(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) For some time, the Trump administration has not threatened to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports, nor has it threatened to further tighten U.S. technology exports to China. This phenomenon is in contrast to the tough signals frequently released before previous summits.
Experts point out that the main reason is that China almost completely controls the rare earth mineral supply chain. Last year, after Trump announced the imposition of high tariffs on China, China quickly took countermeasures and restricted rare earth exports. The global rare earth supply chain was disrupted, and the trade war between the two countries came to an end.
China's actions have actually limited Washington's space to exert pressure on Beijing, allowing China to gain a greater strategic advantage in its years-long technological competition with the United States.
Emily Kilcrease, a researcher at the Center for a New American Security, a U.S. think tank, and a former U.S. trade official, said: "The situation has fundamentally changed when the United States and the Trump administration are dealing with China now. In light of a series of events that occurred last summer, including China's implementation of rare earth export controls, they can no longer adopt the highly coercive and over-expansionary approach they used in the past because they know that they may eventually have to withdraw some of their measures."
According to data from American management consulting firm AlixPartners, China controls about 70% of the world's rare earth mining, 85% of the world's rare earth refining capacity, and about 90% of the world's rare earth metal alloy and magnet production capacity. Rare earth elements such as yttrium and dysprosium are key raw materials for strategic industries such as automobile manufacturing, chip production and the defense industry, and constitute an important bottleneck in the global supply chain.
Restrictive measures against China weakened
The Trump administration has taken some repressive measures against China recently, but experts believe that these measures are significantly weaker than in the past and were announced several months before the summit. This is likely to avoid angering Beijing before the meeting.
For example, in June this year, the U.S. Department of Defense accused Alibaba, BYD and other companies of providing support to the Chinese military.
In July, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened that any Chinese artificial intelligence companies suspected of copying U.S. artificial intelligence models may face sanctions.
In the same month, the United States banned the import of products from 43 Chinese companies on the grounds of suspected human rights violations; it also banned the import of some new foreign-produced robots and inverters, targeting Chinese companies.
Peter Harrell, a White House official who served in the Biden administration, said that after experiencing the rare earth crisis, the Trump administration felt its vulnerability to pressure from China and was therefore seeking "stable and secure access to critical mineral resources."
Expert: Xi Jinping wins the game between two people
Just this month, President Trump said of Xi Jinping, "He's a great gentleman; we get along very well," and "We have a very good trade relationship, you know, they're competitors, but we have a very good relationship with President Xi Jinping."
Agence France-Presse commented that President Trump has been open to Xi Jinping on many issues. He also tried to use tariffs against China, but the results were counterproductive. Unable to change China, Trump turned to hospitality.
President Trump visited Beijing in May this year, and the two leaders will have two more opportunities to meet in person at international summits this year. It is reported that before Xi Jinping’s visit, Trump had prepared a helicopter pad on the South Lawn of the White House and regretfully stated that his banquet hall was not yet able to receive the Chinese leader.
Michael Kovrig, senior adviser to the International Crisis Group, said, "Trump has drastically changed his strategy toward China because his initial attempt to use ultra-high tariffs and export restrictions failed." "Xi Jinping and Trump launched a power game, and Xi Jinping won."
Kovrig is a former Canadian diplomat. China detained Michael Kovrig after Huawei financial officer Meng Wanzhou was placed under house arrest in Canada. He pointed out that Trump has largely weakened the economic and national security alliances that can exert pressure on China.
U.S. Republican Congressman John Moolenaar has always advocated taking a tough stance against China. He is the chairman of the House Select Committee on China. In an interview with Reuters, Mueller said, "President Trump is entering this summit in a strong position."
However, Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder of Silverado Policy Accelerator, a geopolitical think tank in Washington, believes that Washington is unlikely to take more aggressive actions against China until the United States finds alternative sources of supply of critical minerals. He predicted at an event on Sino-US competition last week that "since the Busan meeting last year, China and the United States have actually been in a subtle and fragile truce, and I think this state will continue to be maintained."
