Syria: Economic challenges and popular protests during the political transition

A man in eastern Syria complains about the skyrocketing fuel prices. He looks at the crowds who were filming him with their phones, and addresses the country's interim president, saying: "We stood with you, so stand with us. I swear to God, if things do not change between now and the new year, the situation will turn into something we do not want. Enough."

Security personnel monitor the scene while the man criticizes the government publicly, but what was their reaction after these criticisms: Nothing.

Thousands of Syrians poured into the streets earlier this month, in the largest wave of protests the country has witnessed since the fall of Bashar al-Assad nearly two years ago. In contrast to under the "police state" his family ran for 54 years - where open defiance of authority could mean imprisonment, torture, disappearance or death - this time the protesters were allowed to return to their homes.

Clips of the protests were widely circulated across state media, in stark contrast to the Assad era; State television at the time was promoting misinformation to discredit the protesters, including claims that the protests were staged and filmed in remote studios in Qatar.

Syria is currently going through a balancing act between its newly gained political freedom and an economic recovery that remains frustratingly elusive for ordinary citizens, many of whom are beginning to run out of patience.

The recent demonstrations were sparked by a sudden government decision to raise fuel prices by up to 40%, and the government attributed this to the global energy crisis resulting from the war in Iran.

As public anger escalated, the government reversed some of the increases and sent the Minister of Energy to appear before Parliament in a move aimed at demonstrating accountability.

Analysts praised the government's response to what is considered the biggest test of its economic resilience to date, but warned that the move would not change the fundamental foundations of the country's high-cost crisis.

World Bank estimates indicate that two-thirds of Syrians live below the poverty line for the lower middle income bracket, as their daily income is less than $3.65.

In a statement to CNN, Ibrahim Al-Aseel, director of the Syrian Transition Lab Program at Harvard Kennedy School, said: “We will see these protests repeated over and over again, as it is almost impossible to overcome the severe economic challenges that Syrians are suffering from.” He added: "The situation will become more difficult and challenging over time."

This economic pressure widens the gap between Syrians' expectations of their new government and their actual reality.

“It was inevitable that the honeymoon period would end,” says Charles Lister, director of the Syria programs at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. “People were expected to have high ambitions and become impatient if those expectations were not met. And that is exactly the situation we find ourselves in now.”

Interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa is racing against time to rebuild Syria - a task estimated to cost about $216 billion - before people run out of patience. He inherited a nearly bankrupt state that had been plundered by Assad and his entourage, making the new regime heavily dependent on foreign investment.

His strategy was to bring the country back onto the world stage after decades of isolation, and he is now seeking to turn this international momentum into tangible economic gains.

In this context, Al-Sharaa said before the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday: “Syria has regained its position in the international community and has become a crossing point for the world. We have also built diplomatic bridges and proven to the world that the security of the region must start from Damascus.”

Perhaps the best embodiment of this global openness to Sharia law is the friendly relationship between him and US President Donald Trump, whom he has met four times since last May. This relationship resulted in the complete lifting of all US sanctions imposed on Syria, which is the essential step to open the door to foreign investments.

Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have led the movement of foreign investments so far, investments that Syria estimated last year at about $28 billion. The European Union also pledged to provide support worth $2.7 billion, and French President Emmanuel Macron signed several new agreements in the areas of economy, transportation, and infrastructure during a visit to Damascus in July.

According to estimates by one expert on Syria, the new government has met with representatives of about 100 countries since it took power. In a gesture that reflects a realistic approach, Al-Sharaa maintains relations with both Russian President Vladimir Putin - the most prominent ally of the former regime - and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The strategic geographical location of Syria

The strategic importance of Syria's location appears in light of the current state of international division, as support for Syria's future has become a rare point of consensus, largely due to its geographical location. Syria is located in the heart of the Middle East, linking Asia and Europe through its ports overlooking the Mediterranean Sea.

This approach stems from the conviction that - just as the repercussions of the Syrian civil war extended beyond its borders, causing a migration crisis and paving the way for the rise of ISIS - a stable and prosperous Syria would enhance regional stability, encourage the return of refugees, and curb extremism.

In the midst of Iran-related tensions, Sharaa took advantage of Syria's strategic location to present it as a modern version of the "Silk Road", a commercial center that serves as an alternative land bridge to the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.

Practical steps have already begun to implement this idea, as thousands of trucks loaded with oil coming from southern Iraq cross Syrian territory to reach the port of Baniyas on the Mediterranean Sea.

However, these ambitious government plans have not yet yielded tangible results for ordinary Syrian citizens.

Lister believes that the international community sees a real opportunity to rebuild Syria's future, but it will take time.

He said: "The reality is that most of these projects are strategic projects that extend for ten years. They will not lead to reducing the price of bread, saving more fuel, or reducing its cost in Syria immediately."

Lister points out that the lifting of US sanctions has led to an influx of new investment projects - small and medium - that will provide job opportunities for the population at a faster pace.

He added: "This type of project provides a much greater opportunity to plant seeds that will lead to alleviating the challenges faced by ordinary Syrians. However, these problems will not be solved overnight; it will likely take another year or two."

Running out of "revolutionary" political capital

Karam Shaar, a Syrian political economist who runs a consulting firm, estimates that only 5% of promised deals have made significant progress.

The most prominent of these projects is the renovation of the energy infrastructure and Damascus airport, which is being implemented by UCC Holding, led by the influential Syrian-Qatari “Al-Khayyat” brothers.

“There is no doubt that the economy is recovering, but this is not the question that concerns the average citizen,” Shaar told CNN. “What really matters to him is whether his living conditions improve.”

Speaking to Reuters, a Syrian demonstrator named Bassam Al-Ali complained that the government was focusing on huge deals instead of improving the standard of living and reducing the costs of life.

Addressing Al-Sharaa, he said: “We do not want roundabouts. Every day they build a new roundabout at great cost, shopping centers, etc. Let the people live. Your people have stood with you, and they are still with you, and they will continue to be so, but this situation may lead to things exploding.”

Al-Asil warned that as economic discontent increases, the “revolutionary legitimacy” gained by Al-Shara’s government may fade. He added: "Buying people's patience requires allowing them to participate, and making them feel that their voices are heard."

Israel

Even if the government can bridge the gap between international investment and tangible economic improvement in everyday life, it faces another hurdle that is largely outside its control: This is an obstacle that Al-Shara explicitly referred to during his speech at the United Nations on Wednesday.

He said: “The world is pleased with our return, but Israel is launching attacks against Syria. This contradicts the trends that we see at the global level.”

Al-Sharaa estimated that Israel has carried out nearly 500 strikes inside Syria since he took power. Israel also occupies large parts of southern Syria, and Israeli officials have stated that the army plans to remain there indefinitely.

Israel claims that it does not trust Sharia law and that it needs a security buffer zone to prevent terrorist attacks on its territory, while Syria - which is exhausted by war - asserts that it does not want to enter into a conflict with its neighbor.

It is noteworthy that the two parties have been holding direct talks since August of last year.

Al-Sharaa stated on Tuesday, during a discussion session organized by the Atlantic Council in New York, that the negotiations “achieved 90% consensus” before Israel withdrew from them for “various” reasons.

Lister points out that the instability resulting from Israeli practices is a major concern for investors who inquire about opportunities in Syria.

He said: "If Israel continues its current approach after its elections (scheduled for October), the possibility of more foreign investments flowing into Syria will diminish, because it is waving a huge hammer over Damascus's head."

He added: "This particular issue is considered a fundamental pillar in discussions related to economic recovery, just like the issues of sanctions, investment prospects, and small and medium enterprises. The Israeli role is no less important than these issues."