Swedish election: Social Democrats strongest force, but formation of government unclear

Sweden has voted - but not yet a government. Former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson's Social Democrats are likely to emerge from the parliamentary election as the strongest force, as the electoral authority announced early in the morning after 93 percent of the votes were counted. However, it is still unclear whether Andersson's possible center-left alliance with three other parties can win a majority in parliament.

The Social Democrats' potential government partners also disagree on key points. The conservative head of government Ulf Kristersson therefore still has a chance to stay in power, then in a coalition - among others - with the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats.

Early in the morning, the electoral authority saw Andersson's camp with a narrow majority of 176 of the 349 seats in parliament. Kristersson's conservatives, his two previous coalition partners and the right-wing populists together won 173 seats. Due to the close race, a clear election winner could only be determined on Wednesday, when the last votes from Swedes from abroad and postal votes cast late have been counted.

After 93 percent of the votes were counted, Andersson's Social Democrats received 28.1 percent of the votes - that would be a decrease compared to 2022 (30.33 percent). Kristersson's conservatives followed with 19.9 percent (2022: 19.10 percent). If the result is confirmed, they would have overtaken the right-wing populists again as the second strongest force in parliament after 2022.

Bitter evening for Sweden Democrats

It was a bitter evening for the Sweden Democrats: According to the figures, they got 17.6 percent and will probably have to accept losses in a parliamentary election for the first time ever (2022: 20.54 percent). “We have obviously lost a few percentage points compared to the election results four years ago,” said its boss Jimmie Åkesson. “I still think that we were winners in this election campaign because there are so many people in our country who no longer find it uncomfortable to say that they are Sweden Democrats.”

Four years ago, the taboo was broken in Sweden when the right-wing populists appeared for the first time as a majority procurer for the conservative government of Ulf Kristersson after the 2022 election.

The fact that Andersson - Kristersson's predecessor in office - has a chance of returning to the top government despite the decline for the Social Democrats is due to the gains made by the partner parties. After almost all votes were counted, the Left Party got 8.2 percent, the liberal Center Party got 7.1 percent and the Greens got 6.1 percent. Kristersson's previous partners in the so-called Tidö government, the Christian Democrats and Liberals, won 6.2 and 5.4 percent of the vote.

What does this mean for government formation?

Regardless of which camp ultimately comes out on top, the Swedes will face complicated government negotiations. Observers had already predicted difficult exploratory talks before the election. But hardly anyone expected that it would be so close.

In the opposition camp, the Left and the Center Party in particular are far apart. Before the election, the leader of the Center Party, Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist, told broadcaster SVT that her party would rather accept new elections than a government with the participation of the Left Party. She brought into play an alternative with the Christian Democrats instead of the Left. The left, in turn, is calling for ministerial posts to support Andersson as head of government.

Minority government is not uncommon

On the Kristersson side, continued government would mean greater participation from right-wing populists. The Sweden Democrats had already supported the three-party alliance, which operates in a minority government, but had not filled any ministerial posts. Before the election, Kristersson was very open to the latter. The Sweden Democrats claim a clear right to have a say in migration issues, for example. The party has its roots in the right-wing extremist spectrum of the 1980s.

«They have developed a Swedish way of populism. He is not loud or shouty, but seems more moderate, but remains provocative," said election researcher Torbjörn Sjöström from the Swedish polling institute Novus, according to ARD before the election.

Minority governments are not uncommon in Sweden: anyone who does not have an absolute majority against them in parliament can be elected prime minister. Andersson had announced that he would seek contact with the other party leaders immediately after the election - with the exception of the Sweden Democrats.