January Salary Update Expectations and Inflation Difference for Civil Servants and Retirees

While each update period carries the hope of solving the financial difficulties for citizens with fixed income, the economic realities on the field and the fire in the kitchen do not always coincide with the formulas talked about in the Ankara backstage.

While the damage of inflation deepens day by day, the biggest nightmare of civil servants and retirees is to be faced with a salary update even below the official inflation announced by TÜİK due to the collective bargaining mechanism.

Stating that civil servants and retirees received updates below the official inflation rate for three consecutive periods in the previous collective bargaining period, Social Security Expert İsa Karakaş explained the situation with the following words:

Painful Recipe for July 2026: Although the 6-month cumulative inflation total was 17.76 percent in July, an update of 13.52 percent was made for civil servants and retirees. In other words, a 'minus update' that was 4.24 percent below even the official inflation was deemed necessary.

Reminding our ancestors of the saying "He carries his spoon in his pocket when he goes to eat Ashura", Karakaş emphasized that the current collective bargaining mechanism takes away the spoon of retired civil servants before they even sit down at the table.

FIRST 2 MONTHS INFLATION DATA AND YEAR-END EXPECTATIONS

According to July (1.78 percent) and August (1.84 percent) 2026 data announced by TUIK, the 2-month cumulative total was 3.65 percent.

In order to create an inflation difference for civil servants and retirees, this rate must exceed the 7 percent collective agreement threshold in July. Since the figure remains below 7 percent, although there is no increase due to the inflation difference for now, the 5 percent collective agreement update is guaranteed.

While the inflation targets have been updated upwards in the Government's Medium Term Program (MTP) and the revised figures of the Central Bank, it is highly likely that the year-end inflation will be around 30 percent.

Sharing his end-of-year expectations, Karakaş said, "Psychological Limit: The 30 percent figure is a critical test for the government. My personal expectation is that the year-end inflation will remain around 29.99 percent at most. It is also possible to exceed this limit depending on the fluctuations in energy prices due to the effects of wars." he said.

WHAT WILL BE THE LEGAL UPDATE RATES IN JANUARY?

If the year-end inflation is around 30 percent, an increase of 9.5 percent to 10.5 percent (average 10 percent) for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees and 7.5 percent to 8.5 percent (average 8 percent) for retired civil servants and civil servants is expected, according to the legal updates to be shaped in January.

THE WIND OF RAISE AND WELFARE SHARE SHIPPING IN THE BACKGROUNDS OF ANKARA

Stating that mathematics has a single language and that the 4.24 percent loss in July shows that civil servants and retirees are crushed by official inflation, Karakaş stated that this situation is irreversible, especially for retired civil servants.

Stating that if the promise of the Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mr. Mehmet Şimşek, "There will be no raise below the inflation rate" is fulfilled, civil servants and retirees will receive the same rate of update as SSK and Bağ-Kur employees in January, Karakaş noted that in this case, the salary update will be around 10 percent instead of 8 percent, with an additional 2 points increase.

Karakaş also stated that calling this a "raise" would be unfair to civil servants and retirees unless a clear improvement is made above inflation.

Karakaş stated that working people and retirees, whose belts have been tightened for 3 years, have no choice, and that party organizations and MPs are constantly presenting this situation to the government, and asked in the backstage, "If not now, when?" He stated that the question was voiced loudly and that this January was a vital turning point for retired civil servants who had not been given a progressive raise for 3 years.