The 2nd Quaest survey, released last Friday (25), on voting intentions for senator from Mato Grosso do Sul, provided an overview of voters' level of knowledge, voting potential and rejection of candidates competing for the two seats.
In the scenario stimulated by the Senate, Capitão Contar (PL) has 23%, Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) 22%, Soraya (PSB) 10% and Vander Loubet (PT) 8%. In the rejection of candidates for the Senate, Soraya has 38%, Vander Loubet 37%, Reinaldo Azambuja 32% and Capitão Contar 23%.
🔎 In Quaest's spontaneous survey, the names are not shown to the voters interviewed. In the stimulated survey, the list of candidates is shown, and each interviewee needs to answer twice for who they intend to vote for: for the first vacancy and, then, for the second vacancy.
In 2026, two senators will be elected in each state and in the Federal District, to renew 54 of the 81 seats. Therefore, each voter must vote for two different candidates. You cannot choose the same name twice.
The results of the survey for the Senate consider the mentions for the first and second vacancies in a total that adds up to 100% of voting intentions and maintains the proportion between candidates, blanks/nulls and undecided candidates.
The research was commissioned by TV Morena. Quaest interviewed 804 people aged 16 and over between the 21st and 24th of September. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The TSE registration number is MS-09580/2026 and BR-04113/2026.
From left to right, Capitão Contar, Reinaldo Azambuja, Soraya and Vander Loubet. — Photo: Reproduction.
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Check out the strata of the Senate survey below:
Knowledge, voting potential and rejection of Senatorial Candidates
Reinaldo Azambuja (PL): 54% potential vote, 32% rejection and 14% do not know him.
Captain Contar (PL): 49% potential, 23% rejection and 28% don't know it.
Soraya (PSB): 23% potential, 38% rejection and 39% don't know her.
Vander Loubet (PT): 23% potential, 37% rejection and 40% don't know it.
Roberto Oshiro (NEW): 9% potential, 11% rejection and 80% don't know him.
Beto do Movimento (PSOL): 7% potential, 17% rejection and 76% don't know it.
The other candidates are unknown to more than 85% of voters in Mato Grosso do Sul.
Is the vote choice for senator final?
*Only candidates with 5% or more in the stimulated voting intention.
Captain Contar (PL): 71% is definitive (it was 50% on August 25); 29% can change (was 50%).
Reinaldo Azambuja (PL): 68% (was 46%); 32% may change (was 54%).
Soraya (PSB): 61% is definitive (was 38%); 38% can change (was 62%).
Vander Loubet (PT): 75% is definitive (was 50%); 23% can change (was 50%).
Spontaneous voting intention for senator
Captain Contar (PL): 11%
Reinaldo Azambuja (PL): 10%
Undecided: 67%
Others: 8%
Blank/null/will not vote: 4%
In the spontaneous scenario for the Senate, when the interviewee does not have access to a list of candidates, on average for the two vacancies, the percentage of undecided voters was 86% in August and is now 67%, in the combination of total votes for the two vacancies.
Below are results that consider only the responses for the first wave and then for the second.
First wave
Captain Contar (PL): 31% (it was 17% on August 25)
Reinaldo Azambuja (PL): 25% (was 31%)
Soraya (PSB): 9% (was 10%)
Vander Loubet (PT): 9% (was 9%)
Roberto Oshiro (NEW): 2% (was 2%)
Beto do Movimento (PSOL): 1% (was 3%)
Daniel Junior (Act): 1% (was 1%)
Valter from Comagran (PRD): 0% (was 1%)
Luiz Lemes (DC): 0% (was 1%)
Valderi Garcia (PCO): 0% (was 0%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 9% (was 9%)
Undecided: 13% (was 16%)
Second wave
Reinaldo Azambuja (PL): 19% (it was 13% on August 25)
Captain Contar (PL): 15% (was 13%)
Soraya (PSB): 11% (was 12%)
Vander Loubet (PT): 6% (was 8%)
Roberto Oshiro (NEW): 3% (was 5%)
Beto do Movimento (PSOL): 3% (was 3%)
Daniel Junior (Act): 1% (was 3%)
Valter from Comagran (PRD): 1% (was 1%)
Luiz Lemes (DC): 1% (was 1%)
Valderi Garcia (PCO): 1% (was 0%)
White/null/will not vote: 16% (was 16%)
Undecided: 23% (was 25%)
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