Election in Saxony-Anhalt: subtle optimism among the state CDU

International media are looking at “Sassonia-Anhalt all urne”. AfD leading candidate Siegmund has already cast his vote. The head of the economists warns against an AfD government.

All developments in the live blog

In addition to our own research, we use material from the news agencies dpa, Reuters, epd, KNA and Bloomberg for our live blog. You can also find all the news, analyzes and background information on the election in Saxony-Anhalt on our topic page.

Important updates

The polling stations are open

Demonstration in Magdeburg – “Willy-Brandt-Platz is full of democrats”

Thousands of people are expected to demonstrate in Magdeburg and Halle

Significantly more attacks on journalists

Schulze: “Don’t build castles in the air”

Delicate optimism from the state CDU

Roman Deininger reports from Magdeburg:

The stage is set for the CDU Saxony-Anhalt in the Maritim Hotel in downtown Magdeburg. The Christian Democrats' "election party" will take place in the Otto von Guericke Hall in the evening - but it is questionable whether the event really deserves to be called a "party". In the polls, the second-placed CDU is almost twenty percentage points behind the first-placed AfD.

And even the greatest optimists in the CDU do not expect that the party will be able to repeat its brilliant leap forward in the 2021 state election campaign: At that time, the CDU, with the popular Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff at the helm, ended up significantly exceeding the polls' forecasts. This time too, the CDU is expecting a strong last-minute mobilization of AfD opponents - but it is said that the Greens and SPD will also benefit from this.

Anyone who listens to the state CDU shortly before the election will still notice a hint of optimism. The CDU strategists believe that the AfD's feared march to an absolute majority of state parliament mandates will probably not happen. In the TV duels, CDU Prime Minister Sven Schulze was able to score points, AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund revealed glaring weaknesses in terms of content. The CDU say that the sad survey situation also has something good: even a result of 25 percent would be perceived as a relative success.

The initial situation

What makes the election in small Saxony-Anhalt so important is obvious: after the votes have been counted, a right-wing extremist party could come to power in a federal state for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany.

A coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP currently governs Magdeburg. However, according to all polls, the coalition will lose its majority. The AfD is likely to be by far the strongest force.

In the last survey before the election, the AfD with top candidate Ulrich Siegmund got 41 percent. Prime Minister Sven Schulze's CDU was at 23 percent in the survey published on Thursday by the Elections Research Group on behalf of ZDF. The Left followed in third place with 11.5 percent, the SPD had 8.5 percent, and the Greens had six percent. The BSW was below the five percent hurdle at four percent and the FDP at three percent.

Possible and impossible alliances

If the AfD does not achieve an absolute majority, it would have to rely on alliance partners to come to government. But: None of the other parties want to form a coalition with her. Siegmund, in turn, recently confirmed that he would only stand for election as head of government if his party won an absolute majority and could govern alone.

If the AfD misses this goal, a CDU-led minority government could come into play. However, this could rely on votes from the left – similar to Saxony and Thuringia. The problem: In a party conference resolution, the CDU rejects a coalition and “similar forms of cooperation” with the Left as well as with the AfD. Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder, of all people, has indirectly questioned the fact that the party should consistently stick to the "firewall" to the left. As he told the Rheinische Post, a “good and constructive government” may require tolerance from parties “that would normally make our hair stand on end.”

The desired scenario of the CDU top candidate Schulze - a majority for the so-called centrist parties, i.e. the CDU, SPD and the Greens - seems very unlikely given the surveys.

Siegmund voted

18 degrees and sunshine - the weather in Tangermünde provided the AfD's top candidate with the right backdrop for his appearance with his Simson and his wife Julia on Sunday morning. The couple drives together to vote.

During the election campaign, Ulrich Siegmund traveled a lot on the AfD blue moped. Descendants of the Jewish founding family Simson are trying to defend themselves against the brand being appropriated by the right-wing extremist party in Saxony-Anhalt.

"Sassonia-Anhalt all urn"

“Here's What To Know About Sunday's Voting,” is how the New York Times titled one of its two articles on the election in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday morning. The second text is a portrait of Ulrich Siegmund, the “Ex-Salesman Bringing the Far Right to the Cusp of Power in Germany”. It is unusual for a state election to generate greater international interest - but the circumstances are special.

The French Le Monde, alluding to a controversial Spiegel title, asks what makes Siegmund the “most dangerous man in Germany”. What is promised is a deeper understanding of the situation “en three minutes”.

Poland's Gazeta Wyborcza writes how the Afd wants to settle accounts with Chancellor “Friedricha Merza”. For the Italian La Repubblica, a reporter from Magdeburg reports on “Sassonia-Anhalt all urne”.

Anna Schimpp

These parties are up for election

In addition to the larger parties such as the CDU, AfD, the Left, SPD, FDP and the Greens, nine others are running, including the BSW, the Free Voters, Volt and the Animal Welfare Party.

According to the polls, the race for the post of Prime Minister will be decided between the incumbent Sven Schulze from the CDU and Ulrich Siegmund from the AfD. The other top candidates are considered to have almost no chance of being elected as head of government.

For the Left, this is parliamentary group leader Eva von Angern, for the SPD, Science Minister and former university rector Armin Willingmann. The Greens have put the trained health and nursing nurse Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz forward. The FDP relies on state leader Lydia Hüskens, the BSW on the duo Thomas Schulze and Claudia Wittig.

Head of the economists warns against the AfD government

Economist Monika Schnitzer warns of the consequences of the AfD taking over government in Saxony-Anhalt. Schnitzer is chairwoman of the Council of Experts for the Assessment of Overall Economic Development - the “Economists” for short - and a professor at the Ludwig Maximilians University in Munich.

