The political fringes are gaining, the former popular parties are losing support: That is the central message of a new representative survey by the Trend Research Institute on behalf of Radio Hamburg. If there were a general election in the Hanseatic city next Sunday, the AfD would double its result compared to the 2025 election and reach 14 percent. The Left also made significant gains, reaching 15 percent. In fact, Hamburg will not elect a new citizenry until the first quarter of 2030.
The SPD would remain the strongest force despite noticeable losses. Mayor Peter Tschentscher's party got 29 percent in the survey, losing five percentage points compared to the general election in March 2025. The Greens lost one point and were at 18 percent. Together, both parties would continue to have a parliamentary majority.
One of the biggest losers is the CDU, which is hoping to participate in government and is currently the second strongest faction. The poor national trend is also evident on the Elbe: the Christian Democrats fell to twelve percent, losing seven percentage points compared to the last general election. This means they are only in fifth place behind the SPD, the Greens, the Left and the AfD.
The gains made by the AfD are particularly striking. The party achieved at least 14 percent approval in almost all age groups, only among those under 30 did it remain below that at nine percent. Contrary to what is often assumed, there are hardly any differences between the genders: According to the survey, 14 percent of women and men would vote for AfD.
The left also benefits from the development. She achieves particularly strong results among younger voters. Among 16 to 29 year olds it is 27 percent and among 30 to 39 year olds it is 26 percent. In addition, it is supported significantly more often by women than by men.
The survey sparked discussion on the sidelines of the town hall meeting on Wednesday and was published immediately after a CDU state party conference on Tuesday evening, at which the Hamburg Christian Democrats discussed their party's crisis and how to deal with the successes of the AfD and the Left. CDU state leader Dennis Thering described the recent election results for the Union in several federal states as an expression of a “deep crisis of trust in our political system”. The main reason for this is the dissatisfaction of many citizens with the work of the black-red federal government.
Thering called on the CDU to assume its role in Berlin more confidently. The Union and the SPD share responsibility, but the CDU is the larger coalition partner and must make its political signature visible again. Politics should not be based solely on surveys, but must solve problems. “Don’t talk, don’t postpone, don’t argue, just act,” said the Hamburg CDU leader at the party conference.
At the same time, Thering was unusually open in his criticism of the federal party's appearance. More empathy for the concerns of citizens is needed. “What is not helpful at all are any beach chairs on roof terraces in the Chancellery,” he said, referring to the nationwide discussed action by Chancellor Minister Philipp Amthor. In the debate about the AfD, Thering reiterated his rejection of cooperation. This rejection was “not for any tactical reasons, but solely because of the content”. CDU General Secretary Franziska Hoppermann also referred to the party's decision to be incompatible with the AfD and the Left.
The SPD nevertheless attacked these positions on Wednesday. Party leader Dirk Kienscherf explained that the AfD is “no longer about individual political positions that can be argued about.” The party has become more radicalized over the years. Anyone who reduces the differentiation from the AfD to individual content is ignoring the real problem. The CDU must “finally take responsibility in dealing with the AfD”. At the same time, Kienscherf called for the conditions for a possible AfD ban to be carefully examined.
The survey paints a contradictory picture for Hamburg politics: Although the red-green government majority remains stable, at the same time the AfD and the Left are benefiting significantly from the dissatisfaction of many voters. The CDU, in turn, faces the challenge of emerging from its weak phase and regaining lost trust. The numbers also confirm a trend that has recently become visible in several state elections in other federal states.
For the survey, Trend Research surveyed 975 eligible voters in Hamburg between September 22nd and 27th. The statistical margin of error is a maximum of three percentage points.
