Budget maneuver: tight timetable between Parliament and the EU to activate the flexibility clause

With the Public Finance Policy Document (DPFP), the government has established the macroeconomic framework. Now the maneuver enters the measurement phase, with a tight timetable played out on two tables. The first is the parliamentary one: the budget law will arrive in the Chambers in the second half of October and the examination will take November and December. The second is the European one, where Italy seeks additional margins for energy and defense.

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The first appointment is October 9th, with Ecofin in Luxembourg. The government has decided to follow up on the request sent to Brussels to activate the flexibility clause, despite the failure to exit the excessive deficit procedure. The Commission will have to verify, as stated in the Dpfp, that "exceptional circumstances exist" and measure the impact on the accounts. It will also have to ascertain, with a debt sustainability analysis, its compatibility with medium-term fiscal stability. On the ministers' table there is also the request for further margin for the effect of inflation on net spending, advanced by Rome and other countries.

The government must send the Budget Plan (Dpb) to the Commission by 15 October. It is a more streamlined version of the Dpfp which, in addition to the objectives, contains the structure of the maneuver and the financial weight of the main measures. On the same days, 15 and 16 October, the flexibility dossier will rise to the leaders' level: at the European Council in Brussels a group of heads of government, including Giorgia Meloni, should relaunch the request.

By 20 October it is up to the Council of Ministers to approve the budget bill and send it to the Chambers, starting the budget session. The deadline is indicative: several days often pass between the green light from Palazzo Chigi and the arrival of the text in Parliament. On 21 October Eurostat will notify the data on the deficit based on the Istat communication. Based on those numbers, the Commission formally evaluates the exit from the procedure.

In November the European match enters the decisive phase. On the 9th the Italian request to activate the clause returns to Ecofin, after the Commission's proposal, and the Council must adopt the specific recommendation by a qualified majority. On the 17th, Brussels will publish its autumn forecasts on growth and public finances in the euro area. On the 24th, as part of the European semester, the opinions on the budget documents of the single currency countries, including Italy, will arrive.