The competition for seats in cities with a trillion-dollar GDP has recently seen new trends. The pressure mainly falls on provincial capital cities that have not yet reached the trillion-dollar threshold.
Not long ago, the newly elected secretary of the Nanchang Municipal Party Committee proposed that "the regional GDP exceeds the one trillion mark as soon as possible." Coincidentally, Shijiazhuang, Kunming, etc. have also set themselves the goal of sprinting to one trillion. Shijiazhuang even proposed to vigorously implement the strategy of strengthening the provincial capital and strive to exceed one trillion as soon as possible.
The words are slightly different, but the sense of urgency to sprint to a trillion dollars is very similar, and the signals conveyed are also highly consistent: if you don’t advance, you will retreat, and if you advance slowly, you will retreat.
Looking back on 2006, Shanghai became the first city in the country with a GDP exceeding one trillion. At that time, one trillion was the exclusive symbol of top cities. In less than two decades, the Trillion Club has expanded to nearly 30 members. What is even more noteworthy is that new entrants are no longer limited to provincial capital cities and cities specifically designated in the state plan. A number of ordinary prefecture-level cities have also begun to be shortlisted.
For these prefecture-level cities, one trillion is a counterattack; for provincial capital cities, one trillion has gradually become a necessary admission ticket. Without this coupon, the city’s level will not be recognized when attracting investment, its economic size will not be significant enough when seeking policies, and its industrial space will lack appeal when attracting talents. Trillion is not the end, but it is the prerequisite for participating in higher-level competition.
The economies of Nanchang, Shijiazhuang, and Kunming are all still at the 800 billion level. It’s not far, it’s not far, it’s not close, it’s not. The last 100 billion is often more difficult than the first 900 billion.
What is really urgent is the first priority
Nanchang is not ranked high among the provincial capitals in central China; Shijiazhuang, in Hebei Province, has long been overshadowed by Tangshan; Kunming is in the southwest, and it is difficult to relax in the face of the strong siphons from Chengdu and Chongqing.
If the provincial capital lacks sufficient strength, the entire province will lack a strong fulcrum in the regional game. Resources are flowing out, industries are difficult to gather, and talents are difficult to retain. It is natural to become passive in regional competition.
Therefore, these three cities are chasing trillions on the surface, but in reality they are competing for the core position of the province. Building a strong provincial capital is not a face-saving project, but a survival proposition in provincial competition.
How to sprint to a trillion?
In the past, there were two ways for cities to increase their GDP. One is investment, and the other is zoning and mergers.
Major infrastructure, real estate, and major projects once had immediate results. But now the property market has entered the era of stock, land finance has ebbed, and large infrastructure has bid farewell to extensive expansion. It is becoming increasingly difficult to rely on investment to achieve scale.
Merger and expansion were once a shortcut. Hefei, Chengdu, Jinan, and Changchun have all experienced the benefits. But the wind direction has tightened, and simple "annexation" expansion is no longer a replicable answer.
Therefore, the trillions in the future can only be achieved through real industry efforts.
Nanchang’s trump card lies in manufacturing. Electronic information, aviation, new materials, and new energy all have a certain foundation. But whether the industrial chain is long enough, the leader is strong enough, and the innovation is dense enough determines whether it can stabilize the growth rate.
Shijiazhuang is betting on leading industries such as biomedicine, electronic information, and equipment manufacturing, and the idea of "Beijing-Tianjin R&D, Shijiazhuang transformation" has gradually become clear. The difficulty lies in how to turn the geographical advantage of being close to Beijing and Tianjin into a winning factor for its own industry.
Kunming's shortcomings are more obvious. The proportion of industry is relatively low, and the economy relies heavily on tourism and service industries. Without hard industrial support, it will not be easy to achieve the trillion-dollar goal. Kunming's proposal of "grasping industries and focusing on industry" is the right direction, but the key lies in execution.
This round of provincial capital cities such as Nanchang and Shijiazhuang emphasize the strengthening of provincial capitals, which should be different from the past. In the past, the strategy of strengthening the provincial capital sometimes led to excessive concentration of resources in the provincial capital and hindered the development of surrounding areas. Today, provincial capitals should play the role of growth engines rather than resource siphons.
For example, Hefei's practice provides a reference. Through the deployment of emerging industries and innovative capital investment, Hefei has not only achieved its own leap, but also radiated and promoted the development of Anhui Province. The key to strengthening the provincial capital is not to drain surrounding resources, but to enlarge the industrial pie so that spillover effects can benefit the entire province.
For Nanchang and Shijiazhuang, one trillion is just a phased goal. The longer-term question is, after reaching one trillion yuan, can it drive the whole province? Can we strive for a higher position in the national urban landscape?
The Trillion Club is still expanding, and regional competition will not wait for anyone.
Nanchang said "as soon as possible", Shijiazhuang said "as soon as possible", and Kunming said "continue to rise." The wording is different, the sense of urgency is the same.
On the surface, this race is a battle for GDP figures, but behind it is a battle for urban energy levels, industrial ecology and regional voice.
It's a good thing to be anxious.
But being anxious is not enough, you have to look at how to run next.
