Chancellor checks the care savings package - but the financial gap remains open

It seems a bit as if the Chancellor has a reform calendar and puts a tick every time a project goes through the cabinet. So he can now check the box for care: the savings package has been decided.

However, if you take a closer look, this has neither succeeded in reform nor closed the financial gap in long-term care insurance. The coalition has bought itself a few months of time with the resolution, which still has to go through the Bundestag.

Merz put pressure on him

Internally it is said: The Chancellor in particular has put pressure on in the last few days. He really wanted to have the care law in the cabinet this week - even if the negotiators from the SPD and the Union were still far apart a few days ago.

It can be assumed that Friedrich Merz really wanted to give the impression that the reform projects were making progress. Nothing should stand still so that the “autumn of reforms” finally shows results. It is also important for him: His new Health Minister Carsten Linnemann (CDU) should start with a report of success - otherwise Merz's cabinet reshuffle will also be in question.

SPD seized the time pressure as an opportunity

The SPD saw this time pressure as an opportunity for itself. It has softened the harshest austerity proposals that were still in the old law. This applies, for example, to cuts in care allowances or for residents of nursing homes. And it has forced the Union to at least examine whether a financial equalization between private and statutory nursing care insurance is possible and sensible.

The SPD has been calling for this kind of care solidarity for a long time, especially with the argument that private health insurance companies have a significantly smaller customer base that requires care. Private providers are allowed to reject applications for admission from applicants with previous illnesses; Statutory health insurance companies cannot do this. It was previously unthinkable for the CDU that this could be a problem in the system.

So the SPD has scored points in the last few days. She benefits from the fact that the Chancellor appears weak and desperately needs news of success. In addition, after the state elections, Merz himself announced, as a learning effect from the election campaigns, that the "coexistence of private and statutory nursing care insurance is causing a significant problem in the population's sense of justice." “We have to change something about it.”

After this care negotiation marathon, one can say: The Chancellor has opened the door - and now the Union can watch as the SPD also wants to go through.

Income and expenses still do not match

However, both sides still have a problem: the draft that is now available places a greater burden on those insured without children and on high earners. The income from nursing care insurance is therefore increased. At the same time, the following applies to the expenditure side: The billions that are now being saved are still not enough to close the existing financing gap in the nursing care funds. Income and expenses still do not match. Further steps must follow.

A new commission should now develop proposals for this. The task for the commission members: They should not present a “Bible” with a draft reform, rigid and inflexible. Instead, black and red would like to have a “menu” from which points can be selected, according to coalition circles. There could then also be various models for how privately insured people should make up for the hole in social long-term care insurance.

The coalition ultimately wants to present a structural reform based on these proposals. July 2027 is the new target date. The much-heralded reform, it seems, has been postponed for now. This autumn is more of an autumn of austerity packages.