China News Service, September 29. On the afternoon of September 29, the China Meteorological Administration held a press conference for October 2026. At the meeting, Chao Qingchen, director of the National Climate Center, introduced the latest monitoring situation of El Niño.
Chao Qingchen said that my country uses sea surface temperature indicators in key sea areas of the Middle East and Pacific as the basis for El Niño-related judgments. When the sea surface temperature anomaly index (the difference between the average temperature of a certain period and the climate benchmark value of the same period) reaches or exceeds 0.5℃ for three consecutive months, it indicates that it has entered an El Niño state. If this state lasts for 5 months or more, it is determined to be an El Niño event. The intensity of El Niño events can be divided into four levels: weak events (peak values ≥0.5°C and <1.3°C), moderate events (≥1.3°C and <2.0°C), strong events (≥2.0°C and <2.5°C), and very strong events (≥2.5°C).
According to the National Climate Center monitoring, the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean has entered El Niño state in May 2026. After that, the SST index continued to rise rapidly, with the average value in summer (June-August) being 2.09°C, and the index in August reaching 2.59°C. Since September, the sea temperature in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean has continued to warm. The SST index in the monitoring areas of the 1st to 5th pentads was 2.70°C, 2.94°C, 3.01°C, 3.01°C, and 3.02°C respectively. This is the first time that the SST index has exceeded 3°C in the monsoon and decadal scales since there are monitoring records. According to the National Climate Center, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to fluctuate and rise. The peak of the sea temperature index is expected to occur around November, at 3.2°C to 3.5°C, which will be significantly higher than the historical maximum (2.8°C, the peak of the super El Niño event from 2014 to 2016), forming the strongest super El Niño event in the history of monitoring records.
Since monitoring records began, there have been three previous super strong El Niño events, occurring in 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. The current sea temperature monitoring index and its warming rate are significantly higher than the same period levels of the above three events.
Subsequently, Chao Qingchen pointed out that the rapid development of El Niño has a significant impact on the climate of my country's flood season this year. The precipitation in the central and eastern regions generally shows a pattern of "more in the north and south, less in the middle", with floods being more severe than droughts. The current El Niño will continue to develop and will have an impact on the climate of the world and my country this autumn and winter and next spring and summer.
It is expected that this autumn (October-November), most of the central and eastern parts of my country will receive more precipitation, with most parts of Jiangnan and the eastern part of the southwest region receiving 50% to 80% more precipitation. The risk of extreme precipitation, flash floods, landslides, debris flows, etc. will be high. Western China has generally more autumn rain, with a spatial distribution of "more in the south and less in the north". Southwest Inner Mongolia and the northeastern part of Northwest China will have less precipitation by more than 20% to 50%, with higher risks of meteorological drought and forest and grassland fires. There are 1 to 2 typhoons making landfall or affecting my country. The intensity is relatively strong, and they will mainly move westward and northwestward. The coastal areas of South China and East China are at high risk of heavy rains, floods, strong winds and storm surges.
It is expected that in the winter (December 2026 to February 2027), my country's temperatures will be generally higher, the frequency of cold waves will be slightly more frequent, and the temperature will fluctuate greatly. Precipitation will be generally high, and it is necessary to focus on preventing periodic strong cold waves and the impact of low-temperature rain and snow in the south. It is expected that El Niño will rapidly decay and end in the spring and summer of 2027, but its impact on my country's climate will still be significant. Extreme weather and climate events will increase, temperatures will be significantly higher, and summer high-temperature heat waves will be stronger and wider in scope.
