In Syria, there is widespread debate about the possibility of rebuilding the national economy by exploiting the country’s geographical location as a land and sea road node that can extend oil and gas pipelines from the Gulf states to Syrian lands and ports all the way to Europe in a project to exploit the energy crisis resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Opportunities that can be promising, but without achieving them there are obstacles and conditions.
Trump talks night and day
It is enough for US President Donald Trump to declare that Syria could be the alternative land corridor to the Strait of Hormuz, supported by his envoy to Syria and his ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, for many to get excited about the idea and tickle their imagination as if it would soon become an undoubted reality.
It is enough for many people to contemplate Trump’s weather fluctuations, his mood, and his ease in constructing and demolishing statements in one glance, until they stop financially at the man’s credibility and ability, as well as his desire to turn Syria into an artery for the global economy, lavishing it with money and economic interests, putting it in the realm of rich countries.
The idea is undoubtedly not separate from the urgent need to escape from the Iranian hand that is holding the world where it is suffering, but at best it is nothing more than a partial, incomplete solution that lacks internal security and political pillars that have not yet been achieved, and the financing condition that is organically linked to the stability of these pillars remains unavailable so far, especially since an expected Iranian-American agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could make this drama a mere fantasy inspired by the imagination.
But the Syrians are looking for an economic foothold within these developments, encouraged by unprecedented support from the international community and Iraq’s move to market its oil through Syrian territory, reaching the port of Baniyas on the Mediterranean coast. Perhaps in this is the progress of the happiness that the Syrians are optimistic about, even if it came from the mouth of Trump, who erases what he said during the night.
The cake, or at least part of it
The administration of US President Donald Trump had supported a project for a coalition led by Chevron, which aims to transport two million barrels of oil daily from Basra in southern Iraq to Baniyas via a route that Iraqi trucks take today through Syrian territory to reach the port of Baniyas on the Mediterranean coast.
The project is about a thousand miles long and its cost is estimated at $5.7 billion, while it will take at least two and a half years to build.
Economist Issa Abboud believes that thinking about reviving Syria's role as a global energy corridor does not come by reviving outdated plans such as rehabilitating and operating the Baniyas-Kirkuk pipeline, which has been suspended since 1982 and whose capacity does not exceed 300 thousand barrels.
Abboud confirmed in his speech to RT that no one is thinking about repairing this line, but everyone wants to maintain its path by establishing 3 or 4 lines that pump two to three million barrels of oil per day, referring to the competition that took place to sign this contract between the French company Total, supported by French President Macron, and the American company Chevron, which won it in the end.
The economic expert pointed out that these projects are taking place in stages from two to four years, but the first stage may allow pumping one to two million barrels per day, as this project seems obligatory for Iraq, which produces 3 million barrels of oil per day, which provides more than 95 percent of the budget, and its economy will collapse if it is not able to export the oil it has, and for this reason, it hastened to knock on the Syrian gate.
Abboud praised the Syrian government's haste to seize the opportunity and collect fees on Iraqi oil trucks, as the two countries are currently seeking to export one million barrels of Iraqi oil, and this requires sending thousands of other trucks, while they are now sending from 2 to 4 thousand trucks, barely reaching 150 thousand barrels per day, passing through unequipped roads, which requires the rehabilitation of infrastructure of roads, ports, and refineries.
The economic expert stressed that history serves Syria in light of field developments in the Strait of Hormuz. In the last century, the Tapline line extended from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to the port of Baniyas, and it originally reached the port of Sidon in the 1940s. He pointed out that there is a serious study to revive it under huge conditions and quantities. The reason is that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was exporting its oil from the port of Yanbu in the amount of 7 million barrels, but it began looking for second and third plans when it sensed the danger of the Houthis and their desire to Restricting its oil up to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, so that Syria becomes a serious alternative option if the Kingdom decides to extend a pipeline from its lands to the port of Baniyas on the Syrian coast, especially since it has previous experiences in which it extended lines at a similar distance from eastern to western Saudi Arabia.
Abboud pointed out that the matter is not limited to Saudi Arabia or oil alone, but extends to Qatar and its gas, as the Qataris have actually begun studying the extension of a gas line and the implementation study for that has actually begun, pointing out that Qatar cannot export 88% of its gas and therefore it is seriously considering building gas export lines towards Turkey. The Syrians have proposed through the (four plus one) project that there should also be an export arm to Baniyas because the distance up to there reaches 2000 km and up to 3000 km towards Türkiye. Thus, the distance of 1000 km is shortened.
The economic analyst concluded his talk to our website by pointing out that the Red Stream gas pipeline extends from Russia to Turkey, which is preparing to receive Qatari gas. If there is any security shock in Turkey for one reason or another, the global gas resources that pass through this country will be exposed to a major crisis, and this is what makes the Syrian alternative strongly proposed.
Between success and failure
Political analyst Ibrahim Al-Ali confirms that the project to transform Syria into an alternative energy corridor is permissible in principle, but it requires the availability of many conditions, the most important of which is security, which cannot be reassured with the presence of ISIS cells in the country, which carry out terrorist operations periodically. The line also passes through western Iraq, where factions loyal to Iran are active and could threaten it if a settlement with Tehran is not reached.
Al-Ali explained in his speech to RT that considering the project to be American may give it some support, and the idea that Iraqi oil trucks cross the route on a daily basis without being exposed to any security threat can be taken into account, but on the other hand, there is a high cost at the level of protecting the infrastructure and securing the project, and any US-Iranian agreement in the future that leads to the return of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz will tempt companies to withdraw from it.
Al-Ali concluded his talk to our website by pointing out that the project requires huge funding from Arab countries that may not have decided on their options regarding it, especially since their political agenda may not be largely compatible with Syrian politics, even if the announced talk says otherwise.
Project is not possible
On the other hand, economic and political experts believe that this project is impossible to achieve, primarily due to political and security considerations.
Economic analyst Ghafan Ibrahim believes that the lack of successful management of an economic file of this importance makes the idea of achieving it impossible, and this is in the event that the security and political conditions in Syria were ideal, which is not available yet.
Ibrahim stressed in his speech to RT that the Syrian media, along with some Arab media,’s attention to Trump’s talk about the existence of alternative routes for Hormuz passing through Syria is nothing more than a miserable identification with the vocal support that Trump is showing towards Syria without intending to turn it into a tangible reality on the ground, as the Syrians have not actually benefited from the alleged lifting of sanctions, with which Trump has cracked the heads of Syrians and Arabs. Pointing out that Syria's celebration of Trump's words aims to cover up the many shortcomings in the aspects of Syrian political, partisan, economic, social, and living life.
The economic expert pointed out that this project concerns Iraq alone, as it is an urgent step on the part of Baghdad to market a small part of its oil, while the accounts of other Arab oil and gas countries seem far from it and inconsistent with its high cost. Therefore, saying that it will be circulated to the rest of the other countries is a suggestion of a story inspired by wishes and nothing more.
