(Washington = Yonhap News) Correspondent Hong Jeong-gyu = The results of a public opinion poll were released on the 4th (local time) showing that a significant number of Latino voters in the United States have turned their backs on President Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
Latino (Americans of Latin American origin) is used interchangeably with Hispanic, which refers to people from Spanish-speaking countries, and makes up about 16% of the total electorate. In general, they are classified as 'swing voters' who have a stronger tendency to support the Democratic Party but whose tendencies change with each election.
According to a poll conducted by NBC in the United States in conjunction with Spanish-language broadcaster Telemundo, when asked, 'Which party do you want to control the Federal Congress?', 59% of respondents chose the Democratic Party and 35% chose the Republican Party.
This is approximately double the 13 percentage point advantage that the Democratic Party (54%) had over the Republican Party (42%) in a public opinion poll conducted at the same time ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
Latino support played a significant role in President Trump's return to power. Ahead of the presidential or midterm elections, Latino support for the Republican Party rose from 21% in 2016 to 33% in 2022 and to 42% in 2024.
Compared to 2024, Latinos' approval rating for the Republican Party fell by 7 percentage points this year, which NBC explained was the result of their growing antipathy toward President Trump's administration of state affairs.
Latino voters' approval rating for President Trump's administration was only 27%. Various opinion polls show that President Trump's approval rating among all voters is lower than the 30% range.
Respondents most strongly opposed President Trump's administration of the government in the areas of cost of living represented by high prices (78%) and economic policy (74%). They also opposed immigration policy (69%) and foreign policy (68%). Even border security, which received the most positive reviews, had more opposition (58%).
Ahead of the 2022 midterm elections during the former Joe Biden administration, this is higher than the response rate against then-President Biden's cost of living issues (60%) and economic policies (54%). This means that Latinos' criticism of the ruling party over economic issues has grown.
Additionally, about two-thirds of respondents pointed out that the Trump administration's enforcement of immigration laws was excessive. 83% of respondents supported deporting illegal immigrants who have committed serious crimes, but only 37% supported deporting all illegal immigrants.
Such public opinion is expected to affect the election results in states with a large proportion of Latino voters. According to Pew Research, the proportion of Latino voters is in the following order: New Mexico (43%), California (33%), Texas (32%), Arizona (25%), Florida (23%), and Nevada (22%).
In particular, Texas is a traditionally strong Republican region, but is considered a battleground in this Senate election. NBC pointed out that Texas and Florida have several congress districts with large Latino populations in the 2024 elections, and there is a greater possibility that the congressmen here will flip from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party.
However, from the Democratic Party's perspective, there was also an aspect that showed that they could not be optimistic about the results of the midterm elections. Although the Democratic Party may benefit from anti-Trump sentiment, the evaluation of the Democratic Party itself is still sluggish.
The poll found that 42% of Latino voters had an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. This is a 4% point increase from the time of the 2024 presidential election. Regarding the Democratic Socialism (DSA) line within the Democratic Party, there were far more negative (41%) feelings than positive (13%) feelings.
This survey was conducted using a combination of phone interviews and online surveys from the 21st to the 28th of last month targeting 800 registered Latino voters. The margin of error is ±3.5%p.
