it was stated that state institutions between the UAE and Israel have maintained direct communication channels since the beginning of relations, and that all relevant intelligence information has been and continues to be shared when needed.
Discussions regarding political, military and intelligence weaknesses before October 7 continue in Israel.
Hamas launched an attack on military bases and settlements on the Gaza border on October 7, "in response to Israel's daily violations against the Palestinian people and their sanctuaries, especially the Al-Aqsa Mosque."
While Netanyahu refuses to take responsibility for the weakness before the attack, he puts the blame on the army and security agencies, while the opposition argues that political responsibility belongs to Netanyahu.
While the disagreements between Netanyahu and the opposition deepen before the general elections in the country, public opinion polls indicate that Netanyahu cannot reach the majority to form a new government.
Netanyahu has been heading the current cabinet, described as the "most right-wing government" in Israeli history, since December 2022.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
An official investigation will be launched into military intelligence's pre-October 7 risk assessment.
Likely · Within weeks
Israel's internal security and intelligence reforms will be on the agenda.
Very likely · Within months
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