Climate summit in Antalya: A premiere and a lot of potential for conflict

This time they made it in time: Unlike a year ago in Belém, Brazil, when workers were still sawing and hammering on the conference grounds on the opening day, the country pavilions and delegation offices are ready at the Expo Center in Antalya.

For at least two weeks, delegates from over 190 countries will discuss progress in international climate protection. With more than 60,000 participants, it could be the second largest climate summit after Dubai 2023.

Presidency credibility problem

For the first time, the conference will be chaired by a dual presidency: Turkey is the formal host and Australia is leading the negotiations. The aim is for two countries to advance the global phase-out of the use of coal, oil and gas, which themselves depend heavily on fossil fuels. In Turkey, coal is the most important energy source in electricity generation, accounting for one third. Australia is one of the largest coal exporting countries.

Every vote counts

How closely and trustingly the two countries at the top work together could determine the success of the summit. Because the summit presidency sets the direction - and gives those involved the feeling of being in control. She lets everyone have a say and ends the discussion at the right moment in order to present compromise texts.

At the end, the draft final declaration will only go through if none of the participating states raises objections in the plenary session. The voice of the world's largest climate polluter, China, counts just as much as that of the small Pacific state of Tuvalu.

Will the exit become more concrete?

Eleven years after the groundbreaking Paris Agreement was concluded, the issue in Antalya is how the states will specifically implement the internationally binding resolutions of 2015. Among other things, they must begin to sharpen their national climate protection plans before the next interim assessment takes place in two years.

The world is currently not heading towards a warming of 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era, as decided in Paris, but rather towards 2.8 degrees, according to the UN Environmental Program.

In Dubai three years ago, the global community decided to "transition away from fossil fuels", but did not become more specific under pressure from oil states. Brazil has launched a voluntary phase-out roadmap supported by more than a hundred countries.

The topic is not officially on the agenda in Antalya but could still be extremely important.

More renewable electricity in the mix?

The Turkish presidency is proposing to increase the share of electricity in global energy consumption that reaches companies and households from just over 20 percent to 35 percent by 2035. The initiative could be a way to bring countries on board that are having difficulty formally moving away from fossil fuels.

In order for this to benefit the climate, the electricity must of course be generated from sun, wind, water or biomass. An alliance of progressive states could also agree on this outside of the official conference resolutions. The federal government is behind the initiative.

Another argument about money

The dispute over money also plays a central role at this climate summit: countries in the global south are calling on industrialized countries, which are primarily responsible for climate change, to keep their financial commitments. The goal: to provide $300 billion annually by 2035 and to triple the amount to help developing countries adapt to the consequences of the climate crisis - by building dams, fortifying houses or changing their agriculture.

According to development organizations, the summit should formulate clear interim goals on how the agreed sums can be achieved. It is also important how much of it flows as public subsidies and how much as loans that have to be repaid. The German public contribution to international climate financing fell from 6.1 billion euros in 2024 to 4.7 billion euros last year.

Return flight unclear, end open

Germany is traditionally considered a generous donor and bridge builder at climate summits. However, environmental organizations criticize that the federal government is slacking off on climate protection at home and will miss its self-imposed goals.

Federal Environment Minister Carsten Schneider (SPD) is arriving as usual at the beginning of the crucial second week of negotiations. According to his own statements, he remains flexible about the return date - after all, UN climate summits almost always last longer than planned.