AI-generated summary
The trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union provisionally entered into force on May 1, 2026 after almost 27 years of negotiations. The event in Brasília released the first results of the treaty, showing growth in Brazilian exports to the European bloc.
The trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union boosted Brazilian exports to the European bloc by 30.7% between May and September this year, compared to the same period last year. The data was released this Tuesday (13) by the Minister of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services, Márcio Elias Rosa, during an event in Brasília.
From January to September, Brazilian exports to the EU totaled US$44.17 billion, an increase of 20% compared to the first nine months of 2025.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mauro Vieira, also highlighted the results of the agreement and confirmed that bilateral trade between Mercosur and European Union countries has increased by more than US$6 billion since the approval and entry into force of the treaty.
“Brazilian exports increased by 10.4% in 2026. The Mercosur-European Union agreement alone, from May until now, meant an expansion of 30% in our exports”, declared Vieira.
The agreement provisionally came into force on May 1, after almost 27 years of negotiations between the two blocs.
Expansion
During the event, Elias Rosa stated that the growth of Brazilian exports is not restricted to agribusiness. According to the minister, the country's foreign trade increased, on average, 10.5%, in an international scenario marked by geopolitical tensions and the increase in trade barriers.
The minister also highlighted the expansion of Brazil's commercial relations with different markets and attributed the results to the expansion capacity of national companies and the government's role in promoting foreign trade.
"It is the strength of the private sector and the capacity of the private sector to expand, especially in agriculture. The number one mission of Brazil's new industrialization involves precisely agroindustry", he stated.
When commenting on relations with the United States, Elias Rosa classified the moment as “delicate”, but defended the continuity of diplomatic negotiations.
“But we will not leave the negotiation dialogue,” he said.
New markets
The announcement of the commercial results took place during a ceremony at the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock that celebrated the opening of 700 new international markets for Brazilian agricultural products since the beginning of 2023.
The openings took place in 99 destinations, across countries and economic blocs, following health authorizations for the entry of Brazilian products.
The Minister of Agriculture, André de Paula, compared the result to that recorded in the previous administration.
“There were 700 market openings compared to 241 under the previous government,” he stated.
De Paula also highlighted the performance of agribusiness and the prospects for national production.
"We plan to reach 29% of agricultural GDP this year. The 2026/27 harvest should have 366 million tons", he added.
Goal
According to an estimate by the Brazilian Export and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil), the country has exported US$5.8 billion to new markets opened since 2023. The agency's projection is that sales to these destinations will reach US$80 billion in the next four years.
André de Paula also stated that Brazil intends to end the year as the world's largest food exporter.
“We exported US$ 169 billion in the year to date, US$ 2 billion below the United States, but we will end the year as the largest food exporter”, he declared.
The minister also highlighted the federal government's investments in financing rural production, including resources allocated to corporate and family agriculture through the Safra Plan.
"This government invested more than R$610 billion in the current Safra Plan for corporate and family agriculture. In the four years of Lula's government, more than R$1 trillion were invested. This shows the importance we give to Brazilian agriculture", he stated.
De Paula also cited the authorization granted by China for the Brazilian export of pork offal and expressed expectations of new market openings for national agricultural products.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Brazilian exports to the new markets opened since 2023 will reach US$80 billion in the next four years.
Possible · Within years
Brazil will end the year as the world's largest food exporter.
Likely · Within months
The commercial dollar closed up 0.74%, quoted at R$5.023, despite the fall abroad, while the Ibovespa fell 1.04% to 206,887.52 points after historic records in the previous week. The market was influenced by profit adjustments, the electoral scenario and the mixed performance of international oil, with Brent falling and WTI rising.
The IMF projected growth of 2.2% for the Brazilian economy in 2026, below the previous estimate of 2.4%, but above the government's projection of 2.0%. For 2027, the forecast fell from 2.2% to 1.9%. The report cites high interest rates, withdrawal of fiscal stimuli and international uncertainties as factors behind the slowdown, while inflation and unemployment remain within expected targets.
The federal government announced five measures for MEIs, including forgiveness of public debts, renegotiation of private debts via Desenrola 3.0, creation of Pix MEI for investments, increase in the revenue ceiling and exemption from invoices for individuals.
The Central Bank's Focus Bulletin raised the inflation projection (IPCA) for 2026 from 5.01% to 5.22%. Simultaneously, the market reduced expectations for the Selic rate from 13.50% to 13.25% per year and maintained the GDP growth forecast at 1.85%.
The IMF lowered growth projections for Latin America and the Caribbean, citing the impact of the global energy shock and the lack of benefits from the AI sector in the region. Brazil and Argentina had estimates cut, while Mexico had a mixed review.

The IMF revised Brazil's growth downwards to 2.2% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, citing restrictive interest rates, withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and global uncertainty. Despite the slowdown, the Fund's forecasts remain above Brazilian market expectations.