U.S. media mentioned the “ultimate deal” between the U.S. and China: Taiwan swaps Cuba with Venezuela to divide spheres of influence

[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] As the strategic competition between the United States and China continues, the US media proposed the concept of "strategic reset" between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, advocating that the two sides make concessions on issues such as Taiwan, Venezuela, and Cuba, reduce each other's presence in each other's sphere of influence, and further clarify economic decoupling and spheres of influence to establish a long-term coexistence framework.

Recently, the US media "Washington Observer" published a commentary proposing a bold idea for the Trump-Xi meeting in Washington on September 24: The United States will stop military aid to Taiwan and close the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) in exchange for Chinese companies withdrawing from Cuba and Venezuela. The author believes that this "ultimate deal" can redefine the spheres of influence between the United States and China and establish a long-term coexistence model.

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It is worth noting that the relevant content of this article is only a comment and suggestion, not an official policy of the Trump administration.

The article pointed out that Xi Jinping is expected to meet with Trump in Washington on September 24. If this summit is not just a political show, the two sides must reach a specific and enforceable agreement and gradually implement it within the next two years.

According to the conception of the article, Trump could announce that the United States will stop delivering military equipment and supplies to Taiwan starting from December 31, 2028, close the office of the American Institute in Taiwan, and no longer recognize that the Diaoyu Islands (known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan) fall within the mutual defense scope of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty.

Xi Jinping must promise that by the end of 2028, all companies owned or controlled by Chinese companies operating in Cuba and Venezuela will cease operations or sell their holdings to non-mainland Chinese entities approved by the local governments.

In addition, Chinese entities must purchase at least US$30 billion in energy and agricultural products from companies owned or controlled by US companies. Part of the payment will be paid at face value on official Venezuelan debt held by China, while the rest will be settled in U.S. dollars.

The author believes that this deal represents the United States and China’s recognition of each other’s geostrategic realities. From the perspective of the United States, Trump is tantamount to acknowledging that Taiwan's reunification with China will not threaten the United States' major national interests, and the Diaoyutai Islands are not among the core interests that the United States must defend.

Beijing must admit that acquiring Venezuelan energy resources is not a major national interest for China, and Cuba, which lacks important strategic natural resources, is not worth a head-on conflict with the United States. In other words, Cuba and Venezuela are related to the interests of the United States, while Taiwan and the Diaoyu Islands are related to China's interests. Both sides can reduce the risk of conflict by withdrawing from each other's spheres of influence.

The commentary also suggested that the Trump-Xi meeting should discuss the spheres of influence of both sides, the degree of economic decoupling, the positioning of strategic partners such as the EU, Russia and Iran, as well as "neutral zones" such as Southeast Asia, South Asia and Africa where US and Chinese companies can compete. The above-mentioned issues can be further negotiated in the next year, and then finalized by Trump and Xi Jinping at the 2027 Beijing summit, so that the US-China relationship will shift from "mutually assured destruction" to "mutually assured survival."