Datafolha research shows technical tie between Raquel Lyra and João Campos in the first round of elections in Pernambuco

On the eve of the first round of elections, governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) has 49% of valid voting intentions compared to 48% for former mayor of Recife João Campos (PSB), in the dispute for the Government of Pernambuco, according to a Datafolha survey released this Saturday (3).

The scenario is a technical tie between the two main candidates. The margin of error for the total survey sample is two percentage points, plus or minus.

To calculate valid votes, blank votes, invalid votes and voters who declare themselves undecided are excluded. The procedure is comparable to that used by the Electoral Court to count and publish the official election results.

Candidates Ivan Moraes (PSOL) and Renan Hallais (Missão) scored 1% each. Professor Camila (UP), Guilherme Fonseca (PSTU) and Victor Assis (PCO) did not score.

1,650 voters aged 16 or over were interviewed in Pernambuco on the 2nd and 3rd of October. The survey was contracted by Folha and TV Globo, and is registered with the Electoral Court under number PE-02404/2026.

In total votes, Raquel Lyra has 46% and João Campos, 45%. Another 4% of voters said they voted blank, null or none of the names, while 3% of those interviewed did not know how to answer.

Ivan Moraes and Renan Hallais have 1% each. Professor Camila, Guilherme Fonseca and Victor Assis did not score.

Datafolha also tested the scenario of a possible second round between Raquel Lyra and João Campos. The governor scored 48% of voting intentions, compared to 47% for the former mayor of Recife. Whites and nulls accounted for 3% and undecideds accounted for 2%.

In the spontaneous survey, in which the names of possible candidates are not presented, Raquel is mentioned by 40%, and Campos, by 36%. Another 14% were unable to indicate a candidate and 3% said they would vote blank, null or no name.

1% mentioned Ivan Moraes and 1% mentioned former governor Eduardo Campos, who died in 2014 and father of João Campos. While 5% gave other answers.

Datafolha also asked questions about the TV Globo debate. In total, 24% of voters said they had watched or listened to the debate in part, 10% said they had watched it in full and 66% said they had not seen it.

Asked about the candidates' performance, 30% of voters said that João Campos did better, while 24% said that Raquel Lyra was superior. Ivan Moraes and Renan Hallais were mentioned by 1% of voters each.

Another 1% said everyone did well and 3% said none of the candidates did well, while 41% said they didn't know.

The research indicates a fierce dispute between Raquel Lyra and João Campos. In the last round of Datafolha, released on October 1st, the governor had 46% of voting intentions, against 44% for the former mayor of Recife in the first round. Considering only valid votes, she scored 50%, against his 47%.

In the first semester, João Campos led in voting intention polls; the governor took the lead in the Datafolha survey released on July 31st. In recent surveys, however, the scenario has been a technical draw.

Raquel adopted a position of neutrality in relation to the presidential election, seeking votes both among Lula's allies (PT) and among supporters of senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).

João Campos, in turn, has President Lula as his main electoral leader in the state. The former mayor has also reinforced references to his father, former governor Eduardo Campos, who led the state between 2007 and 2014.