Is this the best time for US strategists to push for abandoning ambiguity on Taiwan?

For nearly five decades, the United States’ Taiwan policy has centred on strategic ambiguity by not declaring whether it would intervene militarily in a potential Taiwan conflict.

This policy – designed to deter Beijing from using force while preventing Taipei from formally declaring independence – is being challenged by realist US strategists amid a broader debate over America’s role in the world, growing constraints on US military might and a shifting regional balance of power driven by China’s military rise.

A small group of realist US strategists is pushing for the US to rule out military intervention over Taiwan to avoid the possibility of a catastrophic war between mainland China and the US. Experts said this idea, despite still being a minority view, was at least opening debate on the long-standing one-sided policy.

“When US officials first adopted strategic ambiguity over Taiwan, China’s military was no match for that of the US. This is no longer the case,” wrote Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Washington-based think tank Defence Priorities, in an opinion piece late last month.

“At the same time, the American military suddenly seems fragile, lacking the advanced munitions and naval forces it would need for a major power conflict and facing serious vulnerabilities in its basing infrastructure.”