Wait and hope! On Monday, the market consolidated wisely around $63,445, without crossing the resistance of $64,000, while waiting for a single meeting: the minutes of the FOMC meeting of July 28 and 29 (the detailed report of the Fed's internal debates, published three weeks after each meeting). This Wednesday, the wait is coming to an end. Bitcoin is trading around $64,000 at the time of writing, driven by a rebound in Solana which drags Ether in its wake while Korean semiconductors plunge more than 7%. The Fed releases its minutes at 2 p.m. For the first time in months, it is not a rate cut that the market fears, but an increase.
FOMC: the real risk is no longer the decline, it’s the rise
Let's start from the beginning. At the July 28-29 meeting, three committee members voted for a rate increase. A first since 2016, when three Fed governors were already on the same side of the debate. This Wednesday's minutes will therefore detail this precedent, line by line, position by position.
As for the futures markets, bets on a further increase in September have declined significantly in recent days, since the publication of a weaker than expected American employment report at the beginning of August.
Three dissenting votes out of twelve cannot be erased with a single figure. And Kevin Warsh, head of the Fed, is due to speak in Jackson Hole a few days after this publication, an annual symposium that the markets always monitor closely. Enough to prolong the nervousness on the indices as on the cryptos, well beyond 2 p.m.
Bitcoin in the wake of Solana, Korea in the red
On the cryptocurrencies side precisely. This morning, Solana is pulling Bitcoin and Ether up. Shares of Korean semiconductors fell by more than 7% a few hours before a deadline that the entire market was watching.
On the on-chain data side, VanEck now lists 8 capitulation signals out of 12 activated (indicators which, when they reach an extreme level, suggest that sellers are largely finished selling), with realized volatility falling to 27.2%. The house is counting on a shift towards an accumulation phase between September and November.
Long-time holders (wallets that have held onto their bitcoins for more than five months) nevertheless sold 356,000 BTC in one month, a figure that coexists with the return of large wallets: according to Bloomberg, whales added $2.9 billion worth of Bitcoin in 60 days, or around 43,000 BTC. A contradictory signal, it is up to everyone to read into it what they want.
Strategy at a standstill, BlackRock imperturbable
Strategy has not purchased a single Bitcoin since the week of June 15, a sign that conviction is no longer unanimous among large buyers. The two schools compete. Michael Saylor instead rebuilds a cash cushion before facing the dividends of the STRC (the preferred stock through which Strategy financed itself to buy Bitcoin, with a fixed dividend to be honored), without publicly renouncing the thesis. BlackRock, conversely, characterizes the fall of almost 50% since October 2025 as a simple positioning correction and maintains that allocating 1 to 2% of a portfolio to Bitcoin improves returns over the long term. The same market, two opposing readings.
