Seven German candidacies have failed since Munich 1972, so now the eighth attempt should work. Very often, those in charge in Germany misjudged their chances. This time too they are considered to be rather manageable; Even if they are certainly better with Munich than they would have been with “KölnRheinRuhr”. German sport and Munich, as a candidate for the 2036, 2040 and 2044 Summer Games, are drawn into a rather disorderly and inscrutable competition in which - as is so often the case when awarding major sporting events - various strands of sports and geopolitics intersect.
There was once a time in the International Olympic Committee (IOC) when the awarding of the Olympic Games was carried out reliably - and not just because almost every award was accompanied by a bunch of disreputable events. The schedule and specific processes were clear: interested cities could submit their candidacies nine years before the announced date, then an evaluation commission examined the applications, and around 100 IOC members voted seven years beforehand.
Then in 2013 the reign of Thomas Bach began at the IOC. From then on, the German business lawyer designed everything the way it suited him, to say the least. Sometimes two games were awarded at once (2024 Paris/2028 Los Angeles), sometimes eleven instead of seven years earlier (Brisbane 2032), sometimes six (France 2030), sometimes even with reservations (Salt Lake City 2034). Above all, the IOC members could no longer freely choose between several candidates, but could only approve what Bach's closest crew - pardon, an IOC commission that worked according to strict criteria - had come up with.
Bach has been the IOC honorary president since last year and Kirsty Coventry, who he supports, is the new head of the ring circle. And even if IOC lobbyists pretend that everything is going on in an orderly and transparent manner, hardly anyone can currently reliably say what will happen next with the Olympic award. The first formal stage is the so-called “continuous dialogue”, which means nothing other than the IOC holding loose discussions with interested parties. There are applications with completely different levels of expansion: India, Qatar with Doha, Chile's capital Santiago, Budapest - and now Germany with Munich.
At least a concrete timeline is now emerging for the awarding of the Summer Games in 2036. In 2027, the IOC will start a newly created “strategic dialogue”, i.e. a kind of preliminary determination of which candidates they would like to discuss in more detail with. It is possible that the award will be narrowed down to a specific market or region the following year, and the award will then be made in 2029 - although it was unclear until recently at what point the IOC members would be involved and how exactly. It is clear that they are pushing for more say than under Bach. And that in turn influences the chances of individual applicants.
For a long time, two countries were considered particularly promising for 2036: India and Qatar, both of which are extremely well connected in international sports policy. However, India has tended to fall behind because, although it is being pushed by the financially strong Ambani clan and can attract games in the world's largest democracy, the planning is not yet as advanced and reliable as the IOC had hoped. Qatar, on the other hand, is worried about the war situation in the Near and Middle East.
On the other hand, the situation could look completely different if the free program takes place in 2029. At the same time, Qatar has opponents in the Arab world. The equally influential Saudi Arabia would not allow the small emirate to be the first Arab Olympic host after the first Arab World Cup in Qatar. However, Saudi Arabia's sports projects have cooled off recently; The involvement on the golfers' LIV tour ended just as abruptly as the hosting of the Asian Winter Games or the newly introduced Olympic e-sports games.
Against this background, the scenario has recently been increasingly circulating as to whether it might be Europe's turn as early as 2036. On the one hand that would be a good message for Germany, on the other hand it would not be. In any case, the competition is strong; Budapest and Istanbul have been in the running for a long time, and there are also signals from London. This would add the special 2036 argument: Could Germany really be the suitable host 100 years after the Nazi propaganda games?
Even Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who picked the winner's name from the envelope on Saturday, opposed it last February (before he changed his mind). If the games go to Europe in 2036, they would certainly move on to other continents in 2040 and 2044. The DOSB is currently saying that the German bid for a European duel around 2036 will be over even in the event of defeat - although such attitudes have often changed.
In this respect, from a German perspective, it might be better if the 2036 Games took place somewhere else. Then Europe would be an issue for 2040 and 2044, possibly even in the form of a double award in 2029; Tax money would also be tapped over the years. As much as Europe may be falling behind globally, it is difficult to imagine that the IOC will hold the Summer Games outside of the former core market for 20 years after Paris 2024. But Germany would still have strong competition, see above.
But in addition to all these arguments, there is another important point: the role of the former IOC President Thomas Bach. The fact that Germany hasn't had any games for so long is also and especially due to him. Bach may have been the leading German sports politician, but at crucial points his interest in his own advancement clearly took precedence over that of a German bid for the Olympics. So Munich was forced into a hopeless undertaking for the 2018 Winter Games, even though these had long been promised to Pyeongchang. In return, a presumably more promising candidacy for the 2020 Summer Games was forgone. Purely by chance, the election for the 2020 Games took place at the same session as the IOC presidential election for the post-Jacques Rogge period: in autumn 2013 in Buenos Aires. A German double victory, IOC presidency and the Olympics was considered impossible.
On top of that, Thomas Bach - who was present when the winner was announced in Baden-Baden on Saturday - is largely responsible for the fact that the Olympic movement enjoys a bad reputation in Germany. Many sports-political scandals occurred during his time, especially his gentle approach to Russia in the state doping affair. Significantly, during his time as IOC President, the referendums in Germany failed (Munich 2022, Hamburg 2024). This time at least Munich and “KölnRheinRuhr” got through.
At the same time, the IOC functions according to its own laws, with dependencies and sports policy swaps over the years. Even if Coventry softens Bach's line of complete lack of transparency in awarding - although it remains to be seen whether this will happen in key areas - Bach will still have great influence. Coventry is his pupil; around three quarters of the current members moved to the IOC under him. And there is definitely a historical parallel.
Bach's own sports policy foster father, Juan Antonio Samaranch senior, asked some IOC members for individual discussions again at the session in Guatemala in 2007, six years after his departure - and urged them to vote for Sochi to host the 2014 Winter Games. They became the deciding votes. On Saturday in Baden-Baden, when asked whether he was committed to Germany, Thomas Bach said with a slight smile: “Good question.” But as an active IOC President, he has always said what sympathy he has for a German application.
