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Back日本也倒戈!各國路徑北修不登陸 北台威脅未解仍有6成侵襲率
日本也倒戈!各國路徑北修不登陸 北台威脅未解仍有6成侵襲率
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自由时报2 hours agoEnvironment1 min readChinaView translation

日本也倒戈!各國路徑北修不登陸 北台威脅未解仍有6成侵襲率

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強烈颱風薔琵持續逼近,各國預報紛紛北修路徑,日韓倒戈不再預測登陸台灣,而氣象署預測最東北上。儘管中心登陸機率降低,但暴風圈影響範圍廣闊,北北基宜花地區 typhoon 暴風侵襲機率仍達5、6成,宜蘭、基隆最高達61%。

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Why It Matters

颱風薔琵為強烈颱風,目前逼近台灣東部海域,各國氣象機構持續更新路徑預報。

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各國紛紛北修薔琵路徑不登陸,儘管颱風中心登陸機率降低,但廣闊的暴風圈影響,北北基宜花颱風暴風侵襲機率仍達5、6成左右。(圖擷自NCDR)

強烈颱風薔琵持續逼近,預估強度及暴風圈將進一步提升,各國最新路徑持續北修,日、韓紛紛倒戈,不再認為薔琵會登陸台灣,而是掠過台灣東北近海,而我國氣象署路徑仍是最東,認為在石垣島以東大角度北上。儘管颱風中心登陸機率降低,但薔琵廣闊的暴風圈影響,北北基宜花颱風暴風侵襲機率仍達5、6成左右。

根據中央氣象署觀測顯示,薔琵颱風今(20日)上午8時的中心位置在北緯16.0度、東經135.6度,過去6小時以時速21公里速度,向西北西進行;薔琵近中心風速達每秒55公尺,預估今晚至明(20日)天將達到強度巔峰,預估近中心風速恐達每秒60公尺,追平今年辛樂克、巴威、白海豚3颱最高風速紀錄,暴風圈也將擴大至300公里的巨型颱風。

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氣象署最新報告指出,台灣各主要城市及離島最新120小時颱風暴風侵襲機率北、東地區仍高,宜蘭、基隆最高達61%、台北56%、新北、花蓮54%、桃竹地區41-49%,中彰投以及台東在30-36%,彰化以南地區則在30%以下。

根據國家災害防救科技中心(NCDR)匯整今早各國最新颱風路徑預報,各國氣象機構預報紛紛北修,其中原先持續預估中心會直接登陸的日、韓兩國也倒戈,認為在東北角近海掠過,氣象署預測仍是最北,北轉角度最大,在石垣島以東北上;美、港則介於中間,在石垣島以西北上。

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Open Questions

  • 颱風薔琵最終路徑將如何變化?
  • 暴風圈是否會進一步擴大?
  • 離島地區是否會受到直接影響?

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This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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