The climate crisis is worsening - but the world is distracted by wars and conflicts. The World Climate Conference in Antalya will show whether the states will still switch to emergency mode.
The consequences of the climate crisis have also become more noticeable in Germany. This year, the enormous drought also caused problems for many regions, such as here on Lake Constance. Photo: Marius Bulling/onw-images/dpa
Antalya. Unprecedented forest fires in Europe, deadly heat and drought even in Germany, flash floods in Nepal and China: the climate crisis has been more threatening this year than ever before. Now the annual major crisis meeting is coming up – the 31st UN World Climate Conference. Tens of thousands of delegates will meet in Antalya, Turkey, for two weeks, starting on Monday (November 9th).
What is it about – and does it bring anything else?
In short, it is about putting a stop to the destructive crisis. The Paris Climate Agreement has been in force for ten years. In it, around 200 countries agreed to stop global warming at 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times in order to avert the most catastrophic consequences. Instead, the current forecast from the United Nations says: With current climate policy, the world is heading for 2.8 degrees by the end of the century.
The world is “on a path to an uncontrollable future,” says Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. However, there is still a window to get back to a reasonably safe path.
So will things be turned around now?
So far, the world is still fueling the problem: emissions of climate-damaging greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide have recently increased even further instead of falling. Climate researcher Niklas Höhne from the NewClimate Institute emphasizes that switching to an emergency mode would actually be appropriate. “This year we have once again seen very clearly that climate change really threatens our existence if we don’t do something quickly.” In such an emergency mode, you have to do what didn't seem possible before - for example, stop investing in fossil energies such as oil, gas and coal. “But the world is just not in a mood for exactly that reaction.”
In times of tight state coffers and democracies under pressure, many governments withhold attention and financial resources, explains Laura Schäfer from the organization Germanwatch. “The damage is increasing while the resources to deal with it are decreasing.”
So what would be a success?
Given the many wars, it is not a given that almost all states – with the exception of the USA, which withdrew from the Paris Agreement under President Donald Trump – still meet at all.
Climate researcher Höhne expects rather small steps: “That you can send a signal that the world – or at least a large part of the world – is on the way out of coal, oil and gas and into renewable energies, into electrification, and help each other in the process.”
The head of Greenpeace Germany, Martin Kaiser, also hopes for a “strong alliance of countries that will resolutely push ahead with the exit from coal, oil and gas” – and that should not remain a “paper tiger”.
What does Turkey want as host?
Turkey has proposed setting a new global target for electrification: by 2035, the share of electrical energy used by end consumers should increase from today's 20 to 35 percent. Electrification is intended to replace fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal with electricity. Germany supports this initiative. However, critics point out that the whole thing only helps climate protection if the electricity comes from renewable sources such as wind, sun or hydropower.
Türkiye and Australia are steering COP31 together – can it work?
There was a long wrangling at the last climate conference in Brazil about who would be allowed to host this year. Finally, rivals Türkiye and Australia agreed to a compromise: Turkey will host the meeting and provide the COP president, Environment Minister Murat Kurum. To this end, Australia is sending Climate Minister Chris Bowen, the “President of the Negotiations”, who will, in effect, sound out compromise lines in the engine room of COP31 and initiate final texts that are capable of reaching a consensus. This dichotomy is new and unusual. Skeptics fear frictional losses and point out that individual initiatives were obviously not coordinated during the preparation.
Activists are also concerned about the political climate in authoritarian Türkiye. According to Amnesty International, the human rights crisis has worsened in recent months. There have been significantly more intense government reprisals against independent voices, including journalists, environmental activists and members of the LGBTIQ community.
How is Germany doing?
The federal government is not on track when it comes to climate protection. According to the independent expert council for climate issues, Germany will miss its goals - namely a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 65 percent by 2030 and by 88 percent by 2040 compared to the base year 1990.
This means that Germany, which has long seen itself as a pioneer in climate protection, has a credibility problem from the perspective of environmental associations. This is made worse by recent cuts in funds for poor countries so that they can protect the climate and arm themselves against the effects of the climate crisis and repair damage. Germany has promised to provide six billion euros annually to the Global South, but last year it was only 4.7 billion euros, according to Bread for the World calculations.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) will be missing from the climate conference, where dozens of heads of state and government will be arriving next week. The reason is “other obligations,” as a government spokesman vaguely explained. Climate activists speak of breaking a taboo. Merz is letting the youth down, complained Luisa Neubauer from Fridays for Future. Your movement is planning a nationwide climate strike in 70 locations at halftime of the conference on November 13th.
Which countries are worth paying attention to?
China is a crucial player as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. The energy-hungry People's Republic is pushing ahead with the expansion of renewable energies like no other country. But at the same time, the government in Beijing is relying on coal as a cheap and predictable energy source.
Shortly before the summit began, China's Vice Environment Minister Li Gao criticized the "old problem" of a lack of financial support and inadequate emissions reductions in industrialized countries. Although China is the world's second-largest economy, it still has developing country status under decades-old UN rules.
Another thing to keep an eye on at every climate conference is Saudi Arabia, which has repeatedly prevented ambitious resolutions in the past.
Are there also bright spots?
While there are political problems, the market is – at least partially – developing in the right direction. "The world markets are now overtaking politics. More and more people are relying on electric cars and heat pumps. Renewable energies are growing faster worldwide than any other form of energy," explains Kaiser from Greenpeace. Wind and solar are often the most cost-effective options - which means that even in the USA there is further expansion.
Observers also expect that the Democrats' victory in the midterm elections in the USA could develop a positive, hopeful dynamic.
Long-time climate summit observer Höhne reports: "I've been here for a very long time now, and the steps from year to year are extremely small. I'm very frustrated, I have to admit that. But if you have this view over a longer period of time, then you notice: Something is moving in the right direction. It's much, much too slow, but it's moving - and you have to hold on to that a little bit."
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