Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tie in second round according to Datafolha, with crisis in the STF influencing campaign

President Lula's (PT) campaign admitted this Thursday (3) that the race against Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) for the Presidency of the Republic is undefined, after the Datafolha survey showed a technical tie between the two candidates in a second round.

Aides to the Bolsonaro senator, in turn, say that the scenario is about to change and see in the crisis that the STF (Supreme Federal Court) is experiencing an additional ingredient to wear down Lula, associate him with Alexandre de Moraes and mobilize the electorate.

In the second round, the president numerically surpasses the son of his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro (PL) by 46% to 44%, a technical tie due to the survey's margin of error, plus or minus two points. In the second round scenario two weeks ago, Lula had 47%, compared to Flávio's 43%.

In the first round, Lula scored 38%, followed by Flávio with 33% and Augusto Cury (Avante), who rose six points and reached 8%.

PT supporters point to the delay in distributing campaign material and the government's poor evaluation as problems — the survey showed a 42% negative evaluation, compared to 31% approval. One of them adds that there has not yet been enough time for the television campaign to have an effect, and hopes for a better result from next week.

Three members of Lula's campaign claim that the tight result was already expected and highlight, among the causes, the leaks from the investigations carried out by his eldest son, Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, who became known as Lulinha, who was being investigated on suspicion of influence peddling.

Internal research carried out by the party also pointed to Cury's growth. The increase of 8 percentage points, however, is attributed to a capture of voters less loyal to Flávio. Despite the performance of the Avante candidate, who defeated Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Cury would not have enough resilience to reach the second round.

The survey interviewed 2,002 voters in 125 cities on Tuesday (1st) and Wednesday (2nd), a period in which new conversations between Moraes and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, from Banco Master, came to light.

The PT campaign considers the episode as harmful and seeks to step aside —Lula even recorded a video charging the STF and the PGR (Attorney General's Office) this Thursday and defending that all suspects be investigated.

Members of Flávio's campaign also share the assessment that the moment favors the senator and is critical for Lula. They hope that the polls will indicate a numerical turnaround for the PL candidate from the September 7th holiday, when there will be an act against the PT member and against Moraes on Avenida Paulista, in São Paulo.

During a live broadcast on social media this Thursday, Flávio commented on the crisis involving the STF and said that the act could cause a turning point because Brasília fears mobilizations.

"If there's one thing Brasília fears, it's street mobilization, it's the people. It's their dissatisfaction on the streets," he said. "It's the day we're going to decide if we're going to make a push to actually seek freedom in our country or if we're going to be left to this sea of ​​mud that everyone is seeing is happening here in Brasília."

Some of the senator's aides say they believe that the positive outlook for Flávio is the result of a series of recent factors, including the deterioration of the Lulinha case for the president and the scandal between Moraes and Vorcaro.

Others have a divergent view and attribute Flávio's possible turnaround to the general context of the Lula government's poor evaluation — that is, to issues such as the high cost of living and the population's indebtedness.

Flávio's allies also minimize Cury's growth. They claim, behind the scenes, that this is an insubstantial increase, forged in a performance with robots and influencers on social networks, which the Avante candidate denies.

Publicly, however, the advice is not to attack the opponent for two reasons. Flávio's team claims that Cury does not harm the senator as it grows from undecided votes, previously distributed between Renan Santos (Mission), Romeu Zema (Novo) and Caiado.

Furthermore, the Avante candidate reduces the ceiling of votes that Lula could reach in the first round and is seen as a reserve of right-wing votes for the second round. Flávio's interlocutors say that, in the second stage of the dispute, it is the senator who should inherit the majority of the writer's voters.