“In view of the election program, it is to be expected that if the AfD takes over government, the state would become significantly less attractive as a location for skilled workers and companies,” Schnitzer told the Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger. In other words: Urgently needed skilled workers would be deterred if the party classified as right-wing extremist in Saxony-Anhalt came to power. There was a risk of serious economic consequences. Many workers in the state will retire in the coming years. According to Schnitzer, without immigration from outside there would soon be a shortage of skilled workers. “And without sufficient skilled workers, urgently needed investments will not be made.”

Anna Schimpp

The polling stations are open

Now the following applies: The polling stations in Saxony-Anhalt are open to the almost 1.7 million eligible voters between 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. The postal voting documents can also be submitted to the responsible office until 6 p.m., as the MDR informs.

All Germans aged 18 and over who have had their main residence in Saxony-Anhalt for at least three years are eligible to vote. With the first vote, they elect a candidate within their constituency, meaning 41 people are directly elected to the state parliament. In addition, 42 additional MPs are usually selected via the second vote. However, only those parties that achieve at least five percent of the second vote are taken into account.

In principle, all people have access to the polling stations throughout election day: during the day while voting is being cast and from 6 p.m. when the counting takes place publicly and the electoral board determines the result. That's five to nine citizens that the municipality has appointed from the electoral district.

A singer receives the biggest applause

Luisa Neubauer gives an urgent speech in which she warns of the end of the firewall and for which she repeatedly receives applause from the audience. But the thousands of people only really escalated when the singer Kerstin Ott entered the stage directly after Neubauer. There she performs her big hit: “She always laughs”. The people of Magdeburg, at least the people on Cathedral Square, definitely warmed up afterwards.

The Green Party leader is also on site

Felix Banaszak walks through the crowd of demonstrators on Magdeburg Cathedral Square, stopping briefly at a young man wearing a Green shirt and chatting with him about the last few days of the election campaign. The election in Saxony-Anhalt is also very important for federal politics and its representatives. Behind Banaszak, climate activist Luisa Neubauer takes the stage to begin her speech.

“This is Saxony-Anhalt too” – demo on Cathedral Square begins

Several thousand people have gathered on the cathedral square in Magdeburg, rain clouds are gathering above them, but at the front of the stage the organizers are trying to spread a happy message: Saxony-Anhalt is cosmopolitan and diverse. “This is Saxony-Anhalt too,” says a speaker, and there is much applause from the crowd. According to reports, Prime Minister Sven Schulze from the CDU is also among those present, although he has not yet been spotted. He is not scheduled to appear.

Dominik Fürst

The cathedral square in Magdeburg is filling with people. You can see union flags, rainbow flags and many signs calling for a ban on the AfD.

Iris Mayer

Demonstration in Magdeburg – “Willy-Brandt-Platz is full of democrats”

The demonstration for an open society begins in front of the main train station in Magdeburg, on Willy-Brandt-Platz. It is directed against the right-wing extremist AfD, which, according to surveys, is likely to win the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt tomorrow, Sunday.

People demonstrate for an open society in front of the main train station in Magdeburg. Nicolas Richter/SZ

Many posters call for a ban on the AfD. One says: “AfD brings us inhumanity and violence.” The “Grandmas Against the Right” are particularly well represented. The organizers are currently explaining that the demo promotes tolerance, diversity and cosmopolitanism. She wants to set an example for democracy and human dignity. “The whole of Europe is watching us,” says one of the organizers to the cheers of those present. “Willy-Brandt-Platz is full of Democrats,” praises another.

Prien: Abolishing compulsory schooling would be a catastrophe

Federal Education Minister Karin Prien is strictly against the abolition of compulsory schooling called for by the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt. “Giving up compulsory schooling would be a socio-political catastrophe,” said the CDU politician to the German Press Agency. Instead, from the minister’s point of view, “we should think more about mandatory approaches in daycare”.

In its program for the state elections this Sunday, the AfD advocates freedom of choice between school and home education under the heading “Compulsory education instead of compulsory schooling”. Children who are educated at home should take central exams every six months.

From Prien's point of view, that would be the wrong approach. “I consider compulsory schooling to be one of the great achievements of the modern constitutional state,” said the minister. "Children need school as a place to learn and live. Children who don't go to school are at risk of significant psychological impairments." People from different backgrounds meet at school; they are places of integration and social interaction. “People already move far too much in their bubbles,” said Prien.

The state in no way forces children to attend state schools. Rather, parents could opt for private alternatives with different concepts, for example church or Montessori schools. However, there is state supervision and common rules for these schools.

Prien also said: “I believe that mandatory attendance at daycare and additional educational opportunities in daycare a year before school are absolutely necessary for those children who we identify as needing support.” The compulsory daycare year for everyone now announced in Baden-Württemberg would be a variant, she added. “But at least children with special needs should be in daycare in the last year before school.”

Thousands of people are expected to demonstrate in Magdeburg and Halle

Several thousand people are expected to take part in demonstrations and rallies in Saxony-Anhalt on the election weekend. According to police information, a dozen events have been registered in the state capital Magdeburg and several pro-democracy rallies in Halle (Saale). The largest will take place this afternoon on Magdeburg Cathedral Square: an alliance of trade unions and civil society is expecting around 8,000 participants here. In addition, the AfD, which is clearly ahead of the CDU in the polls and is hoping for a sole government, is officially concluding its election campaign.

The major election research institutes are not expecting a surprise like five years ago, when the AfD ultimately performed weaker on election day than in previous surveys and the CDU significantly stronger than expected. “We do not expect such a large mobilization effect in the last few days as in 2021,” said the head of the elections research group, Matthias Jung, to the German Press Agency. This time the AfD split