
AI-generated summary
The EU has maintained a sanctions regime against Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which includes the freezing of assets and bans on entry into its territory. These measures must be renewed every six months, although it was recently agreed to extend the period to 36 months to avoid periodic crises.
The European Union has saved its sanctions against Moscow in extremis by giving in, reluctantly and despite criticism from kyiv, to the demands of France and Luxembourg, which have achieved the removal of two oligarchs from this black list.
After an authentic psychodrama and just hours before the deadline, the representatives of the 27 extended the EU sanctions against nearly 3,000 people and entities accused of supporting the Russian war effort against Ukraine. However, two oligarchs will be exempt from them: Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman.
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Andrii Ivanovych Sybiha, has described the decision as "shameful and unjustifiable."
In the absence of an agreement before midnight, all sanctions risked being void. In this tense context, the demand raised by France to cross Usmanov off the list – despite his closeness to the Kremlin – surprised its partners in Brussels even more. Following in the footsteps of Paris, Luxembourg for its part demanded the exclusion of Fridman.
The latter initiated an arbitration procedure to claim 15 billion euros in compensation from the Grand Duchy as a result of said EU sanctions.
Although an agreement in principle had been reached on Monday, Latvia, two weeks before holding legislative elections, called everything into question. "Latvia cannot accept such a proposal," Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs wrote on the night of Monday to Tuesday via the social network X.
Another negotiation allowed Riga to be convinced to abstain so as not to block the renewal of the sanctions regime, the main pressure tool available to Europeans against the Kremlin.
A dangerous precedent
"It was not a choice between a good solution and a bad solution, but between a bad one and a much worse one," Kulbergs later justified.
Ukraine and several EU member states had used all their diplomatic weight, aligning themselves with Riga, to try to prevent the exclusion of both oligarchs, considering it a dangerous precedent and a wrong signal directed to Moscow.
In fact, the Kremlin has demanded the lifting of European sanctions on "all Russian businessmen." "The world does not need lifting of sanctions motivated by political calculations," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
For her part, the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, had urged the 27 to preserve the sanctions regime, the central axis of community policy to pressure Moscow.
These measures consist of the freezing of assets and the prohibition of entry into the territory of the 27 member countries. As a result, around €28 billion in assets are frozen within the EU. Regarding Usmanov, Paris cited "national security reasons" to its community partners without providing further explanations, according to several European diplomats.
According to a diplomat in Brussels, Paris is putting pressure on a prisoner release agreement involving French citizens detained in Azerbaijan. "This really sends the message that it is possible to get yourself removed from the list through blackmail," another European diplomat said.
Alisher Usmanov, a Russian businessman of Uzbek origin, made his fortune in mining and metallurgy and later in the Russian internet group Mail.Ru, in addition to having been one of the main shareholders of the English football club Arsenal.
Mijaíl Fridman is, for his part, one of the majority shareholders of the Alfa Group conglomerate, which includes Alfa Bank, one of the largest banking entities in Russia, also subject to community sanctions.
This sanctioning regime against Moscow must be extended every six months, although the 27 have agreed to extend this period to 36 months to avoid new moments of diplomatic tension.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The decision to exclude Usmanov and Fridman will be used by Moscow as an argument to demand the complete lifting of sanctions against Russian businessmen.
Likely · Within months
Latvia could maintain its critical stance in future sanctions discussions, especially close to its legislative elections.
Possible · Within months

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