Union is losing massive support: AfD reaches historic high

The Union continues to lose favor with voters - and is ten points behind the AfD for the first time. According to a current survey by the Society for Market and Social Research (GMS), the Union only has 20 percent, lower than ever before in this survey.

In contrast, the AfD has a historic record of 30 percent. According to current values, the black-red government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) would no longer have a mathematical majority.

In addition to the coalition, Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) in particular is considered to be ailing. In a current Insa survey, 78 percent of participants answered in the negative to the question “Is Friedrich Merz (still) the right Federal Chancellor?” Only 14 percent answered yes. Eight percent did not provide any information.

Merz is even unpopular among CDU and CSU voters: 58 percent of CDU voters spoke out against him, only 36 percent in favor of him.

Elections will take place in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin on September 20th. The results will also determine the political future of the Chancellor, who is held partly responsible for the election debacle in Saxony-Anhalt. If further serious CDU defeats follow, things could become even more uneasy in the Union.

There has been speculation for weeks about a possible exchange of chancellors. The North Rhine-Westphalia Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst (CDU) and the Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) are considered possible successors to Merz.

Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected.

For the survey, GMS surveyed a total of 1,009 participants online and by telephone from September 9, 2026 to September 14, 2026. The survey was created without a client. The margin of error is around three percentage points.